Portland Faces Historic Heat, Seattle Faces Major Heat Wave

The Puget Sound region will have a major heat wave later this week, with temperatures reaching into the upper 90s away from the water, but Portland and the Willamette Valley will face something much more severe warmth--an historic heat wave with temperatures climbing about 105F.  Perhaps, Portland might tie or beat its all-time record:  107F.

Temperatures will progressively rise during the next few days, with Portland leading Seattle on the way up.

The latest UW model forecast, verifying Thursday at 5 PM, tells a torrid story.  Over 104F from Vancouver, WA southward into the Willamette Valley.  Over 100F from Olympia and Shelton southward, and 96-100F around Puget Sound country away from the cool Puget Sound.  Cooler on the coast and over NW Washington.

This situation is one in which Portland will experience severe warmth.  The sea level pressure (solid lines) map for 5 PM Thursday, with surface winds and lower-atmosphere (925 hPa, about 3000 ft) temperatures, show very warm air in the Willamette Valley, with easterly flow over the Oregon Cascades.  Easterly flow will be weaker over western WA, resulting in less downslope warming.  

Some of the forecast guidance is showing crazy warm temperatures this week.  For Seattle (the airport), the National Weather Service GFS MOS (Model Output Statistics), which does a statistical correction to the forecast output, is going for 96F on Wed., 100F on Thursday, and 97F on Friday.  I don't remember ever seeing 100F for MOS at Sea-Tac.

And here is the weather channel (weather.com) forecast for Portland.  109F on Thursday...an all time record (and only 107F on Wednesday... tying the record).

I am a great believer in looking at ensembles (multiple runs of model forecasts) to get an idea of the confidence of the forecast and possible alternatives.  Here are the GFS ensembles (called GEFS) of surface air temperature for Seattle and Portland.  The ensemble average is the black line, and the high resolution member of the ensemble is blue.

 For Seattle, there is a lot of confidence (forecasts are on the same page) that temperatures will get to 94-98F.  Amazingly, temperatures only cool a bit for the subsequent days (to the lower 90s), but it is clear than uncertainty increases substantially (more of a spread in the forecasts).  We are talking about one of the major sustained heat waves in a long time around here.

Seattle GFS Ensemble

The Portland ensembles get into the low-100s, with the higher resolution deterministic run (blue line) rising to around 105.

Portland GFS Ensemble

Keep in mind that we are already slightly past the time for the century temperature records at Seattle.

Below are the three days on record with Sea-Tac Airport getting to 100F or more--all are in the second half of July.  The sun is starting to weaken as the days shorten, so that is working against the high temperatures a bit.

To get more insight into our chances of high temperatures, here are the record daily temperatures (yellow) and normal highs (red line) at Sea Tac Airport.  You can see the peak on July 29th of 103F.  There is a slight downward trend of the high temps in early August, with much cooler peaks in late August.  Then the peaks go up a bit in early September.  

I bet I can explain that...the sun is weakening, but we get more strong offshore flow days, which can cause warming by the compression of air sinking over the western slopes of the Cascades.

My biggest surprise today was seeing some unsold fans in my local supermarket.    I bet they will be gone in two days.  Stay cool.

from Cliff Mass Weather and Climate Blog http://ift.tt/2tT3oAE

Portland Faces Historic Heat, Seattle Faces Major Heat Wave

The Puget Sound region will have a major heat wave later this week, with temperatures reaching into the upper 90s away from the water, but Portland and the Willamette Valley will face something much more severe warmth--an historic heat wave with temperatures climbing about 105F.  Perhaps, Portland might tie or beat its all-time record:  107F.

Temperatures will progressively rise during the next few days, with Portland leading Seattle on the way up.

The latest UW model forecast, verifying Thursday at 5 PM, tells a torrid story.  Over 104F from Vancouver, WA southward into the Willamette Valley.  Over 100F from Olympia and Shelton southward, and 96-100F around Puget Sound country away from the cool Puget Sound.  Cooler on the coast and over NW Washington.

This situation is one in which Portland will experience severe warmth.  The sea level pressure (solid lines) map for 5 PM Thursday, with surface winds and lower-atmosphere (925 hPa, about 3000 ft) temperatures, show very warm air in the Willamette Valley, with easterly flow over the Oregon Cascades.  Easterly flow will be weaker over western WA, resulting in less downslope warming.  

