Extraordinary Storm Approaches

It is probably the most powerful April storm to approach the Northwest coast during the past half century.  A very large, well-formed oceanic cyclone that will cross Vancouver Island Friday evening.  And one that will surely bring power outages to the coast and parts of the interior.

Let's start by looking at the 9 PM infrared satellite image (below).  Beautiful storm with the low center in the middle of the swirl nearly due west of the Oregon/CA border.

Another way to view the storm is using the water vapor channel that uses wavelengths in which water vapor emits radiation effectively. The dark area indicates dry air aloft descending towards the low center--the mark of a rapidly intensifying storm.  The massive cloud shield is also classic for a powerful, rapidly intensifying cyclone.

We have a few buoys offshore to see what is happening.  Buoy 46002, off the Oregon coast (see map) is experiencing huge pressure falls (see plot).  A 25 hPa drop in 6 hr!   Wow.

The latest model forecasts are in and the forecasts are impressive. And I should note that virtually all modeling systems are providing a similar solution.  Thus confidence is high.

At 2 AM Friday, a 976 hPa low center is off the southern Oregon, with an intense pressure gradient to its south and west.  Classic for marine cyclones.

 By 11 AM the low is off the Washington coast, with an extraordinarily intense pressure gradient (and thus strong winds) over the Oregon coast.

 At 8 PM Friday, the low center is making landfall on central Vancouver Island, with the intense pressure differences (and thus winds) over the Washington coast.

The wind speed forecasts will impress.  Here are the gust predictions.
At 5 AM, the central and southern Oregon coasts are getting hammered with gusts to 60-70 mph.

By 2 PM, the strong winds have reached the southern WA coast.

 And the northern coast at 8 PM.

 Winds will pick up during the late morning over the western WA interior.  Here is the forecast gusts for 2 PM.  Seattle is rocking with local gusts to 40-50 mph in exposed locations.   The coast is another world (and much windier).

 The National Weather Service has a high wind watch out for the western WA interior for tomorrow.

There will be substantial power outages along the coast with downed trees and associated damage. Some power outages should be expected in the interior.

________________________

You Can Help Determine the Local Impacts of Global Warming

Society needs to know the regional impacts of climate change and several of us at the UW are trying to provide this information with state-of-the-art high resolution climate modeling.  With Federal funding collapsing, we are experimenting with a community funding.  If you want more information or are interested in helping, please go here.  The full link is: http://ift.tt/2nltDeR    All contributions to the UW are tax deductible.

from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2oL27Ms

Extraordinary Storm Approaches

It is probably the most powerful April storm to approach the Northwest coast during the past half century.  A very large, well-formed oceanic cyclone that will cross Vancouver Island Friday evening.  And one that will surely bring power outages to the coast and parts of the interior.

Let's start by looking at the 9 PM infrared satellite image (below).  Beautiful storm with the low center in the middle of the swirl nearly due west of the Oregon/CA border.

Another way to view the storm is using the water vapor channel that uses wavelengths in which water vapor emits radiation effectively. The dark area indicates dry air aloft descending towards the low center--the mark of a rapidly intensifying storm.  The massive cloud shield is also classic for a powerful, rapidly intensifying cyclone.

We have a few buoys offshore to see what is happening.  Buoy 46002, off the Oregon coast (see map) is experiencing huge pressure falls (see plot).  A 25 hPa drop in 6 hr!   Wow.

The latest model forecasts are in and the forecasts are impressive. And I should note that virtually all modeling systems are providing a similar solution.  Thus confidence is high.

At 2 AM Friday, a 976 hPa low center is off the southern Oregon, with an intense pressure gradient to its south and west.  Classic for marine cyclones.

 By 11 AM the low is off the Washington coast, with an extraordinarily intense pressure gradient (and thus strong winds) over the Oregon coast.

 At 8 PM Friday, the low center is making landfall on central Vancouver Island, with the intense pressure differences (and thus winds) over the Washington coast.

The wind speed forecasts will impress.  Here are the gust predictions.
At 5 AM, the central and southern Oregon coasts are getting hammered with gusts to 60-70 mph.

By 2 PM, the strong winds have reached the southern WA coast.

 And the northern coast at 8 PM.

 Winds will pick up during the late morning over the western WA interior.  Here is the forecast gusts for 2 PM.  Seattle is rocking with local gusts to 40-50 mph in exposed locations.   The coast is another world (and much windier).

