Monday, October 31, 2016
Sunday, October 30, 2016
Monthly Precipitation Records Have Fallen
Yesterday, Seattle-Tacoma Airport's October rainfall finally exceeded the October monthly record of 8.96 inches, and it is well over 9 inches at this point. A number of other western Washington locations (such as Olympia and Hoquiam) have exceeded their October records, as well as many locations in eastern Washington (see below)
Really, the eastern Washington wetness is quite exceptional. The US Drought Monitor no longer has any part of Washington in drought.
To get an idea of the amazing amount of water we have received, here is a plot of the percentage of normal precipitation observed during the past month. Most of Washington has had above 200% of normal with much of eastern WA with more than 400% of normal. Same thing is true of northern CA and SW Oregon.
With all this precipitation, local rivers are running high, and many very high (>90 percentile of flows).
_______________________
Join the "climate heroes" protest at Puget Sound Energy (PSE) at 11:30 AM Monday in Bellevue (information here)
Puget Sound Energy has joined with other major carbon polluters (like the petroleum industry) to contribute massive amounts of funding to stop I-732, the carbon tax swap initiative (which I support). We suspected this would happen, once it became clear that I-732 might pass. The funds are being used for a massive misinformation campaign (No on 732). So join those who want to see real progress made in fighting against global warming produced by increasing levels of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. Tell PSE either in person or via email/telephone that their working against effective measures to deal with climate change is not in society's or their long-term best interest.
from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2eoRWVq
To get an idea of the amazing amount of water we have received, here is a plot of the percentage of normal precipitation observed during the past month. Most of Washington has had above 200% of normal with much of eastern WA with more than 400% of normal. Same thing is true of northern CA and SW Oregon.
With all this precipitation, local rivers are running high, and many very high (>90 percentile of flows).
And folks, the rain is not over. Here is the prediction 72 hr cumulative precipitation ending 5 PM Wednesday. Vancouver Island is going to get hammered with over 10 inches along its SW slopes, while the Cascades will be moistened by 1-5 inches (which almost seems like a sprinkle compared to what they have gotten).
What is really exceptional is the amount of precipitation that has hit and will hit northern California. Fire risk is way down and the reservoirs have started to refill early. I suspect this winter will be a "drought breaker" for the Golden State. Finally.
Join the "climate heroes" protest at Puget Sound Energy (PSE) at 11:30 AM Monday in Bellevue (information here)
Puget Sound Energy has joined with other major carbon polluters (like the petroleum industry) to contribute massive amounts of funding to stop I-732, the carbon tax swap initiative (which I support). We suspected this would happen, once it became clear that I-732 might pass. The funds are being used for a massive misinformation campaign (No on 732). So join those who want to see real progress made in fighting against global warming produced by increasing levels of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. Tell PSE either in person or via email/telephone that their working against effective measures to deal with climate change is not in society's or their long-term best interest.
from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2eoRWVq
Monthly Precipitation Records Have Fallen
Yesterday, Seattle-Tacoma Airport's October rainfall finally exceeded the October monthly record of 8.96 inches, and it is well over 9 inches at this point. A number of other western Washington locations (such as Olympia and Hoquiam) have exceeded their October records, as well as many locations in eastern Washington (see below)
Really, the eastern Washington wetness is quite exceptional. The US Drought Monitor no longer has any part of Washington in drought.
To get an idea of the amazing amount of water we have received, here is a plot of the percentage of normal precipitation observed during the past month. Most of Washington has had above 200% of normal with much of eastern WA with more than 400% of normal. Same thing is true of northern CA and SW Oregon.
With all this precipitation, local rivers are running high, and many very high (>90 percentile of flows).
_______________________
Join the "climate heroes" protest at Puget Sound Energy (PSE) at 11:30 AM Monday in Bellevue (information here)
Puget Sound Energy has joined with other major carbon polluters (like the petroleum industry) to contribute massive amounts of funding to stop I-732, the carbon tax swap initiative (which I support). We suspected this would happen, once it became clear that I-732 might pass. The funds are being used for a massive misinformation campaign (No on 732). So join those who want to see real progress made in fighting against global warming produced by increasing levels of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. Tell PSE either in person or via email/telephone that their working against effective measures to deal with climate change is not in society's or their long-term best interest.
from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2eoRWVq
To get an idea of the amazing amount of water we have received, here is a plot of the percentage of normal precipitation observed during the past month. Most of Washington has had above 200% of normal with much of eastern WA with more than 400% of normal. Same thing is true of northern CA and SW Oregon.
