Moving Forward with a Carbon Tax in Washington State: Only A Revenue-Neutral Approach is Viable (Part I)

There has been a lot of talk about reducing the carbon emissions in Washington State and Seattle.

Lots of talk. 

But with all the good intentions and chatter, progress has been very slow.   For example, the carbon emissions in Washington State was higher in 2013 than in 1990.  There are similar statistics for King County and Seattle.  Total emissions is not down at all... they are up.

The essential fact is that the amount of carbon per person in the Northwest has declined slightly, but increasing population has more than neutralized the added efficiencies from better gas mileage cars and the like.  And the situation is much worse worldwide, as global population increases and countries such as China and India use vast amounts of coal and fossil fuels to improve the living standards of their populations.  And, of course, there is the fracking revolution, resulting in increasing oil and gas production in the U.S.    As a result, the amount of carbon in the atmosphere is rising rapidly...in fact accelerating upwards (see below).

The earth is starting to warm as a result of increasing greenhouse gases and in order to make any real progress in reducing the warming, we would have to CUT the emissions by 80% or more during the next decade.  Let's face it...this is not going to happen on our current course.

Catastrophic warnings and exaggeration of current climate variations by environmentalists (and local media outlets like, the  Seattle Stranger and occasionally the Seattle Times) are doing little.  Laying guilt trips on folks is clearly ineffective.   It is obvious that few folks will really sacrifice voluntarily to reduce global warming, and the most rabid environmental types still take their airplane trips.

The solution to this issue is elsewhere and inevitably technological.  One approach is to plan for the warming and create a resilient society.   Clearly a good move.  The other is to develop effective technologies to use less energy and to develop clean energy sources.  We must do this as well.

But there is a problem.  Fossil fuels are really quite cheap--mainly because of the huge increase in fracking during the last ten years.   Gas prices are up slightly over the last two years but still quite modest (see graph....about $2.60 a gallon on average)

And at the same time, natural gas is getting less expensive (see below).

With cheap fuel costs, folks are increasingly buying bigger cars (SUV are all the rage), air travel remains affordable and increasing rapidly, and folks are still doing a lot of driving.   The use of renewables is growing, but still represent only a few percent of the energy mix. (I always find it amusing that local environmentally oriented politicians never talk about the huge regional industry producing intensive fossil-fuel burning devices---Boeing).

As long as energy is cheap and the costs of burning fossil fuels (air pollution, global warming) are not made part of the price, progress towards reducing its usage will be undermined.

Carbon taxes and caps

During the past few years there has been intense interest in using economic tools to restrain the growth of carbon emissions in Washington State and elsewhere, tools such as carbon taxes and caps on emissions, to name a few.

In 2016, an initiative to initiate a revenue neutral carbon tax (I-732) was defeated.  In 2017, Governor Inslee's cap on carbon emissions was found to be illegal, and last month, a carbon tax bill in the WA State Legislature (I-4849) was defeated.

In this and my next blog, I will review these prior attempts to carbon reduction and discuss what I believe is the only viable route:  a revenue-neutral carbon tax that put the funds back into the pockets of WA State residents.

Suggested Rules

Any economic approach to reducing carbon emissions here in Washington Sate should have four key attributes:

1.   It is effective in significantly reducing carbon emissions.  The penalty for using carbon should be large enough to provide a sufficient price signal to push folks to reduce their emissions and to encourage alternative technologies.
2.   It is not regressive, with poorer people not paying more than their reasonable share.
3.   It is simple, objective, and not in control of one political party or group.
4.  It can serve as a model for the rest of the nation.    A carbon tax that helps the situation ONLY in Washington State will not have much impact.   We need a measure that could be used in other states and will encourage the development of technologies that can be used around the world.  It must be a bipartisan, since our nation is split between two parties.

There are two main types of carbon taxes:  (1) revenue-neutral taxes that return all the carbon taxes to citizens and (2) carbon taxes that use funds for a variety of purposes, such as making investments in alternative energy technologies or for more general "social justice" goals.

Another approach is to dictate carbon reductions through "caps" on carbon emission.  Some caps simply limit carbon emissions with no money changing hands (like Governor Inslee's executive action that was found unconstitutional) or ones where organizations can trade and sell rights to emit carbon, with money changing hands (cap and trade).   But the cap approach has run into problems in both Europe and California, and has inherent weaknesses that allow such an approached to be "gamed."

