The Cold Blob is here: what does this imply for this summer?

There is "The Force" and the "Dark Side of the Force"

There is matter and anti-matter.

And yes, there is Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton

All polar opposites.

But there is another contrasting pair that all meteorologists should be familiar with:

"The Warm Blob" and the "The Cold Blob"    Also known as the Blob and the Anti-Blob

This Blob blog will tell you about the current situation and correct some misconceptions in the public domain about this misunderstood creature of the Pacific.

Many of you know about the warm Blob, a persistent area of warm water over the eastern Pacific (see image for the sea surface temperature anomaly, difference from normal, for Feb-March 2014).  This was a very strong Blob, with localized eastern Pacific waters as much as 4-7F about normal.

 One to two years ago, the warm blob was evident and the media took a LOT of notice.   Some suggested it caused our warm weather.  Some said it was the result of global warming.  The truth is that the warm blob was the tail, not the dog, and was forced by persistent high pressure over the eastern Pacific.

Many Blob lovers were dismayed with a dramatic change during the last year, with the warm Blob disappearing and shockingly, a cold Blob taking its place.  But few in the media covered this radical shift (for reasons I will let each of you imagine).

Here is a map of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (again difference from normal) for a few days ago.  Blue is colder than normal.  A cold Blob is off the West Coast, with temperatures reaching roughly 1.5 C (~2.5F) colder than typical.  Enough to put a chill down your back.

Why the chilly eastern Pacific?

Because instead of the high pressure anomaly that was over the eastern Pacific during 2014 and 2015, the atmosphere switched to a low pressure anomaly (a persistent trough) during the past winter.  To prove this to you, here are the 3-month 500-hPa height anomalies (difference from average) for October to December and January to March (blue indicates lower than normal heights--think of it as low pressure).  Low pressure is associated with stormier conditions that mix up the upper ocean (bring colder water to the surface).

What do the latest computer model forecasts suggest for the cold BLOB?  Here is the forecast of the large international medium range ensemble system (IMME), providing the predicted SST anomalies for June, July, August.   The cold Blob is still there, but weakens, with most of the northeast Pacific being near normal.

So what does this imply about our summer weather?

Not much.   

The effects of the surface temperature of the Pacific on our air temperatures are very modest, something I have proven with a series of simulation experiments in which I exchanged the warm Blob temperatures with normal conditions.   Only cooled the region west of the Cascade crest by a few degrees.    So having slightly cooler temperatures offshore will not stop a heat wave, but might contribute to a slightly cooler summer.

I do have some good news for Blob lovers:  there will be a modern remake of the old movie classic, including "Snakes on the Plane" star Samuel L. Jackson.   I can see it now.....perhaps he will be a meteorologist.... I have had enough of those **** Blobs in the **** Pacific Ocean.  It will be marvelous.



from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2rjc3xG

The Cold Blob is here: what does this imply for this summer?

There is "The Force" and the "Dark Side of the Force"

There is matter and anti-matter.

And yes, there is Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton

All polar opposites.

But there is another contrasting pair that all meteorologists should be familiar with:

"The Warm Blob" and the "The Cold Blob"    Also known as the Blob and the Anti-Blob

This Blob blog will tell you about the current situation and correct some misconceptions in the public domain about this misunderstood creature of the Pacific.

Many of you know about the warm Blob, a persistent area of warm water over the eastern Pacific (see image for the sea surface temperature anomaly, difference from normal, for Feb-March 2014).  This was a very strong Blob, with localized eastern Pacific waters as much as 4-7F about normal.

 One to two years ago, the warm blob was evident and the media took a LOT of notice.   Some suggested it caused our warm weather.  Some said it was the result of global warming.  The truth is that the warm blob was the tail, not the dog, and was forced by persistent high pressure over the eastern Pacific.

Many Blob lovers were dismayed with a dramatic change during the last year, with the warm Blob disappearing and shockingly, a cold Blob taking its place.  But few in the media covered this radical shift (for reasons I will let each of you imagine).

Here is a map of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (again difference from normal) for a few days ago.  Blue is colder than normal.  A cold Blob is off the West Coast, with temperatures reaching roughly 1.5 C (~2.5F) colder than typical.  Enough to put a chill down your back.

Why the chilly eastern Pacific?