Some of the forecast guidance is showing crazy warm temperatures this week.  For Seattle (the airport), the National Weather Service GFS MOS (Model Output Statistics), which does a statistical correction to the forecast output, is going for 96F on Wed., 100F on Thursday, and 97F on Friday.  I don't remember ever seeing 100F for MOS at Sea-Tac.

And here is the weather channel (weather.com) forecast for Portland.  109F on Thursday...an all time record (and only 107F on Wednesday... tying the record).

I am a great believer in looking at ensembles (multiple runs of model forecasts) to get an idea of the confidence of the forecast and possible alternatives.  Here are the GFS ensembles (called GEFS) of surface air temperature for Seattle and Portland.  The ensemble average is the black line, and the high resolution member of the ensemble is blue.

 For Seattle, there is a lot of confidence (forecasts are on the same page) that temperatures will get to 94-98F.  Amazingly, temperatures only cool a bit for the subsequent days (to the lower 90s), but it is clear than uncertainty increases substantially (more of a spread in the forecasts).  We are talking about one of the major sustained heat waves in a long time around here.

Seattle GFS Ensemble

The Portland ensembles get into the low-100s, with the higher resolution deterministic run (blue line) rising to around 105.

Portland GFS Ensemble

Keep in mind that we are already slightly past the time for the century temperature records at Seattle.

Below are the three days on record with Sea-Tac Airport getting to 100F or more--all are in the second half of July.  The sun is starting to weaken as the days shorten, so that is working against the high temperatures a bit.

To get more insight into our chances of high temperatures, here are the record daily temperatures (yellow) and normal highs (red line) at Sea Tac Airport.  You can see the peak on July 29th of 103F.  There is a slight downward trend of the high temps in early August, with much cooler peaks in late August.  Then the peaks go up a bit in early September.  

I bet I can explain that...the sun is weakening, but we get more strong offshore flow days, which can cause warming by the compression of air sinking over the western slopes of the Cascades.

My biggest surprise today was seeing some unsold fans in my local supermarket.    I bet they will be gone in two days.  Stay cool.

from Cliff Mass Weather and Climate Blog http://ift.tt/2tT3oAE

Superheat Coming to the Northwest This Week

If you were thinking about buying a fan this summer, I would hit the stores soon.

If you were thinking of picking up an AC unit, I would take care of that right away.

Big heat is coming to the Northwest later this week, with record breaking temperatures for many, particularly on Thursday, the warmest day.  We are talking about mid to upper 90s F around Puget Sound, and 105-110F near Portland.

During mid-week, a huge ridge of high pressure will build over the western U.S. (see upper level map--500 hPa level--for 5 PM Thursday).

The WRF forecast surface pressure map (with lower atmosphere... 925 hPa, roughly 3000 ft.... temperatures) shows the classic heat wave pattern, with low pressure (thermal trough) extending into western Washington and easterly flow over Cascades.

Take a look at the 5 PM Thursday surface air temperatures (at 2 meters) forecast by the UW WRF model (below).  Mid to upper 90s around Puget Sound (cooler right next to the water) and  over 104F across SW Washington and the Willamette Valley.   I need to change the temperature scale for such heat waves!

Weather.com has excellent forecast and they are going for 95F at Seattle-Tacoma Airport and an AMAZING 110F at Portland.  Keep in mind that this would be higher than the ALL TIME MAX temperature at Portland (107F).

Seattle

Portland

But how confident are these forecasts?  What are the uncertainties?   

As I have described many times in this blog, one should turn to ensemble forecasts (running the model many times with slightly different initial conditions and physics).   Let's start with the best ensemble system, that of the European Center, for Seattle Tacoma Airport.  Their single high resolution forecast is shown by the black line, the mean of the ensemble by the green line, and the spread of the ensembles by the whiskers and green boxes (the whisker are the extremes of the ensembles and the boxes show you the 50 percent of the forecasts closest to the median).

On Thursday, the high-resolution (deterministic) forecast is going for about 97F and the ensemble mean is ABOVE 100F!  Crazy warm.

The US GFS ensemble is peaking around 96F and all the members are very warm.  But one good thing...temperatures will cool down into the 60s at night, so with a good fan you will be able get your rooms cool enough for sleep.

