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Tuesday, August 22, 2017

Meteorological Effects of the Eclipse...and more

I returned home last night viewing the total eclipse (I was position within the Ochoco National Forest of eastern Oregon).

I was really moved by the experience...the period of rapid darkening before totality is strange and unsettling, and totality is other wordly, with a huge corona that pictures don't do justice.  

The darkening of the eclipse was very obvious in visible satellite imagery....here are two shot at 10:15 AM, one (left) for eclipse day (August 21st) and the other from the day before



I had my trusty digital thermometer with me and I was impressed by eclipse-related temperature decline from 72 to 59F (13F) between 9:30 and 10:30 AM (totality started roughly at 10:20 AM and was a little less than 2 minutes long at the centerline).

Other places in eastern Oregon had declines even larger (14-15F).  For example,  John Day, Oregon declined 14.9F (see graph below)


Keep in mind that the cooling effect of the sun is even greater than these number, because under normal sun, the air temperatures would have continued to warm from the strengthening morning sun.  So think about a cooling impact of 15-20F...that is impressive!

What about here in Seattle?   At the top of the atmospheric sciences building on the UW campus, temperatures dropped about 4F (see below).  But there are some subtleties you might find interesting.

This plot of weather conditions at the UW on August 21st  includes the solar radiation (lower panel).    A big chunk was taken out by the eclipse (time is in UTC, so 18Z is 11 AM).  Temperatures were suppressed for a few hours, with a decline of about 4F from what occurred before and perhaps 5-6F from what would have occurred.   Wind speed dropped a bit during the eclipse and was less variable (top panel).

Why?   Because the weakening of solar heating at the surface lessened the vertical mixing of thermals in the lower atmosphere.  Less mixing means less downward movement of stronger winds aloft and reduced variability.  Wind direction shifted noticeably with the eclipse, shifting from northerly to southwesterly.

In other parts of the country, the reduced heating greatly attenuated the development of cumulus clouds, which are also driven by solar heating at the surface.

Here are two GOES-16 visible satellite images, one at 1722 UTC (1222  PM EDT), before the eclipse, and the other at 1947 UTC (2:47 PM) EDT, after the eclipse.  The small cumulus are nearly gone after the eclipse cools the lower atmosphere.



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And  now for an editorial.  I have sometime complained about the media hyping and exaggerating stories, which has gotten me into loads of trouble with a few local outlets, such as the Seattle Times and the Stranger.    Well, I can't help but mentioned that the media, in concert with some local government folks, profoundly exaggerated the difficulties of traveling to the eclipse in Oregon. 

 I mean it got surreal.

Last week, there was story after story about travel Armageddon.  That travel would be impossible, total gridlock, gas and supplies unavailable, no places to stay, and crazy prices for rooms or parking.  They talked about wildfires started by folks parking on the sides of roads and overwhelmed cell phone networks  

 Some samples below:


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The reality was very different.

There was very little traffic in Oregon over the weekend (even in the early morning hours on the same day).    Lots of gas and no lines.   Stores and restaurants were stocked...and not very busy.

The crazy stories in the media caused panic among some Oregon residents, who lined up to get gas last Wednesday.  This was NOT the visitors.  Gas supplies were promptly restored the next day.

The media hype resulted in hotel/models/rentals jacking up prices and even canceling reservations of those who "paid too little" by making reservations a long time ago.  We are talking major greed here and our local governments did not protect us from it.  Some farmers were selling parking spaces for hundreds of dollars a day.


Turns out the high prices discouraged folks from making reservations and there was a lot of rooms available the night before!  I checked myself....big discounts available with room prices dropping from $1200 to $149 at some places in Bend and Redmond, Oregon.

There was traffic in Oregon immediately after totality, but the situation quieted down 6 hours later.  The State could have greatly lessened the traffic by using police to open up some intersections.  Like a big football game.

In short, the media did the people of the Northwest a major disservice in scaring folks away from one of the most amazing, moving events of the natural world.

 They did so with little real information, echoing increasingly silly warnings among themselves.  The media has declined in profound ways, and this eclipse scaremongering is a primo example


Local governments did not protect travelers from cancellations, and did little to deal with traffic problems when folks wanted to go home.  Will the media do a story about this?






from Cliff Mass Weather and Climate Blog http://ift.tt/2vWkn8s

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