Because instead of the high pressure anomaly that was over the eastern Pacific during 2014 and 2015, the atmosphere switched to a low pressure anomaly (a persistent trough) during the past winter.  To prove this to you, here are the 3-month 500-hPa height anomalies (difference from average) for October to December and January to March (blue indicates lower than normal heights--think of it as low pressure).  Low pressure is associated with stormier conditions that mix up the upper ocean (bring colder water to the surface).

What do the latest computer model forecasts suggest for the cold BLOB?  Here is the forecast of the large international medium range ensemble system (IMME), providing the predicted SST anomalies for June, July, August.   The cold Blob is still there, but weakens, with most of the northeast Pacific being near normal.

So what does this imply about our summer weather?

Not much.   

The effects of the surface temperature of the Pacific on our air temperatures are very modest, something I have proven with a series of simulation experiments in which I exchanged the warm Blob temperatures with normal conditions.   Only cooled the region west of the Cascade crest by a few degrees.    So having slightly cooler temperatures offshore will not stop a heat wave, but might contribute to a slightly cooler summer.

I do have some good news for Blob lovers:  there will be a modern remake of the old movie classic, including "Snakes on the Plane" star Samuel L. Jackson.   I can see it now.....perhaps he will be a meteorologist.... I have had enough of those **** Blobs in the **** Pacific Ocean.  It will be marvelous.



from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2rjc3xG

Spring Stratus Inundates the Eastern Pacific

Every spring it happens---the eastern Pacific, offshore of the West Coast, fills with stratus--and this year is no different.  This norming's Norhtwest visible satellite imagery show stratus/stratocumulus over the offshore waters, with some of it extending eastward  into the Strait of Juan de Fuca and south of the Olympics.   This onshore extension is being encouraged by a weak onshore pressure gradient (about 1 hPa higher at Hoquiam than Seattle).  Small variations in the east-west pressure differences controls our summer weather.

Pulling back to see the entire West Coast,  there are clouds offshore from southern California to British Columbia.  We are all in this coastal soup together.  And for the same reason:  an extensive area of high pressure!

A few days ago, a ridge of high pressure started building offshore (see upper level, 500 hPa, map for 5 AM Thursday.

But as the days passed, the ridge slowly drifted eastward (see map for 5 AM Saturday).  But still impressive.

Building high pressure offshore is good for coastal stratus development in many ways. High pressure aloft is associated with sinking (or subsidence) that weakens towards the surface.  Sinking causes warming by compression, so there is more warming aloft.  Plus, air near the surface is cooled by contact with the cold Pacific.  Both of these mechanism tends to create an inversion (warming with height) above the surface, which is very stable (fights against vertical mixing).  That leaves a shallow layer near the ocean that is cold and moist--and full of stratus/stratocumulus.   Higher pressure offshore at low levels helps to gently push the marine air into western Washington.

Let me illustrate what is going to by showing you a vertical sounding at 5 AM this morning from a balloon-borne radiosonde at Quillayute, on the WA coast. Red is temperature, blue dots indicate dew point, a measure of moisture. Very nice inversion at low levels (temp increasing with height) and shallow saturated layer (temp and dew point the same) near the surface.  The air is actually quite dry aloft (dew point and temperature are separated).

High pressure becomes more persistent in June over the eastern Pacific and low clouds will be a familiar sight.  The result for the Northwest?   June gloom with lots of low clouds and temperatures in the 60s.  Enjoy.

from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2rajJQH

Spring Stratus Inundates the Eastern Pacific

Every spring it happens---the eastern Pacific, offshore of the West Coast, fills with stratus--and this year is no different.  This norming's Norhtwest visible satellite imagery show stratus/stratocumulus over the offshore waters, with some of it extending eastward  into the Strait of Juan de Fuca and south of the Olympics.   This onshore extension is being encouraged by a weak onshore pressure gradient (about 1 hPa higher at Hoquiam than Seattle).  Small variations in the east-west pressure differences controls our summer weather.

Pulling back to see the entire West Coast,  there are clouds offshore from southern California to British Columbia.  We are all in this coastal soup together.  And for the same reason:  an extensive area of high pressure!

A few days ago, a ridge of high pressure started building offshore (see upper level, 500 hPa, map for 5 AM Thursday.

But as the days passed, the ridge slowly drifted eastward (see map for 5 AM Saturday).  But still impressive.

Building high pressure offshore is good for coastal stratus development in many ways. High pressure aloft is associated with sinking (or subsidence) that weakens towards the surface.  Sinking causes warming by compression, so there is more warming aloft.  Plus, air near the surface is cooled by contact with the cold Pacific.  Both of these mechanism tends to create an inversion (warming with height) above the surface, which is very stable (fights against vertical mixing).  That leaves a shallow layer near the ocean that is cold and moist--and full of stratus/stratocumulus.   Higher pressure offshore at low levels helps to gently push the marine air into western Washington.