The bottom line of all this information is that we have great confidence of a major warm up, with Thursday heading above 95F. I suspect several locations in the eastern suburbs of Seattle will hit 100F.   And SW Washington, Portland, and the Willamette Valley will exceed the century mark by 5-10F.   And the ensembles show the potential for even warmer conditions.

On second though, perhaps you should run to buy that fan tonight....

from Cliff Mass Weather and Climate Blog http://ift.tt/2uJjsHP

Superheat Coming to the Northwest This Week

If you were thinking about buying a fan this summer, I would hit the stores soon.

If you were thinking of picking up an AC unit, I would take care of that right away.

Big heat is coming to the Northwest later this week, with record breaking temperatures for many, particularly on Thursday, the warmest day.  We are talking about mid to upper 90s F around Puget Sound, and 105-110F near Portland.

During mid-week, a huge ridge of high pressure will build over the western U.S. (see upper level map--500 hPa level--for 5 PM Thursday).

The WRF forecast surface pressure map (with lower atmosphere... 925 hPa, roughly 3000 ft.... temperatures) shows the classic heat wave pattern, with low pressure (thermal trough) extending into western Washington and easterly flow over Cascades.

Take a look at the 5 PM Thursday surface air temperatures (at 2 meters) forecast by the UW WRF model (below).  Mid to upper 90s around Puget Sound (cooler right next to the water) and  over 104F across SW Washington and the Willamette Valley.   I need to change the temperature scale for such heat waves!

Weather.com has excellent forecast and they are going for 95F at Seattle-Tacoma Airport and an AMAZING 110F at Portland.  Keep in mind that this would be higher than the ALL TIME MAX temperature at Portland (107F).

Seattle

Portland

But how confident are these forecasts?  What are the uncertainties?   

As I have described many times in this blog, one should turn to ensemble forecasts (running the model many times with slightly different initial conditions and physics).   Let's start with the best ensemble system, that of the European Center, for Seattle Tacoma Airport.  Their single high resolution forecast is shown by the black line, the mean of the ensemble by the green line, and the spread of the ensembles by the whiskers and green boxes (the whisker are the extremes of the ensembles and the boxes show you the 50 percent of the forecasts closest to the median).

On Thursday, the high-resolution (deterministic) forecast is going for about 97F and the ensemble mean is ABOVE 100F!  Crazy warm.

The US GFS ensemble is peaking around 96F and all the members are very warm.  But one good thing...temperatures will cool down into the 60s at night, so with a good fan you will be able get your rooms cool enough for sleep.

The bottom line of all this information is that we have great confidence of a major warm up, with Thursday heading above 95F. I suspect several locations in the eastern suburbs of Seattle will hit 100F.   And SW Washington, Portland, and the Willamette Valley will exceed the century mark by 5-10F.   And the ensembles show the potential for even warmer conditions.

On second though, perhaps you should run to buy that fan tonight....

from Cliff Mass Weather and Climate Blog http://ift.tt/2uJjsHP

Drizzle Storm Hits Seattle: One Record Lost

A deepening marine layer this morning resulted in a period of very light drizzle, producing a trace (less than .01 inches) of precipitation at Seattle-Tacoma Airport.

As a result, we have lost the chance for a big record:  the first July or any month without any precipitation at Seattle-Tacoma Airport, a location with data back to 1948.

The visible satellite imagery this morning at 9 AM shows marine clouds over western WA.

And the Seattle Space Needle Panocam shows a very moist, drippy lower atmosphere.

The hourly observations shows the precipitation event (L- indicates very light rain and T means trace). Drizzle started at 6:42 AM and ended 7:29 AM).

Since we had only a trace of rain, we still might beat the big record--the record number of days in a row without measurable rain  (51 days).  

Today, we are at day 40.  The latest European Center model ensemble forecast prediction for 24-h precipitation suggests we are on the edge for beating the record, particularly with a potential light event on August 31st when the ensemble mean reaches .012 inches.

Keep your fingers crossed.



from Cliff Mass Weather and Climate Blog http://ift.tt/2v3pXGb

Drizzle Storm Hits Seattle: One Record Lost

A deepening marine layer this morning resulted in a period of very light drizzle, producing a trace (less than .01 inches) of precipitation at Seattle-Tacoma Airport.

As a result, we have lost the chance for a big record:  the first July or any month without any precipitation at Seattle-Tacoma Airport, a location with data back to 1948.