In my next blog, I will examine past and current attempts at a carbon tax in Washington State and make the case for a revenue-neutral approach.




from Cliff Mass Weather and Climate Blog https://ift.tt/2GnN0lT

Moving Forward with a Carbon Tax in Washington State: Only A Revenue-Neutral Approach is Viable (Part I)

There has been a lot of talk about reducing the carbon emissions in Washington State and Seattle.

Lots of talk. 

But with all the good intentions and chatter, progress has been very slow.   For example, the carbon emissions in Washington State was higher in 2013 than in 1990.  There are similar statistics for King County and Seattle.  Total emissions is not down at all... they are up.

The essential fact is that the amount of carbon per person in the Northwest has declined slightly, but increasing population has more than neutralized the added efficiencies from better gas mileage cars and the like.  And the situation is much worse worldwide, as global population increases and countries such as China and India use vast amounts of coal and fossil fuels to improve the living standards of their populations.  And, of course, there is the fracking revolution, resulting in increasing oil and gas production in the U.S.    As a result, the amount of carbon in the atmosphere is rising rapidly...in fact accelerating upwards (see below).

The earth is starting to warm as a result of increasing greenhouse gases and in order to make any real progress in reducing the warming, we would have to CUT the emissions by 80% or more during the next decade.  Let's face it...this is not going to happen on our current course.

Catastrophic warnings and exaggeration of current climate variations by environmentalists (and local media outlets like, the  Seattle Stranger and occasionally the Seattle Times) are doing little.  Laying guilt trips on folks is clearly ineffective.   It is obvious that few folks will really sacrifice voluntarily to reduce global warming, and the most rabid environmental types still take their airplane trips.

The solution to this issue is elsewhere and inevitably technological.  One approach is to plan for the warming and create a resilient society.   Clearly a good move.  The other is to develop effective technologies to use less energy and to develop clean energy sources.  We must do this as well.

But there is a problem.  Fossil fuels are really quite cheap--mainly because of the huge increase in fracking during the last ten years.   Gas prices are up slightly over the last two years but still quite modest (see graph....about $2.60 a gallon on average)

And at the same time, natural gas is getting less expensive (see below).

With cheap fuel costs, folks are increasingly buying bigger cars (SUV are all the rage), air travel remains affordable and increasing rapidly, and folks are still doing a lot of driving.   The use of renewables is growing, but still represent only a few percent of the energy mix. (I always find it amusing that local environmentally oriented politicians never talk about the huge regional industry producing intensive fossil-fuel burning devices---Boeing).

As long as energy is cheap and the costs of burning fossil fuels (air pollution, global warming) are not made part of the price, progress towards reducing its usage will be undermined.

Carbon taxes and caps

During the past few years there has been intense interest in using economic tools to restrain the growth of carbon emissions in Washington State and elsewhere, tools such as carbon taxes and caps on emissions, to name a few.

In 2016, an initiative to initiate a revenue neutral carbon tax (I-732) was defeated.  In 2017, Governor Inslee's cap on carbon emissions was found to be illegal, and last month, a carbon tax bill in the WA State Legislature (I-4849) was defeated.

In this and my next blog, I will review these prior attempts to carbon reduction and discuss what I believe is the only viable route:  a revenue-neutral carbon tax that put the funds back into the pockets of WA State residents.

Suggested Rules

Any economic approach to reducing carbon emissions here in Washington Sate should have four key attributes:

1.   It is effective in significantly reducing carbon emissions.  The penalty for using carbon should be large enough to provide a sufficient price signal to push folks to reduce their emissions and to encourage alternative technologies.
2.   It is not regressive, with poorer people not paying more than their reasonable share.
3.   It is simple, objective, and not in control of one political party or group.
4.  It can serve as a model for the rest of the nation.    A carbon tax that helps the situation ONLY in Washington State will not have much impact.   We need a measure that could be used in other states and will encourage the development of technologies that can be used around the world.  It must be a bipartisan, since our nation is split between two parties.

There are two main types of carbon taxes:  (1) revenue-neutral taxes that return all the carbon taxes to citizens and (2) carbon taxes that use funds for a variety of purposes, such as making investments in alternative energy technologies or for more general "social justice" goals.