 The National Weather Service has a high wind watch out for the western WA interior for tomorrow.

There will be substantial power outages along the coast with downed trees and associated damage. Some power outages should be expected in the interior.

________________________

You Can Help Determine the Local Impacts of Global Warming

Society needs to know the regional impacts of climate change and several of us at the UW are trying to provide this information with state-of-the-art high resolution climate modeling.  With Federal funding collapsing, we are experimenting with a community funding.  If you want more information or are interested in helping, please go here.  The full link is: http://ift.tt/2nltDeR    All contributions to the UW are tax deductible.

from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2oL27Ms

Major Windstorm Heading for Pacific Northwest Coastal Water

Confidence is now very high that an unusually strong coastal storm will move northward over the Pacific Northwest coastal waters on Friday morning before it makes landfall on northern Vancouver Island.

The Oregon coast will get hit particularly hard, with gusts reaching 50-70 mph. The latest European Center model forecast for 11 AM (below), shows a large low center due east of Astoria with a central pressure of 973 hPa (or mb).  This is extraordinary low pressure for April and a rare event.  Sustained winds (colors) reaching 40-45 knots are indicated along the coast, and associated gusts could hit 50-70 knots.  This means power outages along the coast.

How unusual is this event?   Well, meteorologists have statistical tools to help us with this question.  One way is to use standardized anomalies, in which we look at the collections of all pressures for a long period (at least several decades) at a point and determine the pressure anomaly (how different the forecast pressure is from normal).  Then we divide the anomaly by the standard deviation of pressure at that point.  The standard deviation is a measure of the variability of the pressure over the period of record. This process is repeated at many points to create a map of such standardized anomalies.

The larger the standardized anomaly, the more unusual the anomaly from normal.

Here is the standardized anomaly for the pressure forecast for 5 AM Friday.  For the storm center, the standardized anomaly peaks at about 5....this is very large, signifying that such low pressure at the point would be expected only once in 3.5 million hours (assuming hourly data was used and the distribution was near normal).

Now that I have convinced you that this is an unusual event, let's look at some forecasts.  The sustained (several minute average) wind for 8 AM Friday, show winds reaching 50 kt on the central Oregon coasts (again gusts are higher).

This storm will not only produce strong winds, but substantial wave action.  Here are the wave height forecasts from the NOAA/NWS WaveWatch III model... the yellow indicates 8-9 meter (26-30 ft) waves.  The storm/wave watching on the coast will be impressive (but stay safe if you are there)

As the storm moves up the coast, the winds will spread to the Washington coast.  At 2 PM (below), sustained winds will reach 40 kts on the southern WA coast, and Seattle will be blustery with sustained 25-30 knot winds.  Gusts could higher(40-50 mph, particularly near the water).

Fortunately, with a cold winter, the leafing out of the trees has been delayed, which will lessen the damage.  And end of winter storms generally do less damage (because a lot of wind pruning has already occurred).

Finally, how confident am I in this forecast?  Let's turn to an ensemble (many forecasts) system...the NWS SREF.  The SREF ensemble prediction for wind at Astoria, OR suggests that most of the ensemble members have a similar solution of fairly strong wind.

Other ensemble systems suggest the same thing, with nearly all forecasts having a major storm off our coast.  Much more confidence than the ill-fated and much smaller October 15, 2016 storm.

I suspect there still will be some limited power outages around Puget Sound, particularly since the ground is so saturated.

________________________

Help Determine Local Impacts of Climate Change

Society needs to know the regional impacts of climate change and a group at the UW is trying to provide this information with state-of-the-art high resolution climate modeling.  With Federal funding collapsing, we are experimenting with a community funding approach.  If you want more information or are interested in helping, please go here.  The full link is: http://ift.tt/2nltDeR
_______________

from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2oGRYR7

Major Windstorm Heading for Pacific Northwest Coastal Water

Confidence is now very high that an unusually strong coastal storm will move northward over the Pacific Northwest coastal waters on Friday morning before it makes landfall on northern Vancouver Island.

