The Olympics Protect Puget Sound From Westerly Atmospheric Rivers/ Initiative 1631 Reminder

The Olympics Mountains play a critical role in the meteorology of the Puget Sound region and this week it is shielding us from most of the moisture associated with a series of modest atmospheric rivers.

But our friends on the western sides of the Olympics and Cascades will not be as lucky with substantial rain expected. 

During the past several days, the winds aloft have been westerly (from the west), so we have been in the rainshadow of the Olympics, even though a strong, moist flow has approached the region.

During the past 72 hrs, while Tacoma to Everett has only gotten around .10 inches, locations on the western slopes of the Cascades have "enjoyed"  2-4 inches of rain, with 1-2 inches on the western side of the coastal mountains.

But this is just a "warm up" for  this week.  Early Friday morning a modest atmospheric river comes in from the southwest (the figure shows the forecast moisture in a vertical column).

Another on Saturday from a more westerly direction:

 And even more on Monday.

The predicted total for the next 7 days, shown below, is impressive, with 5-10 inches in and to the immediate of the mountain crests.  But if you look very closely, there is far less downstream of the Olympics--that is the rainshadow.

If you really want to impress your friends, tell them that some of the moisture hitting us Saturday will be streaming across the entire north Pacific, as shown by the following plot of moisture at roughly 5000 ft above sea level for Saturday at 6 PM.

_________________________________________

Initiative 1631:  Bad for the environment and for Washington State

I-1631 is poorly written, will do little to reduce greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere, gives control of billions of dollars to an unelected board, is regressive, so it hurts low-income folks the most, has no concrete plan for spending vast sums of money, is highly partisan, and is odds with our basic democratic principles.  I have written three blogs describing its problems:

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2018/10/initiative-i-1631-at-odds-with.html

 https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2018/10/if-worry-about-climate-change-and-care.html

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2018/04/the-carbon-fee-initiative-1631-has.html

The pro-side has been highly deceptive, saying things that are demonstrably not true.  Their mailers are telling folks that big polluters and oil companies will pay:  this is a total falsehood.  Everyone will pay.

If you want to find out how much 1631 will cost you, check out this handy app.  For most working adults, the 1631 fee will run between 150 and 300 dollars the first year (depending on your transportation choices, living arrangements, etc.).

The Yes side suggests that the initiative will have a significant impact on greenhouse warming.  Simply not true.   Let's assume that the initiative produces the promised reductions in emissions (down by 20 million metric tons in 2035 and by at least 50 million metric tons by 2050).  If one plugs this into a climate model, one gets a global cooling of about .0001 degree C.   Washington represents a very, very small part of global emissions and we are already quite green.

Today, the Yes on 1631 side has gone even further in its false stories.   They accused the No folks of adding names to their endorsement list without permission.   This has gotten a lot of press....but it is totally false. The No side has SIGNED endorsement sheets from everyone noted as endorsing (and these signed endorsement sheets were shared with the Seattle Times).

And with all the tall tales provided by the YES on 1631 side, their advertisements accuse the No side of lying. 

Truth and ethics matter.  It is ironic that the Yes side is following the approaches of the President they despise,  with false stories, inaccurate information, wild claims, and name calling become stock and trade of the Yes on 1631 side.

There is a religious fervor by some 1631 supporters to do something RIGHT NOW or the world will end.   The truth is the best science does NOT suggest a sudden tipping point, and doing something of little value is both wasteful and prevents more effective actions.  American's has rushed into "doing something" without a real plan and it has gotten us into trouble before (e.g., Iraq, Vietnam).  1631 would be a similar error, but for our state.

from Cliff Mass Weather and Climate Blog https://ift.tt/2PAlPIh

The Olympics Protect Puget Sound From Westerly Atmospheric Rivers/ Initiative 1631 Reminder

The Olympics Mountains play a critical role in the meteorology of the Puget Sound region and this week it is shielding us from most of the moisture associated with a series of modest atmospheric rivers.

But our friends on the western sides of the Olympics and Cascades will not be as lucky with substantial rain expected. 

During the past several days, the winds aloft have been westerly (from the west), so we have been in the rainshadow of the Olympics, even though a strong, moist flow has approached the region.

During the past 72 hrs, while Tacoma to Everett has only gotten around .10 inches, locations on the western slopes of the Cascades have "enjoyed"  2-4 inches of rain, with 1-2 inches on the western side of the coastal mountains.

But this is just a "warm up" for  this week.  Early Friday morning a modest atmospheric river comes in from the southwest (the figure shows the forecast moisture in a vertical column).