Let me illustrate what is going to by showing you a vertical sounding at 5 AM this morning from a balloon-borne radiosonde at Quillayute, on the WA coast. Red is temperature, blue dots indicate dew point, a measure of moisture. Very nice inversion at low levels (temp increasing with height) and shallow saturated layer (temp and dew point the same) near the surface.  The air is actually quite dry aloft (dew point and temperature are separated).

High pressure becomes more persistent in June over the eastern Pacific and low clouds will be a familiar sight.  The result for the Northwest?   June gloom with lots of low clouds and temperatures in the 60s.  Enjoy.

from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2rajJQH

It’s Time to Give Back: Church Remodeling Ideas to Try

We’ve talked about plenty of remodeling and interior design ideas over the years, but we seldom cover ideas and tricks for remodeling public facilities. In reality, the parks near our home and the church we visit every Sunday play an equally important role in setting the ambiance and feel of the entire community.

A church remodeling project can be something fun to share with the community. On top of that, you don’t need to stage a complicated project to turn a simple, modest church into a beautiful one. Here are some of the remodeling ideas you can try right away.

A Library Corner

One of the best projects to try if you want to add new things to the community church is adding a reading corner or a library. This is a relatively easy project, to begin with, especially if the church building already has enough space to accommodate an extra reading corner. All you need is a set of shelves and some comfortable seats.

Try to stick to simpler design lines and elements so that the reading corner blends nicely with the church’s interior. DIY ideas work really well too. Rain gutter bookshelves arranged neatly in one corner of the church is a great idea.

The entire community can then contribute books for visitors to read. Divide books into sections based on topics and other criteria. Make sure there is enough seating for children too since they’ll be the ones spending the most time in the reading corner.

Better Seating

Another great remodeling idea to try is adding better seating to the church. Older churches usually have wooden chairs for visitors. Replacing these chairs with a more modern and comfortable seating can be beneficial to the church and its visitors. Not only will you feel more comfortable during worships you can also increase the church’s capacity through a better seating arrangement.

A lot of products on the market are specifically designed for this particular purpose. The Seating Concepts fixed church seating, for example, is designed to be both comfortable and space-efficient. The seats are easy to install and come with proper padding for maximum comfort. You can also choose the color scheme depending on the interior of the church.

More Natural Light

Last, but certainly not least, we have the need for natural light. Most churches – especially older ones – rely on natural light as the main source of lighting. Why not try adding bigger, more open windows?

This is a slightly bigger remodeling project to take on, but the result is definitely worth pursuing. The main worship room of the church can be made a lot brighter and warmer just by adding a couple of large windows to each side of the church. Ceiling windows are also great alternatives to look into.

Of course, these are just some remodeling ideas to try if you want to give back to the community. Church remodeling has the ability to transform an old local church into the centerpiece of the entire community.

from Home Design Ideas | Interior Design Ideas And Architcture http://ift.tt/2rseXRG

It’s Time to Give Back: Church Remodeling Ideas to Try

We’ve talked about plenty of remodeling and interior design ideas over the years, but we seldom cover ideas and tricks for remodeling public facilities. In reality, the parks near our home and the church we visit every Sunday play an equally important role in setting the ambiance and feel of the entire community.

A church remodeling project can be something fun to share with the community. On top of that, you don’t need to stage a complicated project to turn a simple, modest church into a beautiful one. Here are some of the remodeling ideas you can try right away.

A Library Corner

One of the best projects to try if you want to add new things to the community church is adding a reading corner or a library. This is a relatively easy project, to begin with, especially if the church building already has enough space to accommodate an extra reading corner. All you need is a set of shelves and some comfortable seats.

Try to stick to simpler design lines and elements so that the reading corner blends nicely with the church’s interior. DIY ideas work really well too. Rain gutter bookshelves arranged neatly in one corner of the church is a great idea.

The entire community can then contribute books for visitors to read. Divide books into sections based on topics and other criteria. Make sure there is enough seating for children too since they’ll be the ones spending the most time in the reading corner.

Better Seating

Another great remodeling idea to try is adding better seating to the church. Older churches usually have wooden chairs for visitors. Replacing these chairs with a more modern and comfortable seating can be beneficial to the church and its visitors. Not only will you feel more comfortable during worships you can also increase the church’s capacity through a better seating arrangement.