With all this precipitation, local rivers are running high, and many very high (>90 percentile of flows).
And folks, the rain is not over. Here is the prediction 72 hr cumulative precipitation ending 5 PM Wednesday. Vancouver Island is going to get hammered with over 10 inches along its SW slopes, while the Cascades will be moistened by 1-5 inches (which almost seems like a sprinkle compared to what they have gotten).
What is really exceptional is the amount of precipitation that has hit and will hit northern California. Fire risk is way down and the reservoirs have started to refill early. I suspect this winter will be a "drought breaker" for the Golden State. Finally.
Join the "climate heroes" protest at Puget Sound Energy (PSE) at 11:30 AM Monday in Bellevue (information here)
Puget Sound Energy has joined with other major carbon polluters (like the petroleum industry) to contribute massive amounts of funding to stop I-732, the carbon tax swap initiative (which I support). We suspected this would happen, once it became clear that I-732 might pass. The funds are being used for a massive misinformation campaign (No on 732). So join those who want to see real progress made in fighting against global warming produced by increasing levels of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. Tell PSE either in person or via email/telephone that their working against effective measures to deal with climate change is not in society's or their long-term best interest.
from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2eoRWVq
Saturday, October 29, 2016
Friday, October 28, 2016
The Snow Outlook for this Winter in the Northwest
Many of you have asked about the snow outlook for this winter in the Cascades.
First, how much snow is in the mountains right now? Below left is the total snow water equivalent (SWE) of the snow pack we have today, and to the right is what was on the ground last year. There is already significant snow in the north Cascades and the mountains of southern BC. Last year, practically nothing.
Here is a picture today (Oct 28th) from Whistler in BC. Looks promising to me.
So what about the coming winter? The only tool we have that has any real skill (and even that is not perfect), is the correlation between El Nino/La Nina and the snowpack over our region. El Nino years are associated with warm sea surface temperatures over the central/eastern tropical Pacific, and La Nina years, colder than normal
La Nina years, and particularly strong ones, bring healthy mountain snowpacks.
El Nino years, poor ones.
In between or neutral years, average snowpack.
This correlation is useful but imperfect. For example, last winter we started with a strong El Nino and the snowpack turned out to be near normal.
Based on sea surface temperature (SST) measurements over the tropical Pacific, we are now in a weak La Nina situation. The figure below shows the SST anomaly (difference from normal) for the critical Nino 3.4 region (see map beneath). Blue is colder than normal. Neutral years have small SST anomalies (within .5C of normal). Weak La Nina years are colder than normal by .5 to 1 C. We now are in a weak La Nina situation.
According to the official Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and Columbia IRI probabilistic forecast, we will stay in La Nina for several more months (blue color) before we slide into neutral (or La Nada) conditions later in the winter.
And according to a collection of La Nina/El Nino forecasting models, we will stay with a weak/marginal La Nina for the winter.
Strong La Nina conditions tend to bring colder/marginally wetter conditions to the Northwest, with more snow than normal in the mountains. Weak La Nina years like this one typically bring near normal snowpack in the Cascades.
Now there is something else we should consider, the phenomena that brings terror to all skiers: the BLOB, which is the occurrence of warm water over the Northeast Pacific. The BLOB is not good for NW snow. The latest SST analysis shows a weakening of the BLOB with over the central NE Pacific (blue colors).
And the current large scale circulation (big trough over the eastern Pacific) is not good for Mr. BLOB. So we are in better shape BLOB-wise compared to last year.
Bottom line: Our best estimate is for a normal snow year in the Cascades.
And to get my ski friends excited, here is the 72 hr snow total ending 5 PM Wednesday. Several feet in the Coast Mountain of BC. and a half foot in the north Cascades. The folks at Whistler, must be, well whistling.
_________________________
I 732 and Skiing.
High-resolution climate simulations show emphatically that rising temperatures forced by increasing CO2 levels will decimate Northwest mountain snowpacks. There is substantial confidence in this projection.