Another on Saturday from a more westerly direction:

 And even more on Monday.

The predicted total for the next 7 days, shown below, is impressive, with 5-10 inches in and to the immediate of the mountain crests.  But if you look very closely, there is far less downstream of the Olympics--that is the rainshadow.

If you really want to impress your friends, tell them that some of the moisture hitting us Saturday will be streaming across the entire north Pacific, as shown by the following plot of moisture at roughly 5000 ft above sea level for Saturday at 6 PM.

_________________________________________

Initiative 1631:  Bad for the environment and for Washington State

I-1631 is poorly written, will do little to reduce greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere, gives control of billions of dollars to an unelected board, is regressive, so it hurts low-income folks the most, has no concrete plan for spending vast sums of money, is highly partisan, and is odds with our basic democratic principles.  I have written three blogs describing its problems:

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2018/10/initiative-i-1631-at-odds-with.html

 https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2018/10/if-worry-about-climate-change-and-care.html

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2018/04/the-carbon-fee-initiative-1631-has.html

The pro-side has been highly deceptive, saying things that are demonstrably not true.  Their mailers are telling folks that big polluters and oil companies will pay:  this is a total falsehood.  Everyone will pay.

If you want to find out how much 1631 will cost you, check out this handy app.  For most working adults, the 1631 fee will run between 150 and 300 dollars the first year (depending on your transportation choices, living arrangements, etc.).

The Yes side suggests that the initiative will have a significant impact on greenhouse warming.  Simply not true.   Let's assume that the initiative produces the promised reductions in emissions (down by 20 million metric tons in 2035 and by at least 50 million metric tons by 2050).  If one plugs this into a climate model, one gets a global cooling of about .0001 degree C.   Washington represents a very, very small part of global emissions and we are already quite green.

Today, the Yes on 1631 side has gone even further in its false stories.   They accused the No folks of adding names to their endorsement list without permission.   This has gotten a lot of press....but it is totally false. The No side has SIGNED endorsement sheets from everyone noted as endorsing (and these signed endorsement sheets were shared with the Seattle Times).

And with all the tall tales provided by the YES on 1631 side, their advertisements accuse the No side of lying. 

Truth and ethics matter.  It is ironic that the Yes side is following the approaches of the President they despise,  with false stories, inaccurate information, wild claims, and name calling become stock and trade of the Yes on 1631 side.

There is a religious fervor by some 1631 supporters to do something RIGHT NOW or the world will end.   The truth is the best science does NOT suggest a sudden tipping point, and doing something of little value is both wasteful and prevents more effective actions.  American's has rushed into "doing something" without a real plan and it has gotten us into trouble before (e.g., Iraq, Vietnam).  1631 would be a similar error, but for our state.

from Cliff Mass Weather and Climate Blog https://ift.tt/2PAlPIh

A Strong Atmospheric River Should Hit the Northwest Next Weekend

A series of moderate atmospheric rivers will hit the Northwest this week, followed by a major one over the weekend.  Serious rain in the mountains.

Earlier this fall, the National Weather Service was going for a dry autumn for our region (see below).  That is NOT going to happen.

The last 72-h has been wet enough, with 4-5 inches along the western slopes of the Cascades, 3-4 inches in the Olympics and 1-2 inches over Puget Sound, which is rainshadowed by the Olympics,  Eastern Washington had much less of course (click on image below to enlarge).

But hold on to your hats....Pacific moisture has big plans for us.  Plumes of moisture will move around a region of high pressure off of California and then produce substantial precipitation as is it forced to rise by our region terrain.

You know that name of these currents of high moisture values:  atmospheric rivers. 

Below I will show you a series of forecast column-integrated water vapor, basically summing up the water vapor in a vertical column.  Red is high, white and blue are very high.

The first one hits on Wednesday morning, with moderately high values moving in from the west.

Thursday night and Friday morning, another weak one.

But Saturday morning is another thing...much stronger and heading directly from the west.

Now moisture is important, but so is wind.  A strong wind pushes more moisture up the terrain, producing more precipitation.  And, of course, we can quantify this, using something called IVT:  Integrated Vapor Transport.  Throw that term around and you will either impress your friends or be classified as a hopeless nerd.

Well, in any case, here is the IVT for Saturday morning.  OMG.  This is serious.

With lots of moisture pushing westward, the 48h precipitation ending 5 AM Monday is substantial, with as much as 5-10 inches in the Cascades.

