Let's start by checking out reservoir levels. In Seattle, the current reservoir levels (red) are well above normal (blue). And there is plenty more rain predicted for the next few weeks. Looks good.
The Yakima River reservoir system is critical for water supply in Eastern Washington, and as shown below, the current water storage (blue line) is way above normal (red line).
Examining the current storage in the massive California reservoir system (shown below), one notes the all reservoirs are at or above normal levels, except for Lake Oroville, which is being kept artificially low because of the severe damage of last winter.
The current U.S. drought monitors shows do drought from central CA to Washington, and dry (but not drought) conditions over southern CA and a few locations in Oregon.
The latest weather forecast model runs indicate a very wet future from central CA to British Columbia. The 15-day totals from the National Weather Service GFS model has 5-10 inches over much of the Coasts, with 10-15 inches over the Sierra Nevada and the coastal mountains of northern CA and southern Oregon.
To put it another way, we are starting today with reservoirs in good shape, generally with above-normal levels from northern CA to Washington. Heavy precipitation will erase much of the modest deficits of the early winter, resulting in near normal precipitation values for the winter season so far.
And considering that we have a moderate La Nina in place, the precipitation will probably be heavier than normal for much of the remaining winter from central CA to the Pacific Northwest. This is suggested by a composite of winter (Nov.-March) precipitation for a moderate La Nina year (like this year).
The bottom line: the water resource outlook is favorable for the upcoming winter and summer.
from Cliff Mass Weather and Climate Blog http://ift.tt/2B8ukz5
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