Another approach is to dictate carbon reductions through "caps" on carbon emission.  Some caps simply limit carbon emissions with no money changing hands (like Governor Inslee's executive action that was found unconstitutional) or ones where organizations can trade and sell rights to emit carbon, with money changing hands (cap and trade).   But the cap approach has run into problems in both Europe and California, and has inherent weaknesses that allow such an approached to be "gamed."

In my next blog, I will examine past and current attempts at a carbon tax in Washington State and make the case for a revenue-neutral approach.




from Cliff Mass Weather and Climate Blog https://ift.tt/2GnN0lT

Cold, Unstable Air Brings Snow Down to Higher Hills Around the Puget Sound Region

Unusually cold air has moved over the northeast Pacific and the Pacific Northwest, creating unstable conditions and snow descending to the higher hills.

During the past hour (10 AM), snow was reported at Paine Field in Everett (604 ft) and at Sea-Tac Airport (452 ft).  At Peter Benda's house in Bellevue (1300 ft), snow was accumulating in a winter-like scene.

Using the capabilities of the City of Seattle's SNOWWATCH app, we can see that the freezing level this morning has dropped to about 1300 ft (see plot of temperatures above SEA-TAC airport below), which means the snow level would be roughly 300 ft (below that level there would be only rain).

Cold air has moved in aloft, associated with an upper-level low pressure center that is centered west of Vancouver Island (see 500 hPa--around 18,000 ft-- weather map below for 5 AM Friday morning).

Here is a temperature map at roughly 10,000 ft (700 hPa)--you can see the cold air aloft (purple colors) associated with the low.

With cold air aloft and warming temperatures at the surface (it IS late March), there is a very large change of temperature with height and that promotes instability:  having the lower atmosphere break up into upward moving thermals and sinking air around them.   Just like in your hot cereal pot when you turn on the burner.    Upward motion results in cumulus, cumulus congestus, and cumulonimbus clouds, resulting in intermittent heavy showers.  Maybe some soft hail or graupel if you are lucky.

You can see the instability in the visible satellite image this morning.  The small elements are the anvils from convective clouds.

Perhaps a more impressive view is from the infrared satellite image (the shading shows the temperature of the cloud tops, with white being the highest).  Cold, deep convection over and off our coast.

The problem for lowland snow lovers is that low-level air is coming off the warm ocean (which is about 50F), making it too warm for snow, and particularly accumulating snow, to reach sea level.

The threat of light lowland snow over the hills is not over yet.  Tomorrow morning, the upper level low and its surface reflection will approach and move south of us (see surface weather map at 8AM Saturday), with cool air over western Washington.  Very weak onshore flow.  There will be enough upward motion to promote some showers of snow and rain.

The latest UW WRF model run shows some light snow getting close to sea level for the 24h ending 5 PM Saturday.  Enjoy the snowflakes...this could be your last view of them until next winter.

from Cliff Mass Weather and Climate Blog https://ift.tt/2HW8UsP

Cold, Unstable Air Brings Snow Down to Higher Hills Around the Puget Sound Region

Unusually cold air has moved over the northeast Pacific and the Pacific Northwest, creating unstable conditions and snow descending to the higher hills.

During the past hour (10 AM), snow was reported at Paine Field in Everett (604 ft) and at Sea-Tac Airport (452 ft).  At Peter Benda's house in Bellevue (1300 ft), snow was accumulating in a winter-like scene.

Using the capabilities of the City of Seattle's SNOWWATCH app, we can see that the freezing level this morning has dropped to about 1300 ft (see plot of temperatures above SEA-TAC airport below), which means the snow level would be roughly 300 ft (below that level there would be only rain).

Cold air has moved in aloft, associated with an upper-level low pressure center that is centered west of Vancouver Island (see 500 hPa--around 18,000 ft-- weather map below for 5 AM Friday morning).

Here is a temperature map at roughly 10,000 ft (700 hPa)--you can see the cold air aloft (purple colors) associated with the low.