So if you care about skiing, or water resources in the Northwest, or our local environment, please vote for I-732, the carbon tax swap.
This has to be one of the most progressive, wise initiatives in the history of WA state. Supported by both Democrats and Republicans, it takes carbon and GIVES ALL THE MONEY BACK to WA State citizens and businesses. Economists consider carbon taxes the most effective way to get CO2 under control and the giving the money back (by reducing the sales tax by 1 % and more) helps repair the crazy, regressive tax system in the State. Solomon could not have done better.
There is a lot of false information being spread about I-732, with some claiming that it is not revenue neutral. This can easily be disproved.
The big carbon polluters are pushing a lot of bad information and lies about the impacts of I-732. Please go to the I-732 web site to learn the truth.
The entire nation is watching us. Please join me, and much of the local climate scientist community, in supporting this extraordinarily positive measure.
from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2dQnLug
First, how much snow is in the mountains right now? Below left is the total snow water equivalent (SWE) of the snow pack we have today, and to the right is what was on the ground last year. There is already significant snow in the north Cascades and the mountains of southern BC. Last year, practically nothing.
Here is a picture today (Oct 28th) from Whistler in BC. Looks promising to me.
So what about the coming winter? The only tool we have that has any real skill (and even that is not perfect), is the correlation between El Nino/La Nina and the snowpack over our region. El Nino years are associated with warm sea surface temperatures over the central/eastern tropical Pacific, and La Nina years, colder than normal
La Nina years, and particularly strong ones, bring healthy mountain snowpacks.
El Nino years, poor ones.
In between or neutral years, average snowpack.
This correlation is useful but imperfect. For example, last winter we started with a strong El Nino and the snowpack turned out to be near normal.
Based on sea surface temperature (SST) measurements over the tropical Pacific, we are now in a weak La Nina situation. The figure below shows the SST anomaly (difference from normal) for the critical Nino 3.4 region (see map beneath). Blue is colder than normal. Neutral years have small SST anomalies (within .5C of normal). Weak La Nina years are colder than normal by .5 to 1 C. We now are in a weak La Nina situation.
According to the official Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and Columbia IRI probabilistic forecast, we will stay in La Nina for several more months (blue color) before we slide into neutral (or La Nada) conditions later in the winter.
And according to a collection of La Nina/El Nino forecasting models, we will stay with a weak/marginal La Nina for the winter.
Strong La Nina conditions tend to bring colder/marginally wetter conditions to the Northwest, with more snow than normal in the mountains. Weak La Nina years like this one typically bring near normal snowpack in the Cascades.
Now there is something else we should consider, the phenomena that brings terror to all skiers: the BLOB, which is the occurrence of warm water over the Northeast Pacific. The BLOB is not good for NW snow. The latest SST analysis shows a weakening of the BLOB with over the central NE Pacific (blue colors).
Bottom line: Our best estimate is for a normal snow year in the Cascades.
And to get my ski friends excited, here is the 72 hr snow total ending 5 PM Wednesday. Several feet in the Coast Mountain of BC. and a half foot in the north Cascades. The folks at Whistler, must be, well whistling.
I 732 and Skiing.
High-resolution climate simulations show emphatically that rising temperatures forced by increasing CO2 levels will decimate Northwest mountain snowpacks. There is substantial confidence in this projection.
So if you care about skiing, or water resources in the Northwest, or our local environment, please vote for I-732, the carbon tax swap.
This has to be one of the most progressive, wise initiatives in the history of WA state. Supported by both Democrats and Republicans, it takes carbon and GIVES ALL THE MONEY BACK to WA State citizens and businesses. Economists consider carbon taxes the most effective way to get CO2 under control and the giving the money back (by reducing the sales tax by 1 % and more) helps repair the crazy, regressive tax system in the State. Solomon could not have done better.
There is a lot of false information being spread about I-732, with some claiming that it is not revenue neutral. This can easily be disproved.
The big carbon polluters are pushing a lot of bad information and lies about the impacts of I-732. Please go to the I-732 web site to learn the truth.
The entire nation is watching us. Please join me, and much of the local climate scientist community, in supporting this extraordinarily positive measure.
from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2dQnLug
The Snow Outlook for this Winter in the Northwest
Many of you have asked about the snow outlook for this winter in the Cascades.
