New GOES Weather Satellite Imagery

The new GOES-16  weather satellite has been in orbit since November 16, 2016 and some of the imagery is available in real time.   It is marvelous.   The spatial resolution of the imagery is higher than the current operational weather satellites, but what  really is a game change is the frequency of observation,  with new images every 5 minutes versus every 15 minutes for the current operational systems.

Let me show you a few samples. Let's start with a visible image around 11 AM Sunday morning centered on the Pacific Northwest.   You can a north-south oriented frontal band off our coast and relatively clear skies over the Columbia Basin.  But over far eastern WA and northern Idaho there is a a nice example of lines of cloud streets, with regular spacing.

Here is a blow up of the cloud streets.  They occur when the atmosphere is relatively unstable at low levels with air rising in the clouds and sinking between them.  The wind direction is roughly parallel to the lines.

This feature, also known as convective rolls because of the nature of atmospheric circulation,  reflects an atmospheric instability that occurs when the lower atmosphere has a large change in both temperature and wind with height (see schematic below)

Courtesy of the UCAR COMET Program

How about a view of a Pacific cyclone? Here is a GOES-16 image of the Friday storm approaching Vancouver Island--you can clearly see the swirl of clouds with the low.

The day before, as the storm approached Oregon, the region was covered by trapped mountain wave clouds, again with lines of clouds and clear areas.  

But the mechanism of these clouds are completely different than the cloud streets, being associated with atmospheric waves forced by the mountains (see schematic below).  For mountain wave clouds, the winds near crest level are oriented perpendicular to the cloud lines.

Visible satellite imagery from weather satellites like GOES-16 show how the instability clouds over the ocean can rev up when then reach land and our terrain.  This is illustrated by the situation on Saturday (below).  The scattered weak showers over the Pacific deepen and expand over western Washington and Oregon, and then shrink as the descend the eastern slopes of the Cascades.

If you want to enjoy seeing GOES-16 images anywhere in the country (and for other wavelengths as well), check out the wonderful website created by the College of DuPage (found here).  Enjoy.

_______________________

How will Northwest Weather Change Under Global Warming?  Help Us Determine the Local Impacts of Climate Change

Society needs to know the regional impacts of climate change and several of us at the UW are trying to provide this information with state-of-the-art high resolution climate modeling.  With Federal funding unavailable, we are experimenting with a community funding to build this effort.  If you want more information or are interested in helping, please go here.  The full link is: http://ift.tt/2nltDeR    All contributions to the UW are tax deductible.

from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2nv88xc

New GOES Weather Satellite Imagery

The new GOES-16  weather satellite has been in orbit since November 16, 2016 and some of the imagery is available in real time.   It is marvelous.   The spatial resolution of the imagery is higher than the current operational weather satellites, but what  really is a game change is the frequency of observation,  with new images every 5 minutes versus every 15 minutes for the current operational systems.

Let me show you a few samples. Let's start with a visible image around 11 AM Sunday morning centered on the Pacific Northwest.   You can a north-south oriented frontal band off our coast and relatively clear skies over the Columbia Basin.  But over far eastern WA and northern Idaho there is a a nice example of lines of cloud streets, with regular spacing.

Here is a blow up of the cloud streets.  They occur when the atmosphere is relatively unstable at low levels with air rising in the clouds and sinking between them.  The wind direction is roughly parallel to the lines.

This feature, also known as convective rolls because of the nature of atmospheric circulation,  reflects an atmospheric instability that occurs when the lower atmosphere has a large change in both temperature and wind with height (see schematic below)

Courtesy of the UCAR COMET Program

How about a view of a Pacific cyclone? Here is a GOES-16 image of the Friday storm approaching Vancouver Island--you can clearly see the swirl of clouds with the low.

The day before, as the storm approached Oregon, the region was covered by trapped mountain wave clouds, again with lines of clouds and clear areas.  

But the mechanism of these clouds are completely different than the cloud streets, being associated with atmospheric waves forced by the mountains (see schematic below).  For mountain wave clouds, the winds near crest level are oriented perpendicular to the cloud lines.

Visible satellite imagery from weather satellites like GOES-16 show how the instability clouds over the ocean can rev up when then reach land and our terrain.  This is illustrated by the situation on Saturday (below).  The scattered weak showers over the Pacific deepen and expand over western Washington and Oregon, and then shrink as the descend the eastern slopes of the Cascades.

If you want to enjoy seeing GOES-16 images anywhere in the country (and for other wavelengths as well), check out the wonderful website created by the College of DuPage (found here).  Enjoy.

_______________________

How will Northwest Weather Change Under Global Warming?  Help Us Determine the Local Impacts of Climate Change

Society needs to know the regional impacts of climate change and several of us at the UW are trying to provide this information with state-of-the-art high resolution climate modeling.  With Federal funding unavailable, we are experimenting with a community funding to build this effort.  If you want more information or are interested in helping, please go here.  The full link is: http://ift.tt/2nltDeR    All contributions to the UW are tax deductible.

from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2nv88xc

The Worst is Over as the Storm Crosses Vancouver Island

The latest (8 PM) infrared satellite photo shows the storm now making landfall on Vancouver Island, as the wind begin to ease.  Amazing storm for April.

