Wednesday, November 30, 2016
Will Snow Hit the Puget Sound Lowlands in a Few Days?
Some of the media have already started to talk about it: the possibility for much colder temperatures and lowland snow during the Sunday through Tuesday period.
Let's analyze the possibilities, making use of the most powerful probabilistic forecasting tools at our disposal. We will attempt to avoid the problems experienced during the October 15th storm by highlighting the forecast uncertainties and the use of ensembles.
Snow Forecasting is HARD
Let me begin by noting a key point: it is difficult to get lowland snow around Puget Sound because the Pacific Ocean and Puget Sound are relatively warm (around 50F). It is easy for us to be mild and wet and frequently we are cool and dry. But to be cool and wet is very hard, demanding a rare configuration of pressure and winds. As a result, snow is the most difficult forecast problem in our area.
As I have mentioned frequently, all forecasts should be probabilistic and the most potent tool to create probabilities and to determine uncertainty is through the use of ensemble forecasts--running weather models many times with different initial states and model physics (e.g., moist processes).
So let's look at some ensembles! We can start with the NOAA/NWS GEFs ensemble of 21 members (relatively coarse 35 km grid spacing) for snow over the next week (see below). Dates/times are in UTC/Z, the average of all the ensemble members (the ensemble mean) is shown in dark black, the individual ensemble members are in light gray, and the blue line is single high-resolution (13 km) GFS forecast.
Note that the ensemble mean shows about 1.5 inches by 4 AM Monday (12Z, 5 December) and there is considerable spread (from 6 inches to 0). Most members produce 1-4 inches. The high-resolution run is very different, with no snow until later in the week.
Next, lets examine the snow forecast of the best global ensemble system in the world (the European Center) using the wonderful WeatherBell web site. The European Center (EC) ensemble is larger (51 members) and higher resolution (25 km) than the US version. The graphic below will take some getting used to.
The top panel shows the accumulated snowfall for each ensemble member for Seattle. Note that most members show snow starting on Sunday or Monday (Dec 4th or 5th) and several members show much more snow later in the week (8th or 9th).
The bottom panel shows the ensemble mean (green) and the high resolution snow forecast (deterministic, blue) for Seattle. The ensemble average shows some very light snow on Sunday and Monday (maybe a half inch), but more more later in the week.
What about temperature in Seattle? Here are the ensemble forecasts for high and low temperatures from the EC model. The single high resolution forecast is black, the ensemble mean is green, and the range of the forecasts are shown by the blue "whiskers". The rectangles encompass the 50% of forecasts closest to the mean.
The big story....a major cool down, with daily highs dropping from 46-47F to around 40 F on Monday. Even lower after that. After around 200 h, the uncertainty becomes very, very large.
So based on the ensembles, I feel pretty confident to forecast much cooler temperatures next week. And the ensembles suggest a good chance of getting at least a dusting early next week, with more later.
Finally, with all that I have said about uncertainty, lets look the latest UW high-resolution run, which is driven by the high-resolution NOAA/NWS GFS model.
On Sunday at 1 AM, a very strong Pacific cold front is pushing southward over NW Oregon, with cold temperatures behind.
By 4 AM Monday, cold air (blue/purple/white colors) had spread over our region.
By 1 PM Monday, a low-center had formed just off of the SW WA coast-- this is getting close to a typical snow pattern for Puget Sound.
The subsequent 24 h brings lowland snow, mainly over SW WA and western Oregon. But the uncertainty is very large, so be prepared for the details to change.
from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2fKkh8G
Let's analyze the possibilities, making use of the most powerful probabilistic forecasting tools at our disposal. We will attempt to avoid the problems experienced during the October 15th storm by highlighting the forecast uncertainties and the use of ensembles.
Snow Forecasting is HARD
Let me begin by noting a key point: it is difficult to get lowland snow around Puget Sound because the Pacific Ocean and Puget Sound are relatively warm (around 50F). It is easy for us to be mild and wet and frequently we are cool and dry. But to be cool and wet is very hard, demanding a rare configuration of pressure and winds. As a result, snow is the most difficult forecast problem in our area.
As I have mentioned frequently, all forecasts should be probabilistic and the most potent tool to create probabilities and to determine uncertainty is through the use of ensemble forecasts--running weather models many times with different initial states and model physics (e.g., moist processes).
So let's look at some ensembles! We can start with the NOAA/NWS GEFs ensemble of 21 members (relatively coarse 35 km grid spacing) for snow over the next week (see below). Dates/times are in UTC/Z, the average of all the ensemble members (the ensemble mean) is shown in dark black, the individual ensemble members are in light gray, and the blue line is single high-resolution (13 km) GFS forecast.
Note that the ensemble mean shows about 1.5 inches by 4 AM Monday (12Z, 5 December) and there is considerable spread (from 6 inches to 0). Most members produce 1-4 inches. The high-resolution run is very different, with no snow until later in the week.
Next, lets examine the snow forecast of the best global ensemble system in the world (the European Center) using the wonderful WeatherBell web site. The European Center (EC) ensemble is larger (51 members) and higher resolution (25 km) than the US version. The graphic below will take some getting used to.