The visible satellite imagery this morning at 9 AM shows marine clouds over western WA.

And the Seattle Space Needle Panocam shows a very moist, drippy lower atmosphere.

The hourly observations shows the precipitation event (L- indicates very light rain and T means trace). Drizzle started at 6:42 AM and ended 7:29 AM).

Since we had only a trace of rain, we still might beat the big record--the record number of days in a row without measurable rain  (51 days).  

Today, we are at day 40.  The latest European Center model ensemble forecast prediction for 24-h precipitation suggests we are on the edge for beating the record, particularly with a potential light event on August 31st when the ensemble mean reaches .012 inches.

Keep your fingers crossed.



from Cliff Mass Weather and Climate Blog http://ift.tt/2v3pXGb

How to Get a Fair Roofing Estimate

Whether your roof is suffering from an animal infestation or the aftermath of a severe storm, roofing contractors know that homeowners are often on edge when fielding those frustrated phone calls that come in right as the office opens. Some unscrupulous types may try to take advantage of potential customers’ sense of panic and emergency. So how do you know if you’re getting the best bang for your buck?

Well, if you’re in need of roof repairs or perhaps even an entirely new roof, here are a few tips to guide you when it comes to getting proper roofing estimates and choosing reliable, trustworthy contractors to get the job done at a reasonable price.

Shop around

When a company wants to hire an employee, they don’t just pick the first person that walks through the door. They interview multiple candidates, sometimes more than once, and then come to a final decision after some consideration. The moral of the story here is don’t be tempted by the first estimate you hear.

You never want to be pressured into signing a contract with a roofer before insurers have given you an official damage estimate. In fact, a good contractor will even double check the insurers’ work to make sure that they didn’t miss anything!

Call at least three different contractors to get their estimates and actually speak to somebody at the other end of the line. Friends and family members are a great source of recommendations, so why not start there? You can also check websites like the Better Business Bureau to ensure that your contractors are legitimate and properly accredited.

Get references

Good contractors will have a solid history of work behind them, and should be more than happy – and capable – of providing you with at least three references. Given that this is the twenty-first century, you should be able to snoop around pretty quickly and find out if all three references came from your contractor’s mother. Fake reviews are not uncommon, so make sure to do your due diligence by carefully assessing anything you read online.

Similarly, double check to see that your roofing contractors are licensed and insured. They need to have General Liability insurance, as well as Workers’ Compensation insurance. Don’t cut costs by trying to get somebody under the table without official documentation. If something goes wrong or if somebody gets injured, roofing problems will be the least of your worries.

Go to the source

Roofers have to get their material somewhere, and those people are the suppliers. Knowledge is your best friend, so don’t forget to ask your potential roofing contractors about the material costs when getting an estimate. After that, go to the source by calling up the suppliers so that you can get an idea of the markup. While you can’t get away from a contractor markup, there’s a difference between reasonable and highway robbery.

On another note, don’t forget to ensure that the suppliers have a good relationship with the contractors, and that they are paid in a timely, regular manner. Angry suppliers may hit you up if their bills aren’t paid!

While you’re at it, you might as well also ask about material warranties and check into the suppliers’ history as well. You don’t want to pay for a roof that look great now, but that may not be so nice five years from now. (Bonus points if the material warranty is transferrable from one homeowner to the next.)

Learn the lingo

Experts in any subject matter tend to get lost in things like acronyms or special vocabulary. They may assume their interlocutor knows what they’re talking about. Contractors may not expect homeowners to be fully familiar with roofing lingo, and this can work to a clueless person’s disadvantage. By knowing what a contractor is actually talking about – and more importantly, what they’re looking for in a roofing estimate – you can make sure that they are as thorough as they claim. Furthermore, you’ll be able to better judge if the work they say needs to be done and the given estimates add up.

Ask about additional fees

When shopping around for a good contractor, you’ll want to be sure that an estimate not only includes material costs, but labour and incidental costs as well. Nobody wants to be stuck paying for unforeseen fees. This may include anything related to supply transportation, cleanup, permit costs and waste disposal.