A lot of products on the market are specifically designed for this particular purpose. The Seating Concepts fixed church seating, for example, is designed to be both comfortable and space-efficient. The seats are easy to install and come with proper padding for maximum comfort. You can also choose the color scheme depending on the interior of the church.

More Natural Light

Last, but certainly not least, we have the need for natural light. Most churches – especially older ones – rely on natural light as the main source of lighting. Why not try adding bigger, more open windows?

This is a slightly bigger remodeling project to take on, but the result is definitely worth pursuing. The main worship room of the church can be made a lot brighter and warmer just by adding a couple of large windows to each side of the church. Ceiling windows are also great alternatives to look into.

Of course, these are just some remodeling ideas to try if you want to give back to the community. Church remodeling has the ability to transform an old local church into the centerpiece of the entire community.

from Home Design Ideas | Interior Design Ideas And Architcture http://ift.tt/2rseXRG

Seattle Versus San Francisco Weather: Our Summers Are Better

Seattle folks sometime feel a bit of an inferiority complex relative to the denizens of the Bay area, with some suggesting that the SF area has better weather.  But the truth is that Seattle has better late spring/summer weather and this weekend is a good example.

The Space Needle Pano Cam at 11 AM Friday shows blue skies and perfect weather conditions.

A San Francisco cam show dreary low clouds.  Depressing.   So bad that the airport had extensive delays.  Seattle has much nice buildings by the way

Take a look at the visible satellite imagery Friday morning. Western WA is clear, with a some low clouds offshore.

 The Bay Area is all socked in.  And there is a low pressure center offshore with spiraling cloud bands.  Looks scary.

The weather.com 5-day weather prediction for Seattle is forecasting superb conditions, with temperatures rising into the lower 80s for the entire weekend.

San Francisco has a bleak outlook, with highs in the lower 60S and lots of clouds. Depressing.

I know what some of you are thinking....this is just one weekend.   Does SF really have inferior summers?   Well, lets look at the climatologies for both cities.   Seattle's typical high temps (red line) peak in late July and August around 73F.

San Francisco only gets into the mid-60s that time of the year.   They have a strange annual temperature variation with their highest temperatures (only around 70F) in September...and this doesn't do them much good, since kids are back in school and folks have returned from their summer vacations.

And now the shocker.... Seattle has MORE HOURS OF SUNSHINE than San Francisco in July and August.  Don't bother looking at other months.

 The bottom line of all this is clear:  Seattle has a nearly perfect summer climate and SF's summers are not quite as good.  And don't forget about the wisdom of Mark Twain:

"The coldest winter I ever spent was a summer in San Francisco."

from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2r78Q4n

Seattle Versus San Francisco Weather: Our Summers Are Better

Seattle folks sometime feel a bit of an inferiority complex relative to the denizens of the Bay area, with some suggesting that the SF area has better weather.  But the truth is that Seattle has better late spring/summer weather and this weekend is a good example.

The Space Needle Pano Cam at 11 AM Friday shows blue skies and perfect weather conditions.

A San Francisco cam show dreary low clouds.  Depressing.   So bad that the airport had extensive delays.  Seattle has much nice buildings by the way

Take a look at the visible satellite imagery Friday morning. Western WA is clear, with a some low clouds offshore.

 The Bay Area is all socked in.  And there is a low pressure center offshore with spiraling cloud bands.  Looks scary.

The weather.com 5-day weather prediction for Seattle is forecasting superb conditions, with temperatures rising into the lower 80s for the entire weekend.

San Francisco has a bleak outlook, with highs in the lower 60S and lots of clouds. Depressing.

I know what some of you are thinking....this is just one weekend.   Does SF really have inferior summers?   Well, lets look at the climatologies for both cities.   Seattle's typical high temps (red line) peak in late July and August around 73F.

San Francisco only gets into the mid-60s that time of the year.   They have a strange annual temperature variation with their highest temperatures (only around 70F) in September...and this doesn't do them much good, since kids are back in school and folks have returned from their summer vacations.

And now the shocker.... Seattle has MORE HOURS OF SUNSHINE than San Francisco in July and August.  Don't bother looking at other months.