The top panel shows the accumulated snowfall for each ensemble member for Seattle. Note that most members show snow starting on Sunday or Monday (Dec 4th or 5th) and several members show much more snow later in the week (8th or 9th).
What about temperature in Seattle? Here are the ensemble forecasts for high and low temperatures from the EC model. The single high resolution forecast is black, the ensemble mean is green, and the range of the forecasts are shown by the blue "whiskers". The rectangles encompass the 50% of forecasts closest to the mean.
The big story....a major cool down, with daily highs dropping from 46-47F to around 40 F on Monday. Even lower after that. After around 200 h, the uncertainty becomes very, very large.
So based on the ensembles, I feel pretty confident to forecast much cooler temperatures next week. And the ensembles suggest a good chance of getting at least a dusting early next week, with more later.
Finally, with all that I have said about uncertainty, lets look the latest UW high-resolution run, which is driven by the high-resolution NOAA/NWS GFS model.
On Sunday at 1 AM, a very strong Pacific cold front is pushing southward over NW Oregon, with cold temperatures behind.
By 4 AM Monday, cold air (blue/purple/white colors) had spread over our region.
The 24h total now forecasts ending 4 AM Sunday indicates LOTS of snow over the WA Cascades (skier will rejoice)
from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2fKkh8G
Tuesday, November 29, 2016
Will Snow Hit the Puget Sound Lowlands in a Few Days?
Some of the media have already started to talk about it: the possibility for much colder temperatures and lowland snow during the Sunday through Tuesday period.
Let's analyze the possibilities, making use of the most powerful probabilistic forecasting tools at our disposal. We will attempt to avoid the problems experienced during the October 15th storm by highlighting the forecast uncertainties and the use of ensembles.
Snow Forecasting is HARD
Let me begin by noting a key point: it is difficult to get lowland snow around Puget Sound because the Pacific Ocean and Puget Sound are relatively warm (around 50F). It is easy for us to be mild and wet and frequently we are cool and dry. But to be cool and wet is very hard, demanding a rare configuration of pressure and winds. As a result, snow is the most difficult forecast problem in our area.
As I have mentioned frequently, all forecasts should be probabilistic and the most potent tool to create probabilities and to determine uncertainty is through the use of ensemble forecasts--running weather models many times with different initial states and model physics (e.g., moist processes).
So let's look at some ensembles! We can start with the NOAA/NWS GEFs ensemble of 21 members (relatively coarse 35 km grid spacing) for snow over the next week (see below). Dates/times are in UTC/Z, the average of all the ensemble members (the ensemble mean) is shown in dark black, the individual ensemble members are in light gray, and the blue line is single high-resolution (13 km) GFS forecast.
Note that the ensemble mean shows about 1.5 inches by 4 AM Monday (12Z, 5 December) and there is considerable spread (from 6 inches to 0). Most members produce 1-4 inches. The high-resolution run is very different, with no snow until later in the week.
Next, lets examine the snow forecast of the best global ensemble system in the world (the European Center) using the wonderful WeatherBell web site. The European Center (EC) ensemble is larger (51 members) and higher resolution (25 km) than the US version. The graphic below will take some getting used to.
The top panel shows the accumulated snowfall for each ensemble member for Seattle. Note that most members show snow starting on Sunday or Monday (Dec 4th or 5th) and several members show much more snow later in the week (8th or 9th).
The bottom panel shows the ensemble mean (green) and the high resolution snow forecast (deterministic, blue) for Seattle. The ensemble average shows some very light snow on Sunday and Monday (maybe a half inch), but more more later in the week.
What about temperature in Seattle? Here are the ensemble forecasts for high and low temperatures from the EC model. The single high resolution forecast is black, the ensemble mean is green, and the range of the forecasts are shown by the blue "whiskers". The rectangles encompass the 50% of forecasts closest to the mean.
The big story....a major cool down, with daily highs dropping from 46-47F to around 40 F on Monday. Even lower after that. After around 200 h, the uncertainty becomes very, very large.
So based on the ensembles, I feel pretty confident to forecast much cooler temperatures next week. And the ensembles suggest a good chance of getting at least a dusting early next week, with more later.
Finally, with all that I have said about uncertainty, lets look the latest UW high-resolution run, which is driven by the high-resolution NOAA/NWS GFS model.
On Sunday at 1 AM, a very strong Pacific cold front is pushing southward over NW Oregon, with cold temperatures behind.
By 4 AM Monday, cold air (blue/purple/white colors) had spread over our region.
By 1 PM Monday, a low-center had formed just off of the SW WA coast-- this is getting close to a typical snow pattern for Puget Sound.
The subsequent 24 h brings lowland snow, mainly over SW WA and western Oregon. But the uncertainty is very large, so be prepared for the details to change.
from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2fKkh8G
Let's analyze the possibilities, making use of the most powerful probabilistic forecasting tools at our disposal. We will attempt to avoid the problems experienced during the October 15th storm by highlighting the forecast uncertainties and the use of ensembles.