While all this poking around may seem like an awful lot of work, roof-repairs and installations are a huge investment for any homeowner. Even if you can literally see the stars through your roof because the damage is so severe, take a deep breath and step away from the situation for a second. By being thorough in your line of questioning, you can get reasonable quotes and have a good understanding of the situation and the work you are paying for.

from Home Design Ideas | Interior Design Ideas And Architcture http://ift.tt/2tEaVD5

How to Get a Fair Roofing Estimate

Whether your roof is suffering from an animal infestation or the aftermath of a severe storm, roofing contractors know that homeowners are often on edge when fielding those frustrated phone calls that come in right as the office opens. Some unscrupulous types may try to take advantage of potential customers’ sense of panic and emergency. So how do you know if you’re getting the best bang for your buck?

Well, if you’re in need of roof repairs or perhaps even an entirely new roof, here are a few tips to guide you when it comes to getting proper roofing estimates and choosing reliable, trustworthy contractors to get the job done at a reasonable price.

Shop around

When a company wants to hire an employee, they don’t just pick the first person that walks through the door. They interview multiple candidates, sometimes more than once, and then come to a final decision after some consideration. The moral of the story here is don’t be tempted by the first estimate you hear.

You never want to be pressured into signing a contract with a roofer before insurers have given you an official damage estimate. In fact, a good contractor will even double check the insurers’ work to make sure that they didn’t miss anything!

Call at least three different contractors to get their estimates and actually speak to somebody at the other end of the line. Friends and family members are a great source of recommendations, so why not start there? You can also check websites like the Better Business Bureau to ensure that your contractors are legitimate and properly accredited.

Get references

Good contractors will have a solid history of work behind them, and should be more than happy – and capable – of providing you with at least three references. Given that this is the twenty-first century, you should be able to snoop around pretty quickly and find out if all three references came from your contractor’s mother. Fake reviews are not uncommon, so make sure to do your due diligence by carefully assessing anything you read online.

Similarly, double check to see that your roofing contractors are licensed and insured. They need to have General Liability insurance, as well as Workers’ Compensation insurance. Don’t cut costs by trying to get somebody under the table without official documentation. If something goes wrong or if somebody gets injured, roofing problems will be the least of your worries.

Go to the source

Roofers have to get their material somewhere, and those people are the suppliers. Knowledge is your best friend, so don’t forget to ask your potential roofing contractors about the material costs when getting an estimate. After that, go to the source by calling up the suppliers so that you can get an idea of the markup. While you can’t get away from a contractor markup, there’s a difference between reasonable and highway robbery.

On another note, don’t forget to ensure that the suppliers have a good relationship with the contractors, and that they are paid in a timely, regular manner. Angry suppliers may hit you up if their bills aren’t paid!

While you’re at it, you might as well also ask about material warranties and check into the suppliers’ history as well. You don’t want to pay for a roof that look great now, but that may not be so nice five years from now. (Bonus points if the material warranty is transferrable from one homeowner to the next.)

Learn the lingo

Experts in any subject matter tend to get lost in things like acronyms or special vocabulary. They may assume their interlocutor knows what they’re talking about. Contractors may not expect homeowners to be fully familiar with roofing lingo, and this can work to a clueless person’s disadvantage. By knowing what a contractor is actually talking about – and more importantly, what they’re looking for in a roofing estimate – you can make sure that they are as thorough as they claim. Furthermore, you’ll be able to better judge if the work they say needs to be done and the given estimates add up.

Ask about additional fees

When shopping around for a good contractor, you’ll want to be sure that an estimate not only includes material costs, but labour and incidental costs as well. Nobody wants to be stuck paying for unforeseen fees. This may include anything related to supply transportation, cleanup, permit costs and waste disposal.

While all this poking around may seem like an awful lot of work, roof-repairs and installations are a huge investment for any homeowner. Even if you can literally see the stars through your roof because the damage is so severe, take a deep breath and step away from the situation for a second. By being thorough in your line of questioning, you can get reasonable quotes and have a good understanding of the situation and the work you are paying for.

from Home Design Ideas | Interior Design Ideas And Architcture http://ift.tt/2tEaVD5

Major Dry-Day Records May Be Broken

As July approaches its end, it is becoming increasingly likely that Seattle and other northwest locations may break some major records regarding lack of rain:

1.   In Seattle, the first July without a trace of rain and the driest July on record.
2.   The longest run of days without measurable precipitation in Seattle.  (measurable rain means at least .01 inch of rain).  The current record is 51 days and today we have gotten through 38 dry days in a row.