First, how much snow is in the mountains right now? Below left is the total snow water equivalent (SWE) of the snow pack we have today, and to the right is what was on the ground last year. There is already significant snow in the north Cascades and the mountains of southern BC. Last year, practically nothing.
Here is a picture today (Oct 28th) from Whistler in BC. Looks promising to me.
So what about the coming winter? The only tool we have that has any real skill (and even that is not perfect), is the correlation between El Nino/La Nina and the snowpack over our region. El Nino years are associated with warm sea surface temperatures over the central/eastern tropical Pacific, and La Nina years, colder than normal
La Nina years, and particularly strong ones, bring healthy mountain snowpacks.
El Nino years, poor ones.
In between or neutral years, average snowpack.
This correlation is useful but imperfect. For example, last winter we started with a strong El Nino and the snowpack turned out to be near normal.
Based on sea surface temperature (SST) measurements over the tropical Pacific, we are now in a weak La Nina situation. The figure below shows the SST anomaly (difference from normal) for the critical Nino 3.4 region (see map beneath). Blue is colder than normal. Neutral years have small SST anomalies (within .5C of normal). Weak La Nina years are colder than normal by .5 to 1 C. We now are in a weak La Nina situation.
According to the official Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and Columbia IRI probabilistic forecast, we will stay in La Nina for several more months (blue color) before we slide into neutral (or La Nada) conditions later in the winter.
And according to a collection of La Nina/El Nino forecasting models, we will stay with a weak/marginal La Nina for the winter.
Strong La Nina conditions tend to bring colder/marginally wetter conditions to the Northwest, with more snow than normal in the mountains. Weak La Nina years like this one typically bring near normal snowpack in the Cascades.
Now there is something else we should consider, the phenomena that brings terror to all skiers: the BLOB, which is the occurrence of warm water over the Northeast Pacific. The BLOB is not good for NW snow. The latest SST analysis shows a weakening of the BLOB with over the central NE Pacific (blue colors).
And the current large scale circulation (big trough over the eastern Pacific) is not good for Mr. BLOB. So we are in better shape BLOB-wise compared to last year.
Bottom line: Our best estimate is for a normal snow year in the Cascades.
And to get my ski friends excited, here is the 72 hr snow total ending 5 PM Wednesday. Several feet in the Coast Mountain of BC. and a half foot in the north Cascades. The folks at Whistler, must be, well whistling.
_________________________
I 732 and Skiing.
High-resolution climate simulations show emphatically that rising temperatures forced by increasing CO2 levels will decimate Northwest mountain snowpacks. There is substantial confidence in this projection.
So if you care about skiing, or water resources in the Northwest, or our local environment, please vote for I-732, the carbon tax swap.
This has to be one of the most progressive, wise initiatives in the history of WA state. Supported by both Democrats and Republicans, it takes carbon and GIVES ALL THE MONEY BACK to WA State citizens and businesses. Economists consider carbon taxes the most effective way to get CO2 under control and the giving the money back (by reducing the sales tax by 1 % and more) helps repair the crazy, regressive tax system in the State. Solomon could not have done better.
There is a lot of false information being spread about I-732, with some claiming that it is not revenue neutral. This can easily be disproved.
The big carbon polluters are pushing a lot of bad information and lies about the impacts of I-732. Please go to the I-732 web site to learn the truth.
The entire nation is watching us. Please join me, and much of the local climate scientist community, in supporting this extraordinarily positive measure.
from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2dQnLug
First, how much snow is in the mountains right now? Below left is the total snow water equivalent (SWE) of the snow pack we have today, and to the right is what was on the ground last year. There is already significant snow in the north Cascades and the mountains of southern BC. Last year, practically nothing.
Here is a picture today (Oct 28th) from Whistler in BC. Looks promising to me.
So what about the coming winter? The only tool we have that has any real skill (and even that is not perfect), is the correlation between El Nino/La Nina and the snowpack over our region. El Nino years are associated with warm sea surface temperatures over the central/eastern tropical Pacific, and La Nina years, colder than normal
La Nina years, and particularly strong ones, bring healthy mountain snowpacks.