Here are the maximum winds today.  Some locations on the Oregon and Washington coast gusted to over 70 mph, with most coastal locations getting at least to 40 mph.  40-60 mph gusts in Portland, 35-50 mph gusts around Seattle (with a few getting to the mid-50s.  And 50-60 mph gusts around NW Washington.  At the mountain crests of the Olympics and Cascades, some winds of 90-100 mph were observed.

Destruction Island on the central WA coast got to around 72 knots (83 mph)

Seattle's West Point speed up to 42 knots (48 mph)

And Smith Island, just off of Whidbey Is. hit 58 knots (67 mph)

For Seattle's 520 bridge, winds have climbed to 40-45 mph.

Several hundred thousand people lost power, particularly over Oregon and SW Washington.    An unusual late season event, which will be followed by improving weather over the weekend.

________________________

Will Such Storms Increase Under Global Warming? Help Us Determine the Local Impacts of Climate Change

Society needs to know the regional impacts of climate change and several of us at the UW are trying to provide this information with state-of-the-art high resolution climate modeling.  With Federal funding unavailable, we are experimenting with a community funding to build this effort.  If you want more information or are interested in helping, please go here.  The full link is: http://ift.tt/2nltDeR    All contributions to the UW are tax deductible.

from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2nNnUhX

The Worst is Over as the Storm Crosses Vancouver Island

The latest (8 PM) infrared satellite photo shows the storm now making landfall on Vancouver Island, as the wind begin to ease.  Amazing storm for April.

Here are the maximum winds today.  Some locations on the Oregon and Washington coast gusted to over 70 mph, with most coastal locations getting at least to 40 mph.  40-60 mph gusts in Portland, 35-50 mph gusts around Seattle (with a few getting to the mid-50s.  And 50-60 mph gusts around NW Washington.  At the mountain crests of the Olympics and Cascades, some winds of 90-100 mph were observed.

Destruction Island on the central WA coast got to around 72 knots (83 mph)

Seattle's West Point speed up to 42 knots (48 mph)

And Smith Island, just off of Whidbey Is. hit 58 knots (67 mph)

For Seattle's 520 bridge, winds have climbed to 40-45 mph.

Several hundred thousand people lost power, particularly over Oregon and SW Washington.    An unusual late season event, which will be followed by improving weather over the weekend.

________________________

Will Such Storms Increase Under Global Warming? Help Us Determine the Local Impacts of Climate Change

Society needs to know the regional impacts of climate change and several of us at the UW are trying to provide this information with state-of-the-art high resolution climate modeling.  With Federal funding unavailable, we are experimenting with a community funding to build this effort.  If you want more information or are interested in helping, please go here.  The full link is: http://ift.tt/2nltDeR    All contributions to the UW are tax deductible.

from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2nNnUhX

Major Wind Event About to Hit Western WA

All hell is about to break loose around western Washington as a very strong April storm moves into our coastal waters.

The 10 AM infrared satellite image shows the swirl of the huge storm, with its center just offshore of the WA/OR border.

I was more than excited to view the Langley Hill radar image from 10:37 AM, which picked up the circulation around the low center. (I put a red star at the center)  Langley Hill is the ONLY weather service radar than can do a scan at an angle less than .5 degrees, which gives it much more ability to view offshore.  You can thank Senator Maria Cantwell for this...she pushed the NWS to allow this low scan.

As predicted the cyclone brought strong winds along the Oregon coast (see below), with gusts to 60-70 mph.  A few exposed peaks even higher.

Now it is our turn.  Winds are rapidly increasing over western Washington and the max gusts so far (as of 10 AM) have reached 40- 50 mph on the southern WA coast and 72 mph at Destruction Island.  Gusts to 30-40 mph have reached the south Sound and NW Washington.  But you haven't seen anything yet!

The latest UW WRF model (the same one to be used in our proposed regional climate simulations) indicates a 10 AM position of a deep (975 hPa) low due west of the Long Beach Peninsula

 With movement northward during afternoon (5 PM shown below).

The WA coast is going to be hit very hard, with 60-70 mph gusts.

The latest NWS HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) surface wind forecasts over western WA are scary.  Here are the gust forecasts at 2 PM, 5 PM and 8 PM.
40-50 mph gusts everywhere and a number of areas (e.g. the coast, NW WA) experiencing 50-60 mph.  If this is true, expect substantial tree damage and power outage.

So please keep away from trees this afternoon and tonight (such in parks or the Burke-Gilman trail in Seattle).

As of 11 AM, tens of thousands of customers have lost power over Oregon and southwest Washington.   This is going to be a major event.

