A Cool Month, But Lots of Sun in Our Future

November is usually a wet month in the Northwest, but the first 2-3 weeks of October are often quite decent.  And some exceptionally nice weather is ahead of us this week.

The last 30 days have been cooler than normal over the Northwest (see image), with Montana being absolutely frigid for this time of the year.  The southwest interior was warmer than normal.

Precipitation was near normal for most of the West, except moister than normal in western Washington and in hurricane-ravaged Arizona (Hurricane Rosa).

Today was a drippy day, but wait until things change tomorrow, with major ridging (high pressure) over the region.  Buy some suntan lotion, you will need it.

Let me illustrate with some upper-level (500-hPa) charts.  Today at 8 PM, a major ridge is offshore, but a weak trough is moving over us, bringing clouds and light showers.

By 2 AM Wednesday, the ridge is moving towards us, resulting in a drying transition.

 Thursday at 5 AM, the ridge pushes over us, bringing warming and no precipitation.

 And by Saturday at 2 PM, a huge ridge over the coast.

 And even more so at 11 PM Sunday.

Looking at the National Weather Service GEFS ensembles (running many forecasts), the rain will be over by tomorrow AM:

And temperatures will steadily climb--to near 70F by this weekend!

This weekend will be perfect for a fall hike, a bike ride, or like me, the Dawg Dash on Sunday at the UW.  My little dog LOVES the dog dash, a fun run that helps support scholarships at the UW.    Perfect fall weather and the leaves are starting to turn.  This is why we live here rather than in arid, weather boring places like San Diego.

from Cliff Mass Weather and Climate Blog https://ift.tt/2QEjGbE