With cold air aloft and warming temperatures at the surface (it IS late March), there is a very large change of temperature with height and that promotes instability:  having the lower atmosphere break up into upward moving thermals and sinking air around them.   Just like in your hot cereal pot when you turn on the burner.    Upward motion results in cumulus, cumulus congestus, and cumulonimbus clouds, resulting in intermittent heavy showers.  Maybe some soft hail or graupel if you are lucky.

You can see the instability in the visible satellite image this morning.  The small elements are the anvils from convective clouds.

Perhaps a more impressive view is from the infrared satellite image (the shading shows the temperature of the cloud tops, with white being the highest).  Cold, deep convection over and off our coast.

The problem for lowland snow lovers is that low-level air is coming off the warm ocean (which is about 50F), making it too warm for snow, and particularly accumulating snow, to reach sea level.

The threat of light lowland snow over the hills is not over yet.  Tomorrow morning, the upper level low and its surface reflection will approach and move south of us (see surface weather map at 8AM Saturday), with cool air over western Washington.  Very weak onshore flow.  There will be enough upward motion to promote some showers of snow and rain.

The latest UW WRF model run shows some light snow getting close to sea level for the 24h ending 5 PM Saturday.  Enjoy the snowflakes...this could be your last view of them until next winter.

from Cliff Mass Weather and Climate Blog https://ift.tt/2HW8UsP

Unusually Cold Air and Even the Chance of Light Lowland Snow with Hit the Pacific Northwest

By late March, the threat of lowland snow is normally over, temperatures are warming, and one starts thinking of gardening and hiking.

But during the next few days our relatively normal temperatures of the past week will cool substantially and some portions of lowland Washington and Oregon may get some light snow. 

The reason?  A deep upper-level trough moving southward into the eastern Pacific.

The current (5 AM Wed)  upper level map at around 30,000 ft (see below, with wind speeds shown by color and wind parallel to the height lines) already shows substantially troughing (lower pressures or heights) over the eastern Pacific, with a jet stream (stronger winds, yellow colors) well south of the Northwest. Strong southwesterly flow is bring a lot of moisture into California and large amounts of precipitation there.  The jet stream is associated with a large horizontal temperature contrast (cold north, warm south of it), and thus we are on the cold side.

But the situation is about to get more exciting for us as the low to our north greatly amplifies and moves southward (see the same map for 11 AM Friday below).  The jet stream (yellow areas) will still be south of western Washington and Oregon and northern California will remain wet.

Now lets turn to a surface chart (sea level pressure, 3000 ft temperatures--colors, and surface winds). The cold blue temperatures shows a lower atmosphere that is cold enough for snow to fall below roughly 1000 ft.  The problem for getting snow at sea level with such a pattern is that the flow is onshore (the ocean is a WARM 50F).

So what do the model snow forecasts show?  Here is the 24 total snowfall (not accumulation) ending 5 AM Friday. Some very light snow (flurries) near sea level and maybe an inch or so on the Kitsap where upslope flow will produce greater intensities (which helps bring snow to the surface).  Plenty of snow in the mountains and particularly the Olympics.

The next 24hrs?  Snow in the mountains extending down to roughly 1000 ft.

Looking at the total over the next 72 hours will bring smile to all skiers, snow-shoers and thus enjoying winter recreation.  Our regional mountains, already with an above-normal snowpack, will get a substantial hit of new snow (1-2 feet at higher elevations).   Northeast Washington gets more snow.  

The bottom line:  we are now guaranteed of going into the summer with a very healthy snowpack.  And with our reservoirs in excellent shape, water supplies for the population and agriculture are secure. 

Such a strong end to the season is typical of La Nina years, and this one is not disappointing.



from Cliff Mass Weather and Climate Blog http://ift.tt/2DITOV1

Unusually Cold Air and Even the Chance of Light Lowland Snow with Hit the Pacific Northwest

By late March, the threat of lowland snow is normally over, temperatures are warming, and one starts thinking of gardening and hiking.

But during the next few days our relatively normal temperatures of the past week will cool substantially and some portions of lowland Washington and Oregon may get some light snow. 

The reason?  A deep upper-level trough moving southward into the eastern Pacific.

The current (5 AM Wed)  upper level map at around 30,000 ft (see below, with wind speeds shown by color and wind parallel to the height lines) already shows substantially troughing (lower pressures or heights) over the eastern Pacific, with a jet stream (stronger winds, yellow colors) well south of the Northwest. Strong southwesterly flow is bring a lot of moisture into California and large amounts of precipitation there.  The jet stream is associated with a large horizontal temperature contrast (cold north, warm south of it), and thus we are on the cold side.