Snow Forecasting is HARD
Let me begin by noting a key point: it is difficult to get lowland snow around Puget Sound because the Pacific Ocean and Puget Sound are relatively warm (around 50F). It is easy for us to be mild and wet and frequently we are cool and dry. But to be cool and wet is very hard, demanding a rare configuration of pressure and winds. As a result, snow is the most difficult forecast problem in our area.
As I have mentioned frequently, all forecasts should be probabilistic and the most potent tool to create probabilities and to determine uncertainty is through the use of ensemble forecasts--running weather models many times with different initial states and model physics (e.g., moist processes).
So let's look at some ensembles! We can start with the NOAA/NWS GEFs ensemble of 21 members (relatively coarse 35 km grid spacing) for snow over the next week (see below). Dates/times are in UTC/Z, the average of all the ensemble members (the ensemble mean) is shown in dark black, the individual ensemble members are in light gray, and the blue line is single high-resolution (13 km) GFS forecast.
Note that the ensemble mean shows about 1.5 inches by 4 AM Monday (12Z, 5 December) and there is considerable spread (from 6 inches to 0). Most members produce 1-4 inches. The high-resolution run is very different, with no snow until later in the week.
Next, lets examine the snow forecast of the best global ensemble system in the world (the European Center) using the wonderful WeatherBell web site. The European Center (EC) ensemble is larger (51 members) and higher resolution (25 km) than the US version. The graphic below will take some getting used to.
The top panel shows the accumulated snowfall for each ensemble member for Seattle. Note that most members show snow starting on Sunday or Monday (Dec 4th or 5th) and several members show much more snow later in the week (8th or 9th).
What about temperature in Seattle? Here are the ensemble forecasts for high and low temperatures from the EC model. The single high resolution forecast is black, the ensemble mean is green, and the range of the forecasts are shown by the blue "whiskers". The rectangles encompass the 50% of forecasts closest to the mean.
The big story....a major cool down, with daily highs dropping from 46-47F to around 40 F on Monday. Even lower after that. After around 200 h, the uncertainty becomes very, very large.
So based on the ensembles, I feel pretty confident to forecast much cooler temperatures next week. And the ensembles suggest a good chance of getting at least a dusting early next week, with more later.
Finally, with all that I have said about uncertainty, lets look the latest UW high-resolution run, which is driven by the high-resolution NOAA/NWS GFS model.
On Sunday at 1 AM, a very strong Pacific cold front is pushing southward over NW Oregon, with cold temperatures behind.
By 4 AM Monday, cold air (blue/purple/white colors) had spread over our region.
The 24h total now forecasts ending 4 AM Sunday indicates LOTS of snow over the WA Cascades (skier will rejoice)
from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2fKkh8G
Monday, November 28, 2016
What happens if you hit a gas main while you are digging?
If you are intending to start a digging project in your yard you need to be very careful. You can easily see any hazards that lie above ground but you should remember that there are potential hazards under the ground as well. If you encounter one of these hazards during the project it can be costly and potentially dangerous.
One of the hazards you are most likely to hit is a utility pipe. These are the pipes which carry utilities such as gas and water into your home. If you are planning to dig in your yard it’s a good idea to speak to an expert about utility locating. This is a process which enables you to see where utility pipes are so that you can avoid them when you begin to dig. We are going to take a look at how you can benefit from utility location and what can happen if you do not know where the pipes are and you accidently hit a gas main.
Why is utility location a good idea?
Many people make assumptions about the location of utility pipes around their property; this is not a good idea. The only way to know for certain where utility pipes are located is to get an expert to map them for you.
This information should form an integral part of any planning you do before you start to dig. If you know what underground obstacles you are likely to encounter you can make sure you avoid them. This helps you avoid any unexpected incidents which could be costly in terms of both time and money.
What if you do hit a gas main while you are digging?
If you do not establish the location of utility pipes before you start digging you run the risk of striking them by mistake. This includes the possibility of hitting a gas main. If you are unlucky enough to have this happen to you it’s important that you take the right action. This helps to keep you safe.
The first thing you need to do is get as far away from the gas as possible. Then you need to contact the utility company and let them know there is an emergency as gas is leaking. You should never panic and just try and make the call using your smartphone while you are still in close proximity to the gas main. This can create sparks which could create an explosion if they make contact with the escaped gas. It’s vital that you move away from the leak before you make the call.
Hopefully, we have helped you to see how important it is to have utility location carried out before you start to dig in your yard. It may be tempting to just try and get on with the project but this can cause problems down the line. You could end up having to pay for repair costs, and putting yourself in danger, if you unexpectedly hit a gas main, or other utility pipe of cable.
from Home Design Ideas | Interior Design Ideas And Architcture http://ift.tt/2gE6WAR
What happens if you hit a gas main while you are digging?
If you are intending to start a digging project in your yard you need to be very careful. You can easily see any hazards that lie above ground but you should remember that there are potential hazards under the ground as well. If you encounter one of these hazards during the project it can be costly and potentially dangerous.