The Oregon coast will get hit particularly hard, with gusts reaching 50-70 mph. The latest European Center model forecast for 11 AM (below), shows a large low center due east of Astoria with a central pressure of 973 hPa (or mb).  This is extraordinary low pressure for April and a rare event.  Sustained winds (colors) reaching 40-45 knots are indicated along the coast, and associated gusts could hit 50-70 knots.  This means power outages along the coast.

How unusual is this event?   Well, meteorologists have statistical tools to help us with this question.  One way is to use standardized anomalies, in which we look at the collections of all pressures for a long period (at least several decades) at a point and determine the pressure anomaly (how different the forecast pressure is from normal).  Then we divide the anomaly by the standard deviation of pressure at that point.  The standard deviation is a measure of the variability of the pressure over the period of record. This process is repeated at many points to create a map of such standardized anomalies.

The larger the standardized anomaly, the more unusual the anomaly from normal.

Here is the standardized anomaly for the pressure forecast for 5 AM Friday.  For the storm center, the standardized anomaly peaks at about 5....this is very large, signifying that such low pressure at the point would be expected only once in 3.5 million hours (assuming hourly data was used and the distribution was near normal).

Now that I have convinced you that this is an unusual event, let's look at some forecasts.  The sustained (several minute average) wind for 8 AM Friday, show winds reaching 50 kt on the central Oregon coasts (again gusts are higher).

This storm will not only produce strong winds, but substantial wave action.  Here are the wave height forecasts from the NOAA/NWS WaveWatch III model... the yellow indicates 8-9 meter (26-30 ft) waves.  The storm/wave watching on the coast will be impressive (but stay safe if you are there)

As the storm moves up the coast, the winds will spread to the Washington coast.  At 2 PM (below), sustained winds will reach 40 kts on the southern WA coast, and Seattle will be blustery with sustained 25-30 knot winds.  Gusts could higher(40-50 mph, particularly near the water).

Fortunately, with a cold winter, the leafing out of the trees has been delayed, which will lessen the damage.  And end of winter storms generally do less damage (because a lot of wind pruning has already occurred).

Finally, how confident am I in this forecast?  Let's turn to an ensemble (many forecasts) system...the NWS SREF.  The SREF ensemble prediction for wind at Astoria, OR suggests that most of the ensemble members have a similar solution of fairly strong wind.

Other ensemble systems suggest the same thing, with nearly all forecasts having a major storm off our coast.  Much more confidence than the ill-fated and much smaller October 15, 2016 storm.

I suspect there still will be some limited power outages around Puget Sound, particularly since the ground is so saturated.

________________________

Help Determine Local Impacts of Climate Change

Society needs to know the regional impacts of climate change and a group at the UW is trying to provide this information with state-of-the-art high resolution climate modeling.  With Federal funding collapsing, we are experimenting with a community funding approach.  If you want more information or are interested in helping, please go here.  The full link is: http://ift.tt/2nltDeR
_______________

from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2oGRYR7

5 Important Things to Consider Before Buying a Home

When you are looking to move somewhere new, you are going to try and figure out everything that needs to happen with your new property. How can you make sure that you’re going to get the most for your efforts? How can you find a way to deal with everything that makes sense and that is going to be able to meet your needs? And can you actually find the dream home that has been on your mind for all of these years? Whether you want a thirty million dollar mansion on North Bay Road, or you want to find a property that is more affordable, here are 5 tips that can help you out.

1. You want to know what you want. When you start to look at houses for sale, make sure that you have a list of traits that can help you out. You want to make sure that you find something that makes sense for you. You want to look at the number of bedrooms and bathrooms and look at the layout as well. All of these factors will work together to help you get what you need out of a home.

2. Always have a budget in place. Don’t just dive in without any sort of budget. Instead, take some time and piece something together that is going to make sense for you and whatever you may need to try and do with that money. Not only is it going to be helpful, but you can find a lot of solutions that are actually going to help you out and save you money when you start to budget everything.

3. Understand how much you’ll need to maintain the home. How much are the utilities going to be? What are the local taxes like? Do you know if it’s going to affect your income taxes? How much are you able to put into those sorts of things? What if something breaks or needs to be updated? Make sure that, when you’re putting the budget together, you keep that sort of stuff in mind as well.

4. Don’t underestimate location concerns. Where is your future home located? Is the area safe? What is the school district like? Are you able to enjoy the things that can come with living in such a unique area? Make sure that you consider all of those things before you even get started and you will be in a much better position to go ahead and look into something that makes sense for whatever you may need.

