Ridgezilla Returns

Yes....it is a back.  A huge persistent ridge of high pressure that won't go away.    You know its name:
Ridgezilla.

And because of this monstrous high pressure, it won't rain at least for a week.  Our temperatures will be above normal.  Afternoons will have sun.  Absolutely perfect fall weather.

Let's me show you this unnatural creature through a series of upper-level (500 hPa pressure level, about 18,000 ft) maps. 

The forecast map for 2 PM Saturday shows a huge ridge of high heights (or pressures) over the northeast Pacific.

 5 PM Monday?  Still there!

 8 AM Wednesday has the ridge in place, but displaced a bit to the east.   Still protecting us from the rain monster.

 And it moves back and strengths at 5 PM Friday.  Wow. 

But what about the weather at the surface?   The best thing to look at are ensembles of many forecasts that can help us understand probabilities and uncertainties.  Looking at the 21 forecast National Weather Service GEFS precipitation ensemble at Sea-Tac, it is clear that they are insistent we will get nothing.

The temperature ensembles show a warming trend to near 70F on Wednesday and above-normal temperatures the rest of the period.

Folks...this one is pretty much in the bag... so get outside and enjoy it.  The only issue might be some morning clouds Saturday morning and later in the week.  But those will burn off by lunchtime.
______________________________
Announcement:  Initiative 1631 Debate

There will be a debate at UW at 5 PM Tuesday afternoon about the carbon-fee initiative.  Located in room 301 Gowan Hall.   Everyone is invited.  More information below. 

And if you want to prep yourself by reading the 38 pages of the initiative, a pdf of it is here.



from Cliff Mass Weather and Climate Blog https://ift.tt/2QN0JTU