But the situation is about to get more exciting for us as the low to our north greatly amplifies and moves southward (see the same map for 11 AM Friday below).  The jet stream (yellow areas) will still be south of western Washington and Oregon and northern California will remain wet.

Now lets turn to a surface chart (sea level pressure, 3000 ft temperatures--colors, and surface winds). The cold blue temperatures shows a lower atmosphere that is cold enough for snow to fall below roughly 1000 ft.  The problem for getting snow at sea level with such a pattern is that the flow is onshore (the ocean is a WARM 50F).

So what do the model snow forecasts show?  Here is the 24 total snowfall (not accumulation) ending 5 AM Friday. Some very light snow (flurries) near sea level and maybe an inch or so on the Kitsap where upslope flow will produce greater intensities (which helps bring snow to the surface).  Plenty of snow in the mountains and particularly the Olympics.

The next 24hrs?  Snow in the mountains extending down to roughly 1000 ft.

Looking at the total over the next 72 hours will bring smile to all skiers, snow-shoers and thus enjoying winter recreation.  Our regional mountains, already with an above-normal snowpack, will get a substantial hit of new snow (1-2 feet at higher elevations).   Northeast Washington gets more snow.  

The bottom line:  we are now guaranteed of going into the summer with a very healthy snowpack.  And with our reservoirs in excellent shape, water supplies for the population and agriculture are secure. 

Such a strong end to the season is typical of La Nina years, and this one is not disappointing.



from Cliff Mass Weather and Climate Blog http://ift.tt/2DITOV1

Four Women Will ROW From California to Hawaii To Highlight Climate Change and Sustainability

In June, four women plan on rowing from California to Hawaii to highlight their concerns about global warming and the degradation of the world's oceans.   We are talking about journey 2400 miles on human power alone, and they are planning on doing this in less than 50 days, thus breaking the record for a women-only team to cover this huge distance.

One of the women is an undergraduate in my department, Eliza Dawson, an excellent student who plans of going to graduate school next year to study the earth's climate system.  Eliza is also a member of the UW's fabled women's crew team, and is an accomplished athlete as well.  Such an effort is not inexpensive and thus she is raising funds to support this effort (here and here).

I am intrigued by this ambitious project on many levels. 

Eliza and compatriots will view and document the current state of the northeast Pacific at close hand.  As many of you know the world's oceans have become a giant junk yard, particularly for floating plastic, and they will go through one of the worst garbage collection areas--the center of the east Pacific gyre (see images).  They plan on taking pictures and documenting the debris they pass through.

They are also concerned about the impacts of climate change on the oceans and the planet, and Eliza plans on documenting the ocean surface temperatures and other characteristics as they row from the mainland to Hawaii.

I am also fascinated by the anthropological  implications of the passage of humans from the mainland to the islands without the benefit of motorized transport.  Could ancient Hawaiians have visited North America and vice versa?  Eliza and friends will have a harder trip than native Americans, since they are not using sails, which would be quite useful for the route they are taking.

Boat and Supplies

And I am intrigued of the athleticism of this challenge....making this journey using the power of their arms.  Imagine, a month and half of rowing, 2 hours on and 2 hours off.   Imagining this is as close as I am going to get to doing it.

In order to participate in this effort, Eliza will have to raise about $20k during the next few months.  So far she has raised several thousand dollars and is turning to crowdfunding to secure the remainder.  If  you would like to assist her, please go to her fundraising web site.  I will certainly do so.

Finally, take a look at a video they produced about their upcoming trip.

Dealing with anthropogenic climate change and learning to live with our planet in a more sustainable way are two of the great challenges of our species.  It is very encouraging to see a future young scientist willing to make such a tremendous exertion to bring attention to these important issues.

from Cliff Mass Weather and Climate Blog http://ift.tt/2DFUpH6

Four Women Will ROW From California to Hawaii To Highlight Climate Change and Sustainability

In June, four women plan on rowing from California to Hawaii to highlight their concerns about global warming and the degradation of the world's oceans.   We are talking about journey 2400 miles on human power alone, and they are planning on doing this in less than 50 days, thus breaking the record for a women-only team to cover this huge distance.