But if you really want to be impressed, here is the total precipitation forecast for the next 7 days. Wow.  Most of the higher terrain gets 5-10 inches, with several inches in the lowlands.  Because the winds are from the west, the interior lowland (e.g., Puget Sound) will be partially rainshadowed by the Olympics.

 Rivers will rise, reservoirs will fill.  And unfortunately, the long-term forecast will prove unskillful.

from Cliff Mass Weather and Climate Blog https://ift.tt/2DcExAb

A Strong Atmospheric River Should Hit the Northwest Next Weekend

A series of moderate atmospheric rivers will hit the Northwest this week, followed by a major one over the weekend.  Serious rain in the mountains.

Earlier this fall, the National Weather Service was going for a dry autumn for our region (see below).  That is NOT going to happen.

The last 72-h has been wet enough, with 4-5 inches along the western slopes of the Cascades, 3-4 inches in the Olympics and 1-2 inches over Puget Sound, which is rainshadowed by the Olympics,  Eastern Washington had much less of course (click on image below to enlarge).

But hold on to your hats....Pacific moisture has big plans for us.  Plumes of moisture will move around a region of high pressure off of California and then produce substantial precipitation as is it forced to rise by our region terrain.

You know that name of these currents of high moisture values:  atmospheric rivers. 

Below I will show you a series of forecast column-integrated water vapor, basically summing up the water vapor in a vertical column.  Red is high, white and blue are very high.

The first one hits on Wednesday morning, with moderately high values moving in from the west.

Thursday night and Friday morning, another weak one.

But Saturday morning is another thing...much stronger and heading directly from the west.

Now moisture is important, but so is wind.  A strong wind pushes more moisture up the terrain, producing more precipitation.  And, of course, we can quantify this, using something called IVT:  Integrated Vapor Transport.  Throw that term around and you will either impress your friends or be classified as a hopeless nerd.

Well, in any case, here is the IVT for Saturday morning.  OMG.  This is serious.

With lots of moisture pushing westward, the 48h precipitation ending 5 AM Monday is substantial, with as much as 5-10 inches in the Cascades.

But if you really want to be impressed, here is the total precipitation forecast for the next 7 days. Wow.  Most of the higher terrain gets 5-10 inches, with several inches in the lowlands.  Because the winds are from the west, the interior lowland (e.g., Puget Sound) will be partially rainshadowed by the Olympics.

 Rivers will rise, reservoirs will fill.  And unfortunately, the long-term forecast will prove unskillful.

from Cliff Mass Weather and Climate Blog https://ift.tt/2DcExAb

The Spigot Turns On

We can now look back on our dry season as we turn to the wet portion of the year.  As shown in the plot below, which shows the observed (purple) and normal (blue) accumulated precipitation since 1 May at Sea-Tac, we have clearly had a dry summer, receiving about 5.5 inches less than normal.

Looking at nearly the same 6-month period, but with a regional view (see below), shows that western Washington and Oregon had the largest dry anomalies in the western U.S., running about 4-8 inches below normal in the lowlands and even drier on the western slopes of the Cascades.   Arizona, hit by Hurricane Rosa, was a wet spot.

Kind of interesting...if you wanted a dry anomaly...head to western WA.  Wet anomaly.... Arizona.

Well, the dry anomaly is about to disappear.   Here is the total precipitation forecast for the region over the next week, based on the UW WRF forecasts. 2-5 inches over the mountains, with some favored terrain areas (e.g., Olympics, Vancouver Is) getting over 5 inches (red colors).  1-2 inches over Puget Sound.

To get a longer-lead view, here is the latest 384 hr (16 day) total precipitation from the National Weather Service GFS system (see below).  California is dry, but much of western Washington will receive more than 4 inches and the mountains hit by as much as 10-15 inches.  If this verifies, much of the summer deficit will be made up by mid-November and our reservoirs will start filling in a major way.

Finally, it is really pouring around the Northwest on Saturday night...the 7 PM radar image is impressive.  Yellow is heavy rain.

It will rain overnight, with showers and blustery winds tomorrow.  The meteorological faucet had been turned on for the winter.  Enjoy.

from Cliff Mass Weather and Climate Blog https://ift.tt/2PqaR83

The Spigot Turns On

We can now look back on our dry season as we turn to the wet portion of the year.  As shown in the plot below, which shows the observed (purple) and normal (blue) accumulated precipitation since 1 May at Sea-Tac, we have clearly had a dry summer, receiving about 5.5 inches less than normal.