One of the hazards you are most likely to hit is a utility pipe. These are the pipes which carry utilities such as gas and water into your home. If you are planning to dig in your yard it’s a good idea to speak to an expert about utility locating. This is a process which enables you to see where utility pipes are so that you can avoid them when you begin to dig. We are going to take a look at how you can benefit from utility location and what can happen if you do not know where the pipes are and you accidently hit a gas main.
Why is utility location a good idea?
Many people make assumptions about the location of utility pipes around their property; this is not a good idea. The only way to know for certain where utility pipes are located is to get an expert to map them for you.
This information should form an integral part of any planning you do before you start to dig. If you know what underground obstacles you are likely to encounter you can make sure you avoid them. This helps you avoid any unexpected incidents which could be costly in terms of both time and money.
What if you do hit a gas main while you are digging?
If you do not establish the location of utility pipes before you start digging you run the risk of striking them by mistake. This includes the possibility of hitting a gas main. If you are unlucky enough to have this happen to you it’s important that you take the right action. This helps to keep you safe.
The first thing you need to do is get as far away from the gas as possible. Then you need to contact the utility company and let them know there is an emergency as gas is leaking. You should never panic and just try and make the call using your smartphone while you are still in close proximity to the gas main. This can create sparks which could create an explosion if they make contact with the escaped gas. It’s vital that you move away from the leak before you make the call.
Hopefully, we have helped you to see how important it is to have utility location carried out before you start to dig in your yard. It may be tempting to just try and get on with the project but this can cause problems down the line. You could end up having to pay for repair costs, and putting yourself in danger, if you unexpectedly hit a gas main, or other utility pipe of cable.
from Home Design Ideas | Interior Design Ideas And Architcture http://ift.tt/2gE6WAR
The best ways to improve the curb appeal of your home
If you want to sell your home you need to give yourself the very best chance of doing so. Obviously, you can enlist the help of professionals to assist with the sale, but you may be surprised at just how much assistance you can get from curb appeal. You should always remember that there may be people passing your property who are in the market for a new home. If your home has good curb appeal they are more likely to show an interest.
The aim of this article is to take a look at why curb appeal can be so important and how it can be improved. Hopefully we will give you the inspiration you need to improve the curb appeal of your property and make it easier to sell.
What is so important about curb appeal?
If you think about it, we all tend to judge a lot of things in life by first appearances. This is a little different when a property purchase is involved as many checks and surveys are usually completed before a sale is finalised. That being said, first impressions are still important. It’s the first look at a property that first attracts a buyer. If your home does not look appealing from the outside this could detract any potential buyers who just happen to be passing by.
Conversely, if you make an effort to improve the external appearance of your home passers-by may just be tempted to stop and take a look. This automatically expands the potential market for your property.
What can you do to improve the curb appeal of your property?
We have explained why improving the curb appeal of your home is important, but what can you do to make it happen? Let’s take a look at a few options you may want to consider.
- Give your property a paint job. If the paintwork of your home looks a little jaded it’s not going to stand out to potential buyers. If you do decide to give your property a coat of paint it’s a good idea to opt for a more neutral colour that can appeal to all tastes.
- Bring out the hanging baskets. You may think that something as simple as a hanging basket does not have that much appeal. The fact is that a few well planted plants or shrubs can be very eye catching.
- Clad the walls of your property. If you want to give your home a new look you may want to give upvc cladding a try. This type of cladding can look really good on your property and it also acts as good insulation. You can certainly use this as a selling point.
All of these options can help you add curb appeal to your home. It’s also worth remembering that simple things, like making sure the front of your home is tidy and that the windows are clean, can go a long way to making your property more appealing.
from Home Design Ideas | Interior Design Ideas And Architcture http://ift.tt/2ft6tE4
3 Reasons Why You Need a Natural Air Home Ventilation System
1.Improve the Quality of the Air You Breathe
As very well informed consumers, we all are very aware that the air we breathe daily is filled with pollutants, allergens, and potentially dangerous toxins. If you are a homeowner and you add pets to this equation you have just added another element of potential allergens to this mix: pet hair and pet dander. While some of this is, unavoidable and do not present immediate threats to clarity of the air in your home there are things that you can do to at least lower the levels of toxins in your immediate home environment. Installing an automated home ventilation systems can literally filter and clean the air that you breathe.
2. Reduced CO2 Levels
We have all read the horror stories of families going to sleep at night and not waking up the next day due to what is referred to as the silent killer, carbon dioxide. With a natural air ventilation system installed in your home you can rest easily knowing that you have a system in place that is monitoring CO2 levels in the air and constantly filtering the air to keep CO2 levels non-toxic. The value that an air ventilation solution can provide you and your family are second to none regarding keeping your loved ones safe and healthy!