One of the women is an undergraduate in my department, Eliza Dawson, an excellent student who plans of going to graduate school next year to study the earth's climate system.  Eliza is also a member of the UW's fabled women's crew team, and is an accomplished athlete as well.  Such an effort is not inexpensive and thus she is raising funds to support this effort (here and here).

I am intrigued by this ambitious project on many levels. 

Eliza and compatriots will view and document the current state of the northeast Pacific at close hand.  As many of you know the world's oceans have become a giant junk yard, particularly for floating plastic, and they will go through one of the worst garbage collection areas--the center of the east Pacific gyre (see images).  They plan on taking pictures and documenting the debris they pass through.

They are also concerned about the impacts of climate change on the oceans and the planet, and Eliza plans on documenting the ocean surface temperatures and other characteristics as they row from the mainland to Hawaii.

I am also fascinated by the anthropological  implications of the passage of humans from the mainland to the islands without the benefit of motorized transport.  Could ancient Hawaiians have visited North America and vice versa?  Eliza and friends will have a harder trip than native Americans, since they are not using sails, which would be quite useful for the route they are taking.

Boat and Supplies

And I am intrigued of the athleticism of this challenge....making this journey using the power of their arms.  Imagine, a month and half of rowing, 2 hours on and 2 hours off.   Imagining this is as close as I am going to get to doing it.

In order to participate in this effort, Eliza will have to raise about $20k during the next few months.  So far she has raised several thousand dollars and is turning to crowdfunding to secure the remainder.  If  you would like to assist her, please go to her fundraising web site.  I will certainly do so.

Finally, take a look at a video they produced about their upcoming trip.

Dealing with anthropogenic climate change and learning to live with our planet in a more sustainable way are two of the great challenges of our species.  It is very encouraging to see a future young scientist willing to make such a tremendous exertion to bring attention to these important issues.

from Cliff Mass Weather and Climate Blog http://ift.tt/2DFUpH6

California's "March Miracle" is Not Over

Some call it the "March Miracle"--the large amounts of precipitation and snow that fallen over California the past month.  The Sierra Nevada got hit by 2-5 feet this week alone. And this is a miracle that is not over, with a strong atmospheric river poised to occur over the next week.

Here are snow water equivalent maps (amount of water in the snowpack) from the National Snow Analysis for February 17 and March 17.   A huge increase in both depth and coverage.

The origin of the wet bounty over California was a shift in the large scale atmospheric circulation, with high pressure moving further offshore and persistent troughing (low pressure) developing over the West Coast.   To illustrate, here is mean upper level (500 hPa, about 18,000 ft) heights for March 10-16th. The left shows the heights (analogous to pressure) and the right shows the deviation (or anomaly) from normal.  A trough (low heights) is found right off the West Coast...that is culprit.

Well, this pattern is not going away...and in fact, it will amplify in a few days and our friends in California need to get prepared.  A trough will form west of California with strong southwesterly flow on its south side, which will entrain large amounts of tropical moisture (see map for 11 PM Tuesday below)

As a result, a strong atmospheric river will develop, which will bring tropical moisture into central and southern California (see plot of total moisture in the vertical for 5 PM Tuesday)

How much precipitation will those folks in California enjoy?   Here is the forecast accumulated precipitation over California for the next 7 days from the European Center Model:  up to 6-8 inches in the Sierra Nevada and coastal mountains.

And plenty around southern CA, such as the mountains that surround LA.

 Snowfall?  Up to 3- 4 feet in the Sierra Nevada (see below)

With all the recent snow, the Sierra Nevada snowpack is about 60% of normal.  It will get much closer to normal after the next few weeks.  And the reservoirs, already around 100% of normal, will get topped off for the upcoming dry summer.

The only negative of all this precipitation is that it will encourage the growth of grasses, which can enhance the potential for fire danger next fall after it has dried out.  

Here in the Northwest, our situation will be far less exciting than for California, with much of the big action going south of us.  The 7-day totals show the heaviest precipitation over western Oregon but only light precipitation over the Puget Sound area and the San Juans.

from Cliff Mass Weather and Climate Blog http://ift.tt/2FQMOXX