When Snow Prayers Work Too Well

The boundary between meteorology and religion has always been an amorphous one, with considerable overlap.

In ancient times, Gods were considered the prime movers of weather events, and societies were always looking for the proper supplication to the get rain, snow, or whatever else they hoped for.

But even today, with all our technology and science, folks desperately hoping for a specific weather outcome  frequently turn to praying to the powers up high.

And so it was, last Friday, when a group of snow-hungry skiers, egged on by the management of Snoqualmie Summit ski area, held a prayer vigil in North Bend at Compass Sports (see below).   They prayed, drank libations to certain weather gods, and attempted well-rehearsed weather dances. 

And it worked.  It appears that the gods heard the plaintive cries, and snow has begun to fall in the Cascades.  Before the week is up, there will be feet of white stuff in the mountains and most ski areas will be open for business.

Consider the the forecast total snowfall over the next 72h over Washington. Wow.  2-3 feet over the Washington Cascades and Olympics

Now take a deep breath before you look at the next image.  Here is the total snowfall for the next 72h.   More heavy snow in the mountains.  But there is something even more shocking....snow reaching the lowlands, something not seen since last December.  Our ski friends are going to go powder crazy.

But now the real shocker.  The latest model runs suggest the snow is not going to end.  Now take three deep breaths. 

Here is the ensemble (many model) forecast for total snowfall at Stampede Pass (4000 ft on the eastern side of the central WA Cascades) from the NWS GFS model.   The gray lines are many lower-resolution model forecasts and the blue line is a single higher resolution.  The black lines is the ensemble mean...the average of all the gray lines--normally a very good forecast. 

WOW...just continuous accumulation.

What about the best global model in the world, the European Center model?  Here is the total snowfall during the next 7 days from that vaunted forecast system:

3-4 feet of snow about roughly 3500 ft.  But no lowland snow.

The ski community is going to be ecstatic about what is going to happen.  Great skiing from next weekend through the holiday season.  The snowpack needed for summer water resources will get a huge enhancement.

But might we have too much of a good thing?  Could the prayers move in the opposite direction?  Pleading to the snow gods to turn down onslaught?  Trust me, it has happened before.

from Cliff Mass Weather and Climate Blog https://ift.tt/2ElqAQX