3. Full Control and Regulation of System
Many of the natural air home ventilation systems that are available out there offer full control, regulation and customized options for your home natural air ventilation system. There are various inputs that the systems can regulate such as weather elements and of course as mentioned above, CO2 levels. After installation of a natural air ventilation system in your home or business you can manage the system based on your own specific needs and you can set it to work depending on when you are in your home the most. Another option to consider for further home safety is adding smoke ventilation automated solutions to your home or office in the case of a fire. These systems literally provide automation of your windows or valves to open in the event of smoke or fire in your home. Having both systems installed will give you endless amounts of peace of mind knowing that you and your family are breathing the freshest of air and that you are protected in the unfortunate case of a fire in your home or place of business.
from Home Design Ideas | Interior Design Ideas And Architcture http://ift.tt/2ft1vaN
The best ways to improve the curb appeal of your home
If you want to sell your home you need to give yourself the very best chance of doing so. Obviously, you can enlist the help of professionals to assist with the sale, but you may be surprised at just how much assistance you can get from curb appeal. You should always remember that there may be people passing your property who are in the market for a new home. If your home has good curb appeal they are more likely to show an interest.
The aim of this article is to take a look at why curb appeal can be so important and how it can be improved. Hopefully we will give you the inspiration you need to improve the curb appeal of your property and make it easier to sell.
What is so important about curb appeal?
If you think about it, we all tend to judge a lot of things in life by first appearances. This is a little different when a property purchase is involved as many checks and surveys are usually completed before a sale is finalised. That being said, first impressions are still important. It’s the first look at a property that first attracts a buyer. If your home does not look appealing from the outside this could detract any potential buyers who just happen to be passing by.
Conversely, if you make an effort to improve the external appearance of your home passers-by may just be tempted to stop and take a look. This automatically expands the potential market for your property.
What can you do to improve the curb appeal of your property?
We have explained why improving the curb appeal of your home is important, but what can you do to make it happen? Let’s take a look at a few options you may want to consider.
- Give your property a paint job. If the paintwork of your home looks a little jaded it’s not going to stand out to potential buyers. If you do decide to give your property a coat of paint it’s a good idea to opt for a more neutral colour that can appeal to all tastes.
- Bring out the hanging baskets. You may think that something as simple as a hanging basket does not have that much appeal. The fact is that a few well planted plants or shrubs can be very eye catching.
- Clad the walls of your property. If you want to give your home a new look you may want to give upvc cladding a try. This type of cladding can look really good on your property and it also acts as good insulation. You can certainly use this as a selling point.
All of these options can help you add curb appeal to your home. It’s also worth remembering that simple things, like making sure the front of your home is tidy and that the windows are clean, can go a long way to making your property more appealing.
from Home Design Ideas | Interior Design Ideas And Architcture http://ift.tt/2ft6tE4
3 Reasons Why You Need a Natural Air Home Ventilation System
1.Improve the Quality of the Air You Breathe
As very well informed consumers, we all are very aware that the air we breathe daily is filled with pollutants, allergens, and potentially dangerous toxins. If you are a homeowner and you add pets to this equation you have just added another element of potential allergens to this mix: pet hair and pet dander. While some of this is, unavoidable and do not present immediate threats to clarity of the air in your home there are things that you can do to at least lower the levels of toxins in your immediate home environment. Installing an automated home ventilation systems can literally filter and clean the air that you breathe.
2. Reduced CO2 Levels
We have all read the horror stories of families going to sleep at night and not waking up the next day due to what is referred to as the silent killer, carbon dioxide. With a natural air ventilation system installed in your home you can rest easily knowing that you have a system in place that is monitoring CO2 levels in the air and constantly filtering the air to keep CO2 levels non-toxic. The value that an air ventilation solution can provide you and your family are second to none regarding keeping your loved ones safe and healthy!
3. Full Control and Regulation of System
Many of the natural air home ventilation systems that are available out there offer full control, regulation and customized options for your home natural air ventilation system. There are various inputs that the systems can regulate such as weather elements and of course as mentioned above, CO2 levels. After installation of a natural air ventilation system in your home or business you can manage the system based on your own specific needs and you can set it to work depending on when you are in your home the most. Another option to consider for further home safety is adding smoke ventilation automated solutions to your home or office in the case of a fire. These systems literally provide automation of your windows or valves to open in the event of smoke or fire in your home. Having both systems installed will give you endless amounts of peace of mind knowing that you and your family are breathing the freshest of air and that you are protected in the unfortunate case of a fire in your home or place of business.
from Home Design Ideas | Interior Design Ideas And Architcture http://ift.tt/2ft1vaN
Why Does Mount Baker Get So Much Snow?
Mount Baker Ski area, located in the northern Washington Cascades (see map below), is a fabled
location for large amounts of snow. For example, it holds the U.S. record for annual snowfall (1140 inches).
And today, the Mount Baker Ski Area website is claiming that they have more snow than any other ski facility in the entire U.S.! With 83 inches at 5000 ft!
Are these Trumparian claims? Is Mount Baker really that snow bound? And if so, why are they so endowed with the white stuff?
A glance at the snow depth analysis from the NOAA National Hydrological Center shows that the greatest snow depths (darker blues and purples) today are clearly over our part of the country,
A closer view shows heaviest snow around the volcanic peaks, the north Cascades and the Olympics.