5. Be patient. Many people jump on the first home that they can afford, but don’t do that. Instead, be willing to put in a counteroffer and start working toward what you need to be able to do or achieve. Be patient and give yourself time to find what you need and you’ll be a lot better off when it comes time to actually purchase a home. You’ll be happier with it as well.

from Home Design Ideas | Interior Design Ideas And Architcture http://ift.tt/2p1ufY7

5 Important Things to Consider Before Buying a Home

When you are looking to move somewhere new, you are going to try and figure out everything that needs to happen with your new property. How can you make sure that you’re going to get the most for your efforts? How can you find a way to deal with everything that makes sense and that is going to be able to meet your needs? And can you actually find the dream home that has been on your mind for all of these years? Whether you want a thirty million dollar mansion on North Bay Road, or you want to find a property that is more affordable, here are 5 tips that can help you out.

1. You want to know what you want. When you start to look at houses for sale, make sure that you have a list of traits that can help you out. You want to make sure that you find something that makes sense for you. You want to look at the number of bedrooms and bathrooms and look at the layout as well. All of these factors will work together to help you get what you need out of a home.

2. Always have a budget in place. Don’t just dive in without any sort of budget. Instead, take some time and piece something together that is going to make sense for you and whatever you may need to try and do with that money. Not only is it going to be helpful, but you can find a lot of solutions that are actually going to help you out and save you money when you start to budget everything.

3. Understand how much you’ll need to maintain the home. How much are the utilities going to be? What are the local taxes like? Do you know if it’s going to affect your income taxes? How much are you able to put into those sorts of things? What if something breaks or needs to be updated? Make sure that, when you’re putting the budget together, you keep that sort of stuff in mind as well.

4. Don’t underestimate location concerns. Where is your future home located? Is the area safe? What is the school district like? Are you able to enjoy the things that can come with living in such a unique area? Make sure that you consider all of those things before you even get started and you will be in a much better position to go ahead and look into something that makes sense for whatever you may need.

5. Be patient. Many people jump on the first home that they can afford, but don’t do that. Instead, be willing to put in a counteroffer and start working toward what you need to be able to do or achieve. Be patient and give yourself time to find what you need and you’ll be a lot better off when it comes time to actually purchase a home. You’ll be happier with it as well.

from Home Design Ideas | Interior Design Ideas And Architcture http://ift.tt/2p1ufY7

We Finally Reach 60F and a Rare Twin Storm Event on the West Coast

To the substantial relief of cold-oppressed Puget Sound residents, temperatures finally rose above 60F, for the first time this year.  Here are the high temperatures today--60s all the way to Bellingham!

Seattle-Tacoma Airport got to 61F.   Going back to the late 1940s, we tied for fourth place for the latest Sea-Tac reached 60F or more.   This season, the last time Sea-Tac got to 60F was November 11, 2016.  It is good we hit the record today, because a very wet, stormy period is ahead.  A unusually wet period for April.

To illustrate, here is the 72-hr total precipitation ending 5 PM Friday.  An unbelievable 5-10 inches  (red color) for the upper elevations of the Olympics and north Cascades.  Much greater area between 2 and 5 inches.  Such amounts are unusual for April.

But what really got me amazed was the sea level pressure forecast model prediction for 5 PM Friday, with two lows making landfall simultaneously on the West Coast.  A doubled barreled low situation.

Here is the forecast from the European Center model at that time.  The northern system is quite strong (979 hPa central pressure).

The UW WRF model prediction for three hours later is even more surprising, with the southern low being stronger.    I have been watching the weather around here for over a quarter century and don't remember ever seeing anything like this.

The kind of thing that appears in a movie, before the aliens show up.  Something that some breathless meteorologists would call "the Perfect Storm."

This is turning out to be a cool, wet spring and there will be absolutely no water worries this summer in the Northwest.  Good for planting lettuce... put mine in last weekend.
________________________
Help Determine Local Impacts of Climate Change
Society needs to know the regional impacts of climate change and a group at the UW is trying to provide this information with state-of-the-art high resolution climate modeling.  With Federal funding collapsing, we are experimenting with a community funding approach.  If you want more information or are interested in helping, please go here.  The full link is: http://ift.tt/2nltDeR
_______________

from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2nVOyqC