The last month has been quite dry....but it is important to note that this IS the driest time of the year in the Northwest and we are one of driest places in the country during midsummer.  To illustrate the situation, here is the percent of average precipitation for the past month (6/24-7/23).  Much of the western U.S., including western Washington, Oregon, and California,t has received less than 2% of the normal amounts.

Now this sounds very scary, but it really isn't as extreme and impactful as you might think, considering we are now in the West Coast dry season, which enjoys a Mediterranean Climate (wet winter, dry summer).   To illustrate, here is the difference of the precipitation of the past month from normal (climatology).  Most of California and Oregon are less than an inch drier than normal.   Western Washington is the most anomalous, with 1-2 inches below normal.

The origin of our dry period is fairly clear:  persistent high pressure over the West Coast, something illustrated by this graph, which shows the difference from normal of recent upper atmosphere (500 hPa) heights (green/yellow signifies above average).

We are not only dry, but are entering the driest time of the year, as illustrated from this plot of the probability of .01 inch of precipitation in a day.

So what is the forecast?

 Let's start with the best extended predictions:  the 24h precipitation forecasts of the European Center ensemble of 51 forecasts out to 9 August.  The top panel shows the individual precipitation forecasts, with most showing nothing through the end of the month, with only about half showing very light rain during early August.  The bottom panel shows the ensemble mean (or average), which is typically a very good forecast.   

The bottom line:   the July record looks probable and we have a good chance and beating the 51 day record.

To get another view of forecasts, here is the output of the NAEFS ensemble--a combination of the U.S. and Canadian ensemble forecasts--through August 8.  The second panel shows precipitation forecasts (in mm).  Dry though July and a small chance of very light precipitation after August 4th.

More support of us having a real shot at the 51 day consecutive dry-day record.

One interesting issue:  the dry weather has been associated with very little lightning, resulting in only a modest number of wildfires so far.  

from Cliff Mass Weather and Climate Blog http://ift.tt/2uVd4OD

Major Dry-Day Records May Be Broken

As July approaches its end, it is becoming increasingly likely that Seattle and other northwest locations may break some major records regarding lack of rain:

1.   In Seattle, the first July without a trace of rain and the driest July on record.
2.   The longest run of days without measurable precipitation in Seattle.  (measurable rain means at least .01 inch of rain).  The current record is 51 days and today we have gotten through 38 dry days in a row.

The last month has been quite dry....but it is important to note that this IS the driest time of the year in the Northwest and we are one of driest places in the country during midsummer.  To illustrate the situation, here is the percent of average precipitation for the past month (6/24-7/23).  Much of the western U.S., including western Washington, Oregon, and California,t has received less than 2% of the normal amounts.

Now this sounds very scary, but it really isn't as extreme and impactful as you might think, considering we are now in the West Coast dry season, which enjoys a Mediterranean Climate (wet winter, dry summer).   To illustrate, here is the difference of the precipitation of the past month from normal (climatology).  Most of California and Oregon are less than an inch drier than normal.   Western Washington is the most anomalous, with 1-2 inches below normal.

The origin of our dry period is fairly clear:  persistent high pressure over the West Coast, something illustrated by this graph, which shows the difference from normal of recent upper atmosphere (500 hPa) heights (green/yellow signifies above average).

We are not only dry, but are entering the driest time of the year, as illustrated from this plot of the probability of .01 inch of precipitation in a day.

So what is the forecast?

 Let's start with the best extended predictions:  the 24h precipitation forecasts of the European Center ensemble of 51 forecasts out to 9 August.  The top panel shows the individual precipitation forecasts, with most showing nothing through the end of the month, with only about half showing very light rain during early August.  The bottom panel shows the ensemble mean (or average), which is typically a very good forecast.   

The bottom line:   the July record looks probable and we have a good chance and beating the 51 day record.

To get another view of forecasts, here is the output of the NAEFS ensemble--a combination of the U.S. and Canadian ensemble forecasts--through August 8.  The second panel shows precipitation forecasts (in mm).  Dry though July and a small chance of very light precipitation after August 4th.

More support of us having a real shot at the 51 day consecutive dry-day record.

One interesting issue:  the dry weather has been associated with very little lightning, resulting in only a modest number of wildfires so far.  

from Cliff Mass Weather and Climate Blog http://ift.tt/2uVd4OD