The Hurricane Ridge ski area in the Olympics is not open yet, so I think that the Mount Baker ski area has reason to crow that they are tops in the U.S. right now. And the all-time record was pronounced by an official arm of the U.S. government, so I am certainly not in a position to dispute their findings.
So what is it about Mount Baker ski area that gives it so much snow? It is really not that high, with most of the ski runs between 4000 and 5000 ft. Folks in Colorado or the Sierra would laugh at such low elevations.
But Mount Baker and much of the Cascades start with a big advantage: lots of moisture and precipitation. The western slopes and crests of the Northwest mountains are the wettest locations in the U.S. due to the persistent winter storms passing over the region in winter and the great enhancement by the regional terrain (see annual climatological precipitation maps below).
The north Cascades are not as saturated as the western side of the Olympics, but are far enough to the northeast that they escape much of the Olympic rain shadow. Furthermore, the terrain around Mount Baker extends a bit westward than the bulk of the nearby Cascades, providing more exposure to the frequent southerly flow of the western WA basin. Thus, with many incoming storms and moist air off the Pacific moving up the terrain (and thus cooling, saturating, and then precipitating), moisture is no problem. The best supply in the U.S.
And there is not much high terrain upstream of Baker for the typical southwesterly winter flow; there there is less competition for the incoming moisture.
But then there is the issue of temperature...the air must be cold enough to snow. That average freezing level (or melting level) of the air coming into our region (as observed at the Quillayute radiosonde site) is shown by the graphic below (from the wonderful NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website). On average, the freezing level is near 4000 ft. And keep in mind that snow does not melt immediately at freezing...the snow level (where all the snow is melted) is about 1000 ft below the freezing (or melting) level.
So Baker is just high enough to get reliable snow. And, of course, being in the northern part of Cascades makes it cooler than, say, central Oregon.
But there is something else. The amount of snow is enhanced for temperatures just below freezing, because the amount of moisture that air can hold (and thus precipitate) is greatest for warmest temperatures. You can get heavier snowfalls in general for temperatures between 27 and 32F then 15 and 20F. So Baker is at the perfect altitude range for maximum snow.
Lots of moisture, great exposure to incoming flow, orographic/upslope precipitation enhancement, and perfect elevation range for the observed freezing level come to together for an optimum environment for lots of snow.
Finally, let's end this blog by looking at the snowfall and accumulation at the Baker observing site maintained by the Northwest Avalanche Center. The top figure shows 24h snowfall and the bottom, snow depth. About 65 inches at Baker, with the big dumps on Nov 24th and 25th.
More is coming.
from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2gxBvuc
location for large amounts of snow. For example, it holds the U.S. record for annual snowfall (1140 inches).
And today, the Mount Baker Ski Area website is claiming that they have more snow than any other ski facility in the entire U.S.! With 83 inches at 5000 ft!
Are these Trumparian claims? Is Mount Baker really that snow bound? And if so, why are they so endowed with the white stuff?
A glance at the snow depth analysis from the NOAA National Hydrological Center shows that the greatest snow depths (darker blues and purples) today are clearly over our part of the country,
The Hurricane Ridge ski area in the Olympics is not open yet, so I think that the Mount Baker ski area has reason to crow that they are tops in the U.S. right now. And the all-time record was pronounced by an official arm of the U.S. government, so I am certainly not in a position to dispute their findings.
So what is it about Mount Baker ski area that gives it so much snow? It is really not that high, with most of the ski runs between 4000 and 5000 ft. Folks in Colorado or the Sierra would laugh at such low elevations.
But Mount Baker and much of the Cascades start with a big advantage: lots of moisture and precipitation. The western slopes and crests of the Northwest mountains are the wettest locations in the U.S. due to the persistent winter storms passing over the region in winter and the great enhancement by the regional terrain (see annual climatological precipitation maps below).
The north Cascades are not as saturated as the western side of the Olympics, but are far enough to the northeast that they escape much of the Olympic rain shadow. Furthermore, the terrain around Mount Baker extends a bit westward than the bulk of the nearby Cascades, providing more exposure to the frequent southerly flow of the western WA basin. Thus, with many incoming storms and moist air off the Pacific moving up the terrain (and thus cooling, saturating, and then precipitating), moisture is no problem. The best supply in the U.S.
And there is not much high terrain upstream of Baker for the typical southwesterly winter flow; there there is less competition for the incoming moisture.
But then there is the issue of temperature...the air must be cold enough to snow. That average freezing level (or melting level) of the air coming into our region (as observed at the Quillayute radiosonde site) is shown by the graphic below (from the wonderful NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website). On average, the freezing level is near 4000 ft. And keep in mind that snow does not melt immediately at freezing...the snow level (where all the snow is melted) is about 1000 ft below the freezing (or melting) level.
So Baker is just high enough to get reliable snow. And, of course, being in the northern part of Cascades makes it cooler than, say, central Oregon.
But there is something else. The amount of snow is enhanced for temperatures just below freezing, because the amount of moisture that air can hold (and thus precipitate) is greatest for warmest temperatures. You can get heavier snowfalls in general for temperatures between 27 and 32F then 15 and 20F. So Baker is at the perfect altitude range for maximum snow.