Looking at nearly the same 6-month period, but with a regional view (see below), shows that western Washington and Oregon had the largest dry anomalies in the western U.S., running about 4-8 inches below normal in the lowlands and even drier on the western slopes of the Cascades.   Arizona, hit by Hurricane Rosa, was a wet spot.

Kind of interesting...if you wanted a dry anomaly...head to western WA.  Wet anomaly.... Arizona.

Well, the dry anomaly is about to disappear.   Here is the total precipitation forecast for the region over the next week, based on the UW WRF forecasts. 2-5 inches over the mountains, with some favored terrain areas (e.g., Olympics, Vancouver Is) getting over 5 inches (red colors).  1-2 inches over Puget Sound.

To get a longer-lead view, here is the latest 384 hr (16 day) total precipitation from the National Weather Service GFS system (see below).  California is dry, but much of western Washington will receive more than 4 inches and the mountains hit by as much as 10-15 inches.  If this verifies, much of the summer deficit will be made up by mid-November and our reservoirs will start filling in a major way.

Finally, it is really pouring around the Northwest on Saturday night...the 7 PM radar image is impressive.  Yellow is heavy rain.

It will rain overnight, with showers and blustery winds tomorrow.  The meteorological faucet had been turned on for the winter.  Enjoy.

from Cliff Mass Weather and Climate Blog https://ift.tt/2PqaR83

First Wind Event of the Winter Season

It blustery out there this morning as a Pacific cyclone passed to our north.  As shown by the maximum gust map, winds gusted to 30-40 mph in exposed areas around Puget Sound and 40-55 mph in the mountains.

The cause?   A low center that moved into central British Columbia (see pressure analysis at  5AM this morning,  below).  The low center was not something you would write home about (991 hPa), but there was a strong pressure gradient south of the low that caused winds to accelerate from the south.

A higher resolution map at 8 AM shows the large pressure gradient more clearly.  The lines are isobars, lines of constant pressure, and the pressure gradient is greatest when the lines are closer together.  Large pressure gradient or change means strong winds.

The infrared satellite image at 5 AM this morning shows the tight low pressure making landfall on the BC coast (look for tightly curved clouds associated with the low center)

The visible satellite image at 1 PM today was beautiful....and very typical of winter.  A well formed cyclone and attendant fronts was east of the west coast and south of the Aleutians.    You see the "popcorn-like" clouds swirling into it?  That indicates great vertical instability with cold air over much warmer water.  A frontal band was sweeping into the Pacific Northwest, and a little "comma cloud", associate with an upper-level trough was due west of Vancouver Is.   A great image to use in class.

 Tomorrow (Saturday) show be dry in the morning and early/mid afternoon for Puget Sound, but substantial rain will move in during the evening.  Heavy rain overnight and more showers on Sunday.   As I warned in a previous blog, we have made the winter transition, and you won't see too many dry days in a row for a while.





from Cliff Mass Weather and Climate Blog https://ift.tt/2O5qmOc

First Wind Event of the Winter Season

It blustery out there this morning as a Pacific cyclone passed to our north.  As shown by the maximum gust map, winds gusted to 30-40 mph in exposed areas around Puget Sound and 40-55 mph in the mountains.

The cause?   A low center that moved into central British Columbia (see pressure analysis at  5AM this morning,  below).  The low center was not something you would write home about (991 hPa), but there was a strong pressure gradient south of the low that caused winds to accelerate from the south.

A higher resolution map at 8 AM shows the large pressure gradient more clearly.  The lines are isobars, lines of constant pressure, and the pressure gradient is greatest when the lines are closer together.  Large pressure gradient or change means strong winds.

The infrared satellite image at 5 AM this morning shows the tight low pressure making landfall on the BC coast (look for tightly curved clouds associated with the low center)

The visible satellite image at 1 PM today was beautiful....and very typical of winter.  A well formed cyclone and attendant fronts was east of the west coast and south of the Aleutians.    You see the "popcorn-like" clouds swirling into it?  That indicates great vertical instability with cold air over much warmer water.  A frontal band was sweeping into the Pacific Northwest, and a little "comma cloud", associate with an upper-level trough was due west of Vancouver Is.   A great image to use in class.

 Tomorrow (Saturday) show be dry in the morning and early/mid afternoon for Puget Sound, but substantial rain will move in during the evening.  Heavy rain overnight and more showers on Sunday.   As I warned in a previous blog, we have made the winter transition, and you won't see too many dry days in a row for a while.





from Cliff Mass Weather and Climate Blog https://ift.tt/2O5qmOc