El Nino years, poor ones.
In between or neutral years, average snowpack.
This correlation is useful but imperfect. For example, last winter we started with a strong El Nino and the snowpack turned out to be near normal.
Based on sea surface temperature (SST) measurements over the tropical Pacific, we are now in a weak La Nina situation. The figure below shows the SST anomaly (difference from normal) for the critical Nino 3.4 region (see map beneath). Blue is colder than normal. Neutral years have small SST anomalies (within .5C of normal). Weak La Nina years are colder than normal by .5 to 1 C. We now are in a weak La Nina situation.
According to the official Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and Columbia IRI probabilistic forecast, we will stay in La Nina for several more months (blue color) before we slide into neutral (or La Nada) conditions later in the winter.
And according to a collection of La Nina/El Nino forecasting models, we will stay with a weak/marginal La Nina for the winter.
Strong La Nina conditions tend to bring colder/marginally wetter conditions to the Northwest, with more snow than normal in the mountains. Weak La Nina years like this one typically bring near normal snowpack in the Cascades.
Now there is something else we should consider, the phenomena that brings terror to all skiers: the BLOB, which is the occurrence of warm water over the Northeast Pacific. The BLOB is not good for NW snow. The latest SST analysis shows a weakening of the BLOB with over the central NE Pacific (blue colors).
Bottom line: Our best estimate is for a normal snow year in the Cascades.
And to get my ski friends excited, here is the 72 hr snow total ending 5 PM Wednesday. Several feet in the Coast Mountain of BC. and a half foot in the north Cascades. The folks at Whistler, must be, well whistling.
I 732 and Skiing.
High-resolution climate simulations show emphatically that rising temperatures forced by increasing CO2 levels will decimate Northwest mountain snowpacks. There is substantial confidence in this projection.
So if you care about skiing, or water resources in the Northwest, or our local environment, please vote for I-732, the carbon tax swap.
This has to be one of the most progressive, wise initiatives in the history of WA state. Supported by both Democrats and Republicans, it takes carbon and GIVES ALL THE MONEY BACK to WA State citizens and businesses. Economists consider carbon taxes the most effective way to get CO2 under control and the giving the money back (by reducing the sales tax by 1 % and more) helps repair the crazy, regressive tax system in the State. Solomon could not have done better.
There is a lot of false information being spread about I-732, with some claiming that it is not revenue neutral. This can easily be disproved.
The big carbon polluters are pushing a lot of bad information and lies about the impacts of I-732. Please go to the I-732 web site to learn the truth.
The entire nation is watching us. Please join me, and much of the local climate scientist community, in supporting this extraordinarily positive measure.
from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2dQnLug
Thursday, October 27, 2016
Burglar-Proofing Your Home from the Outside
Home security can often be an element that is overlooked and mainly considered for the inside of the home. Whilst ensuring your home is safe and secure on the inside is really important, it’s just as important to ensure the safety is carried through to the garden, as this can often be a starting point for any burglars targeting your home. Making sure both your interiors and exteriors are safe and secure will enable you to rest assured that your home is as burglar-proof as possible.
Install Sensor Lighting
One of the most obvious yet surprisingly forgotten features to any garden security is motion lighting. Motion or sensor lighting is ideal for adding extra security to your garden, especially through those wintery months. The lighting will help a great deal when used in areas that may have extra foliage or built up hedges. If you look into your garden and cannot see a certain area, this is an indicator to you that you may need to add some motion lighting to ensure that if needed, you can see exactly what is going on in your garden at all times. When the lights are detected, you can set them to stay on for 2 to 30 seconds, dependant on where they are and how practical that is for you. If the motion is no longer picked up then the light will automatically switch off, however, if there is something there and it does not leave the area, the lights will stay on and you’ll be able to see exactly what has set the sensor off. As a result of this, motion lighting works as a very, very good deterrent, as potential burglars will become spooked and leave the area immediately.
Add Fences or a Wall
Whilst fences are ideal for privacy within your garden, they also work very well as keeping unwanted people or animals out of your garden. By surrounding your garden with strong fencing or a built up wall, you can create a difficult obstacle for the potential burglars which will hopefully prevent them from being able to enter your garden. The fencing needs to be strong, however, as that will prevent anyone from being able to break it down in order to gain access to your garden. When it comes to the top of your fencing, you’re best to go with a design that causes problems for anyone who tries to climb it. Picket fencing or fencing with a pointy or sharp top is ideal, as this is really difficult to climb and would be even more of an issue when trying to climb in the dark!