Lots of moisture, great exposure to incoming flow, orographic/upslope precipitation enhancement, and perfect elevation range for the observed freezing level come to together for an optimum environment for lots of snow.
Finally, let's end this blog by looking at the snowfall and accumulation at the Baker observing site maintained by the Northwest Avalanche Center. The top figure shows 24h snowfall and the bottom, snow depth. About 65 inches at Baker, with the big dumps on Nov 24th and 25th.
More is coming.
from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2gxBvuc
Why Does Mount Baker Get So Much Snow?
Mount Baker Ski area, located in the northern Washington Cascades (see map below), is a fabled
location for large amounts of snow. For example, it holds the U.S. record for annual snowfall (1140 inches).
And today, the Mount Baker Ski Area website is claiming that they have more snow than any other ski facility in the entire U.S.! With 83 inches at 5000 ft!
Are these Trumparian claims? Is Mount Baker really that snow bound? And if so, why are they so endowed with the white stuff?
A glance at the snow depth analysis from the NOAA National Hydrological Center shows that the greatest snow depths (darker blues and purples) today are clearly over our part of the country,
A closer view shows heaviest snow around the volcanic peaks, the north Cascades and the Olympics.
The Hurricane Ridge ski area in the Olympics is not open yet, so I think that the Mount Baker ski area has reason to crow that they are tops in the U.S. right now. And the all-time record was pronounced by an official arm of the U.S. government, so I am certainly not in a position to dispute their findings.
So what is it about Mount Baker ski area that gives it so much snow? It is really not that high, with most of the ski runs between 4000 and 5000 ft. Folks in Colorado or the Sierra would laugh at such low elevations.
But Mount Baker and much of the Cascades start with a big advantage: lots of moisture and precipitation. The western slopes and crests of the Northwest mountains are the wettest locations in the U.S. due to the persistent winter storms passing over the region in winter and the great enhancement by the regional terrain (see annual climatological precipitation maps below).
The north Cascades are not as saturated as the western side of the Olympics, but are far enough to the northeast that they escape much of the Olympic rain shadow. Furthermore, the terrain around Mount Baker extends a bit westward than the bulk of the nearby Cascades, providing more exposure to the frequent southerly flow of the western WA basin. Thus, with many incoming storms and moist air off the Pacific moving up the terrain (and thus cooling, saturating, and then precipitating), moisture is no problem. The best supply in the U.S.
And there is not much high terrain upstream of Baker for the typical southwesterly winter flow; there there is less competition for the incoming moisture.
But then there is the issue of temperature...the air must be cold enough to snow. That average freezing level (or melting level) of the air coming into our region (as observed at the Quillayute radiosonde site) is shown by the graphic below (from the wonderful NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website). On average, the freezing level is near 4000 ft. And keep in mind that snow does not melt immediately at freezing...the snow level (where all the snow is melted) is about 1000 ft below the freezing (or melting) level.
So Baker is just high enough to get reliable snow. And, of course, being in the northern part of Cascades makes it cooler than, say, central Oregon.
But there is something else. The amount of snow is enhanced for temperatures just below freezing, because the amount of moisture that air can hold (and thus precipitate) is greatest for warmest temperatures. You can get heavier snowfalls in general for temperatures between 27 and 32F then 15 and 20F. So Baker is at the perfect altitude range for maximum snow.
Lots of moisture, great exposure to incoming flow, orographic/upslope precipitation enhancement, and perfect elevation range for the observed freezing level come to together for an optimum environment for lots of snow.
Finally, let's end this blog by looking at the snowfall and accumulation at the Baker observing site maintained by the Northwest Avalanche Center. The top figure shows 24h snowfall and the bottom, snow depth. About 65 inches at Baker, with the big dumps on Nov 24th and 25th.
More is coming.
from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2gxBvuc
location for large amounts of snow. For example, it holds the U.S. record for annual snowfall (1140 inches).
And today, the Mount Baker Ski Area website is claiming that they have more snow than any other ski facility in the entire U.S.! With 83 inches at 5000 ft!
Are these Trumparian claims? Is Mount Baker really that snow bound? And if so, why are they so endowed with the white stuff?
A glance at the snow depth analysis from the NOAA National Hydrological Center shows that the greatest snow depths (darker blues and purples) today are clearly over our part of the country,
The Hurricane Ridge ski area in the Olympics is not open yet, so I think that the Mount Baker ski area has reason to crow that they are tops in the U.S. right now. And the all-time record was pronounced by an official arm of the U.S. government, so I am certainly not in a position to dispute their findings.
So what is it about Mount Baker ski area that gives it so much snow? It is really not that high, with most of the ski runs between 4000 and 5000 ft. Folks in Colorado or the Sierra would laugh at such low elevations.
But Mount Baker and much of the Cascades start with a big advantage: lots of moisture and precipitation. The western slopes and crests of the Northwest mountains are the wettest locations in the U.S. due to the persistent winter storms passing over the region in winter and the great enhancement by the regional terrain (see annual climatological precipitation maps below).
