It is looking increasingly likely that Hurricane Irma will take a more western route than initially predicted, with negative implications for the west coast of Florida and more benign conditions for Miami and the populous eastern side of the peninsula.
The NWS Key West weather radar at 9:34 PM EDT Saturday was clearly picking up the storm's eye and spiral rain bands.
Wind gusts so far have gotten to 55-65 mph at some coastal locations, with the worst yet to come.
The European Center Model has been the most skillful weather prediction model for this storm, and its latest forecasts (initialized Saturday morning) has most forecast tracks (from its ensemble system) moving up the Florida West coast (see graphic courtesy of WeatherBell Analytics).
As I noted in my last blog, this is a VERY hard forecast, with the storm predicted to make a sharp right turn near a relatively narrow peninsula. Small errors in position and time of the turn have HUGE implications for the forecasts. The storm has also weakened substantially (now a category 3), with the latest model runs suggesting some intensification (perhaps to a cat 4, but NOT a cat 5).
Let me show you the pressure and surface (sustained) wind predictions from the European model, courtesy of WeatherBell. At 8 AM EDT Sunday, Irma is nearly over the Florida Keys,
By 8 PM Sunday (EDT), the eye is near the SW Florida coast,
And near Tampa at 8 AM Monday. The strongest winds stay on the west side of the Peninsula, where substantial damage would occur.
Similarly, the largest precipitation totals (5-15 inches) remain over the west side the peninsula (see graphic). A huge storm surge is probable along the western shores.
In a later blog, I will analyze the predictions of the various modeling systems for this event.
from Cliff Mass Weather and Climate Blog http://ift.tt/2vXaPMb
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