________________________

Will Such Storms Increase Under Global Warming? Help Us Determine the Local Impacts of Climate Change

Society needs to know the regional impacts of climate change and several of us at the UW are trying to provide this information with state-of-the-art high resolution climate modeling.  With Federal funding unavailable, we are experimenting with a community funding to build this effort.  If you want more information or are interested in helping, please go here.  The full link is: http://ift.tt/2nltDeR    All contributions to the UW are tax deductible.

from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2o6h4WJ

Major Wind Event About to Hit Western WA

All hell is about to break loose around western Washington as a very strong April storm moves into our coastal waters.

The 10 AM infrared satellite image shows the swirl of the huge storm, with its center just offshore of the WA/OR border.

I was more than excited to view the Langley Hill radar image from 10:37 AM, which picked up the circulation around the low center. (I put a red star at the center)  Langley Hill is the ONLY weather service radar than can do a scan at an angle less than .5 degrees, which gives it much more ability to view offshore.  You can thank Senator Maria Cantwell for this...she pushed the NWS to allow this low scan.

As predicted the cyclone brought strong winds along the Oregon coast (see below), with gusts to 60-70 mph.  A few exposed peaks even higher.

Now it is our turn.  Winds are rapidly increasing over western Washington and the max gusts so far (as of 10 AM) have reached 40- 50 mph on the southern WA coast and 72 mph at Destruction Island.  Gusts to 30-40 mph have reached the south Sound and NW Washington.  But you haven't seen anything yet!

The latest UW WRF model (the same one to be used in our proposed regional climate simulations) indicates a 10 AM position of a deep (975 hPa) low due west of the Long Beach Peninsula

 With movement northward during afternoon (5 PM shown below).

The WA coast is going to be hit very hard, with 60-70 mph gusts.

The latest NWS HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) surface wind forecasts over western WA are scary.  Here are the gust forecasts at 2 PM, 5 PM and 8 PM.
40-50 mph gusts everywhere and a number of areas (e.g. the coast, NW WA) experiencing 50-60 mph.  If this is true, expect substantial tree damage and power outage.

So please keep away from trees this afternoon and tonight (such in parks or the Burke-Gilman trail in Seattle).

As of 11 AM, tens of thousands of customers have lost power over Oregon and southwest Washington.   This is going to be a major event.

________________________

Will Such Storms Increase Under Global Warming? Help Us Determine the Local Impacts of Climate Change

Society needs to know the regional impacts of climate change and several of us at the UW are trying to provide this information with state-of-the-art high resolution climate modeling.  With Federal funding unavailable, we are experimenting with a community funding to build this effort.  If you want more information or are interested in helping, please go here.  The full link is: http://ift.tt/2nltDeR    All contributions to the UW are tax deductible.

from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2o6h4WJ

Extraordinary Storm Approaches

It is probably the most powerful April storm to approach the Northwest coast during the past half century.  A very large, well-formed oceanic cyclone that will cross Vancouver Island Friday evening.  And one that will surely bring power outages to the coast and parts of the interior.

Let's start by looking at the 9 PM infrared satellite image (below).  Beautiful storm with the low center in the middle of the swirl nearly due west of the Oregon/CA border.

Another way to view the storm is using the water vapor channel that uses wavelengths in which water vapor emits radiation effectively. The dark area indicates dry air aloft descending towards the low center--the mark of a rapidly intensifying storm.  The massive cloud shield is also classic for a powerful, rapidly intensifying cyclone.

We have a few buoys offshore to see what is happening.  Buoy 46002, off the Oregon coast (see map) is experiencing huge pressure falls (see plot).  A 25 hPa drop in 6 hr!   Wow.

The latest model forecasts are in and the forecasts are impressive. And I should note that virtually all modeling systems are providing a similar solution.  Thus confidence is high.

At 2 AM Friday, a 976 hPa low center is off the southern Oregon, with an intense pressure gradient to its south and west.  Classic for marine cyclones.

 By 11 AM the low is off the Washington coast, with an extraordinarily intense pressure gradient (and thus strong winds) over the Oregon coast.

 At 8 PM Friday, the low center is making landfall on central Vancouver Island, with the intense pressure differences (and thus winds) over the Washington coast.

The wind speed forecasts will impress.  Here are the gust predictions.
At 5 AM, the central and southern Oregon coasts are getting hammered with gusts to 60-70 mph.

By 2 PM, the strong winds have reached the southern WA coast.

 And the northern coast at 8 PM.

 Winds will pick up during the late morning over the western WA interior.  Here is the forecast gusts for 2 PM.  Seattle is rocking with local gusts to 40-50 mph in exposed locations.   The coast is another world (and much windier).

 The National Weather Service has a high wind watch out for the western WA interior for tomorrow.

There will be substantial power outages along the coast with downed trees and associated damage. Some power outages should be expected in the interior.

________________________

You Can Help Determine the Local Impacts of Global Warming

Society needs to know the regional impacts of climate change and several of us at the UW are trying to provide this information with state-of-the-art high resolution climate modeling.  With Federal funding collapsing, we are experimenting with a community funding.  If you want more information or are interested in helping, please go here.  The full link is: http://ift.tt/2nltDeR    All contributions to the UW are tax deductible.

from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2oL27Ms