The north Cascades are not as saturated as the western side of the Olympics, but are far enough to the northeast that they escape much of the Olympic rain shadow. Furthermore, the terrain around Mount Baker extends a bit westward than the bulk of the nearby Cascades, providing more exposure to the frequent southerly flow of the western WA basin. Thus, with many incoming storms and moist air off the Pacific moving up the terrain (and thus cooling, saturating, and then precipitating), moisture is no problem. The best supply in the U.S.
And there is not much high terrain upstream of Baker for the typical southwesterly winter flow; there there is less competition for the incoming moisture.
But then there is the issue of temperature...the air must be cold enough to snow. That average freezing level (or melting level) of the air coming into our region (as observed at the Quillayute radiosonde site) is shown by the graphic below (from the wonderful NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website). On average, the freezing level is near 4000 ft. And keep in mind that snow does not melt immediately at freezing...the snow level (where all the snow is melted) is about 1000 ft below the freezing (or melting) level.
So Baker is just high enough to get reliable snow. And, of course, being in the northern part of Cascades makes it cooler than, say, central Oregon.
But there is something else. The amount of snow is enhanced for temperatures just below freezing, because the amount of moisture that air can hold (and thus precipitate) is greatest for warmest temperatures. You can get heavier snowfalls in general for temperatures between 27 and 32F then 15 and 20F. So Baker is at the perfect altitude range for maximum snow.
Lots of moisture, great exposure to incoming flow, orographic/upslope precipitation enhancement, and perfect elevation range for the observed freezing level come to together for an optimum environment for lots of snow.
Finally, let's end this blog by looking at the snowfall and accumulation at the Baker observing site maintained by the Northwest Avalanche Center. The top figure shows 24h snowfall and the bottom, snow depth. About 65 inches at Baker, with the big dumps on Nov 24th and 25th.
More is coming.
from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2gxBvuc
Sunday, November 27, 2016
Saturday, November 26, 2016
Wet and Warm Thanksgiving Weekend After Large Amounts of High-Elevation Snow
The Thanksgiving has been generally wet and warm, but with large amounts of snow at higher elevations. The temperatures at Seattle-Tacoma Airport and Stampede Pass (4000 ft) in the Cascades, tells the story (red and blue lines are average highs and lows this time of the year). Minimum temperatures have been way above normal at both locations. As I have noted in several blogs, this warmth is due to a persistent area of low pressure off our coast, which has brought in warmth and moisture.
The precipitation over the past day (24h ending 11 AM Saturday) has been impressive over the southern Olympics, and north Cascades (2-3 inches in places). You will note a profound rain shadow NE of the Olympics with only .07 inches over northern Whidbey Island (Ebey's Landing is one of my favorite winter walks).
The past seven days has been VERY wet along the coast, with some locations along the slopes of the Olympics and coast coastal mountains getting 10-20 inches)---see left panel below. The right panel shows the difference from normal for the same period--unusually wet coast. Some of the coastal river have hit or approached flood stage.
On Thursday and Friday, it was cool enough (and certainly wet enough) that the higher Cascades (above roughly 4000-4500 ft) got hit with several feet of snow (like three feet at Mount Baker ski area). But it was too warm for the lower ski areas (and particularly Snoqualmie) to get anything on their lower slopes.
And it was made worse last night, when a warm front came through, pushing the snow level up to around 5000 ft. The time-height cross section above Seattle shows this clearly (red is temperature in C, blue wind barbs, ordinate is pressure (850 is about 5000 ft), and time increases to the left (in UTC)
As the day goes on the front will slip eastward with precipitation stopping and the air cooling aloft.
Sunday morning will be a good time for outdoor activities (or to take part in the Seattle marathon) or to get across the passes. Later Sunday, a strong (but cooler) frontal system will move in and will it should be raining over the lowland by dinner time.
from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2ghmudb
The past seven days has been VERY wet along the coast, with some locations along the slopes of the Olympics and coast coastal mountains getting 10-20 inches)---see left panel below. The right panel shows the difference from normal for the same period--unusually wet coast. Some of the coastal river have hit or approached flood stage.
On Thursday and Friday, it was cool enough (and certainly wet enough) that the higher Cascades (above roughly 4000-4500 ft) got hit with several feet of snow (like three feet at Mount Baker ski area). But it was too warm for the lower ski areas (and particularly Snoqualmie) to get anything on their lower slopes.
And it was made worse last night, when a warm front came through, pushing the snow level up to around 5000 ft. The time-height cross section above Seattle shows this clearly (red is temperature in C, blue wind barbs, ordinate is pressure (850 is about 5000 ft), and time increases to the left (in UTC)
A weak frontal zone is now draped over the Northwest coast with light to moderate precipitation (see radar below)
Sunday morning will be a good time for outdoor activities (or to take part in the Seattle marathon) or to get across the passes. Later Sunday, a strong (but cooler) frontal system will move in and will it should be raining over the lowland by dinner time.
from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2ghmudb
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