If you choose to put a gate in your garden leading from the front to the back, you should invest in a locking mechanism. Ensuring you can lock your gate is important as otherwise the burglar won’t need to worry about climbing the fence as they’ll have instant access through your garden gate. You can find all kinds of really effective locking mechanisms, from the traditional padlock to a simple latch that cannot be opened unless you’re inside the garden. You can then invest in locks with a key, which may cost a little extra but will really ensure nobody can enter your garden when you don’t want them too!
Protect Your Belongings
The garden can be a great place for social gatherings and get-togethers, and often you find yourself purchasing some stylish outdoor seating, tables and even features such as fire pits or fancy umbrellas. These belongings are all great and so beneficial to have, however they can also be seen as an invitation to the garden by a burglar, as they may see enough money in your garden furnishings to not even need to enter your house! The last thing you want is to attract the attention of any burglars by having fancy items left outdoors overnight, so making sure expensive items are stored away in the garage or storage areas overnight or when not in use is essential. Another key thing to consider is where you position your outdoor items. Items such as ladders, seats, steps or even bins should never be stored next to your fencing. This can, without noticing, create a step or easy access point for burglars as they climb your fence, so don’t make things easier for them!
Make them Aware
Burglars often assess somewhere before they choose to target. This is because they’ll need to know they’re not walking into a garden or home that is going to illuminate and alarm, exposing who they are. Investing in an alarm system is really important, as not only will it let you know when something isn’t quite right, but it will also show any potential burglars that you have the system fitted and they have no chance of getting into your home without sounding the alarm!
Don’t Forget to Check
It’s usually the same routine for each homeowner, checking all doors and windows to ensure that they are locked or closed. It can often be an easy thing to overlook however, especially if your home has a few residents and each are coming and going at different times. Making sure your door locks, sliding door locks, window locks and even back door locks are in full working order and locked will really help make sure nobody can enter your home without permission. Closing curtains is another helpful thing to do, as you’re preventing anyone from the outside looking in!
from Home Design Ideas | Interior Design Ideas And Architcture http://ift.tt/2ePoJVl
Burglar-Proofing Your Home from the Outside
Home security can often be an element that is overlooked and mainly considered for the inside of the home. Whilst ensuring your home is safe and secure on the inside is really important, it’s just as important to ensure the safety is carried through to the garden, as this can often be a starting point for any burglars targeting your home. Making sure both your interiors and exteriors are safe and secure will enable you to rest assured that your home is as burglar-proof as possible.
Install Sensor Lighting
One of the most obvious yet surprisingly forgotten features to any garden security is motion lighting. Motion or sensor lighting is ideal for adding extra security to your garden, especially through those wintery months. The lighting will help a great deal when used in areas that may have extra foliage or built up hedges. If you look into your garden and cannot see a certain area, this is an indicator to you that you may need to add some motion lighting to ensure that if needed, you can see exactly what is going on in your garden at all times. When the lights are detected, you can set them to stay on for 2 to 30 seconds, dependant on where they are and how practical that is for you. If the motion is no longer picked up then the light will automatically switch off, however, if there is something there and it does not leave the area, the lights will stay on and you’ll be able to see exactly what has set the sensor off. As a result of this, motion lighting works as a very, very good deterrent, as potential burglars will become spooked and leave the area immediately.
Add Fences or a Wall
Whilst fences are ideal for privacy within your garden, they also work very well as keeping unwanted people or animals out of your garden. By surrounding your garden with strong fencing or a built up wall, you can create a difficult obstacle for the potential burglars which will hopefully prevent them from being able to enter your garden. The fencing needs to be strong, however, as that will prevent anyone from being able to break it down in order to gain access to your garden. When it comes to the top of your fencing, you’re best to go with a design that causes problems for anyone who tries to climb it. Picket fencing or fencing with a pointy or sharp top is ideal, as this is really difficult to climb and would be even more of an issue when trying to climb in the dark!