 The bottom line of all this is clear:  Seattle has a nearly perfect summer climate and SF's summers are not quite as good.  And don't forget about the wisdom of Mark Twain:

"The coldest winter I ever spent was a summer in San Francisco."

from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2r78Q4n

President Trump's Budget Plan Weakens U.S. Weather Prediction

When I read through President Trump's budget plan for NOAA and the National Weather Service, I was both disappointed and disturbed.   One would be hard pressed to come up with a plan that could more effectively undermine our nation's weather prediction capabilities.

And strangely, the proposed budget directly contradicts the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act just passed by the Republican-dominated Congress and SIGNED by President Trump.

Let me review some of the recommendations of the NOAA budget plan---you will not believe them.  

1.  "NOAA requests a reduction of $5,000,000 to slow the transition of advanced modeling research into operations for improved warnings and forecasts. "

The U.S. is behind in numerical weather prediction and Congress had provided funding to replace the aged GFS with a Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) and other major improvements.  A five million dollar reduction will cripple the National Weather Service's ability to build the new modeling system and will also undermine improvements in hurricane forecasts.

2. "Terminate Investment in Mid-Range Weather Outlooks: NOAA requests a decrease of $5,000,000 to terminate all development, testing, and implementation of experimental products to extend operational weather outlooks, including temperature and precipitation outlooks, from 16 days to 30 days."

Perhaps one of the areas of greatest potential in weather prediction is extended skill into the subseasonal domain (2 weeks to a month).  Subseasonal prediction was the CENTERPIECE of the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act noted above (which was pushed and supported by Republicans in Congress).
And now Trump's folks want to zero it out.   Just wacky.

3.  "NOAA requests a decrease of $11,000,000 to reduce or eliminate components of its Tsunami Research and Operational Warning program. ..Support for preparedness education, outreach, and innovation research will cease. This program change request is consistent with the elimination of the DART® moorings"

There is great concern about loss of life associated with tsunamis, particularly after hundreds of thousands of people died in the Indian Ocean event of 2004.   The West Coast of the U.S. is particularly vulnerable.   A key resource for tsunami prediction is the DART buoy system (see above), which can sense anomalous increases in water level.  Stunningly, the Trump plan would eliminate these buoys (which we have already invested in), putting American and other lives at risk.  Madness.

4. "Reduce Surface and Marine Observations: NOAA will reduce surface and marine observations by $25,989,000, including the National Mesonet Program, Weather and Ocean Platform, and the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) array. It also will reduce marine observations that inform forecasts and warnings as well as understanding of global environmental patterns, such as El Niño."

Talk about going blind.  This approach will savage the nation's observation system (such as the high density mesonet program) and end the buoy array over the Pacific, which helps us diagnose and predict El Nino and La Nina.

5. "Eliminate Arctic Research: NOAA requests decreases of $2,230,000 from Climate Laboratories and Cooperative Institutes and $3,770,000 from Regional Climate Data and Information. This reduction will terminate Arctic research focused on improvements to sea ice modeling and predictions that support the safety of fishermen, commercial shippers, cruise ships, and local communities."

One of the key deficiencies for weather and seasonal forecasting is poor understanding of changes in sea ice distribution and how to forecast them.   Trump's budget proposed to terminate all research in this area.  Unbelievable

6. "End Vortex-Southeast: NOAA requests a decrease of $5,000,000 to terminate Vortex-Southeast, a program used to detect, respond to, and warn against tornadoes in the Southeastern United States."

There is much we don't know about the origins and prediction of tornadoes and field programs like Vortex provide critical insights.  But Trump's folks want to terminate this important research program, which is surprising since tornadoes impact many red states.
_____________

These are only a few of the outrageous, irrational cuts listed in the Trump NOAA budget plan.  The result of these and other cutbacks would be to set back U.S. weather prediction several years, giving up any chance of advancing our nation's weather prediction capabilities to state-of-the-science.  

The economic impact of poorer weather predictions would be large and negative.  Bizarrely,  this budget plan directly works against the recently passed Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act, that was pushed by Republican leadership in Congress and signed by President Trump.

How can a President pushing to " Make American Great, Again" propose a budget that will "Make America's Weather Prediction Inferior, Again"?

Republican staffers in Congress have told me that Trump's budget is dead on arrival and that they will act to protect the nation's weather prediction capabilities.  Since the worst weather in the nation (e.g., tornadoes, hurricanes, severe thunderstorms) is found in red states, you would expect the Republicans to take weather forecasting seriously.   Most do.

And perhaps there is a silver lining to this situation. Might Trump's crazy budget inspire moderate Republicans and Democrats to work together to put together a rational budget plan for NOAA and other agencies?  One could hope.

from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2rXxhy6