If you choose to put a gate in your garden leading from the front to the back, you should invest in a locking mechanism. Ensuring you can lock your gate is important as otherwise the burglar won’t need to worry about climbing the fence as they’ll have instant access through your garden gate. You can find all kinds of really effective locking mechanisms, from the traditional padlock to a simple latch that cannot be opened unless you’re inside the garden. You can then invest in locks with a key, which may cost a little extra but will really ensure nobody can enter your garden when you don’t want them too!
Protect Your Belongings
The garden can be a great place for social gatherings and get-togethers, and often you find yourself purchasing some stylish outdoor seating, tables and even features such as fire pits or fancy umbrellas. These belongings are all great and so beneficial to have, however they can also be seen as an invitation to the garden by a burglar, as they may see enough money in your garden furnishings to not even need to enter your house! The last thing you want is to attract the attention of any burglars by having fancy items left outdoors overnight, so making sure expensive items are stored away in the garage or storage areas overnight or when not in use is essential. Another key thing to consider is where you position your outdoor items. Items such as ladders, seats, steps or even bins should never be stored next to your fencing. This can, without noticing, create a step or easy access point for burglars as they climb your fence, so don’t make things easier for them!
Make them Aware
Burglars often assess somewhere before they choose to target. This is because they’ll need to know they’re not walking into a garden or home that is going to illuminate and alarm, exposing who they are. Investing in an alarm system is really important, as not only will it let you know when something isn’t quite right, but it will also show any potential burglars that you have the system fitted and they have no chance of getting into your home without sounding the alarm!
Don’t Forget to Check
It’s usually the same routine for each homeowner, checking all doors and windows to ensure that they are locked or closed. It can often be an easy thing to overlook however, especially if your home has a few residents and each are coming and going at different times. Making sure your door locks, sliding door locks, window locks and even back door locks are in full working order and locked will really help make sure nobody can enter your home without permission. Closing curtains is another helpful thing to do, as you’re preventing anyone from the outside looking in!
from Home Design Ideas | Interior Design Ideas And Architcture http://ift.tt/2ePoJVl
Wednesday, October 26, 2016
The Wettest October on Record, Global Warming, and I-732
After a very wet day on Wednesday, it is now clear that Seattle will exceed the all-time record for precipitation in October: 8.96 inches that fell in October 2003
And as I will explain below, it provides a dramatic reminder why voters in Washington State should support Initiative I-732, which will reduce carbon emissions in our state and could lead to a nationwide movement for effective restriction of greenhouse gas production.
The numbers
As of 10 PM on Wednesday, the rain gauge at Seattle Tacoma Airport had 8.84 inches, .12 inches less than the record. With rain falling overnight and several more storms coming this week, there will not be any trouble breaking the October record. We will be breaking a major record.
What makes this month so remarkable is that most of the precipitation fell in a very soggy two-week period that began around October 13th (see plot of observed precipitation--blue line-- below)
Global Warming and October Precipitation
We can not conclusively point to global warming as the "cause" of this month's substantial rainfall. It could be the result of the random, chaotic nature of the atmosphere. But I can tell you that climate models driven with increased greenhouse gases show a dramatically increased amount of early fall precipitation, particularly during October. In fact, I have been actively researching this issue with UW scientist Michael Warner.
Below is a figure from a paper we just submitted to a peer-reviewed journal. It is a bit complicated so let me explain. Our goal was to see how the frequency of extreme precipitation days will increase under global warming in our region during the 21st century. The blue symbols represent the numbers of days in each month that a measure of extreme precipitation potential (called the water vapor flux) exceeds the 99% value for the current period using a collection of models.. The median of the various models is shown by horizontal line in the middle of the rectangle. The red figures show that same thing at the end of this century, assuming we keep up our current fossil fuel burning ways.
A very large increase, particularly in the fall. October's increase is the largest of all.
A number of papers in the literature show consistent results: under global warming we expect the most extreme precipitation events to increase (because warm air holds more water vapor than cold air) and that the greatest increases will be in early fall.
So although we can not definitively point a finger at global warming as the causal factor this month, by the second half of the century we can expect global warming to make such wet Octobers much more frequent. We are getting a taste of our future if greenhouse gases continue to rise.
I-732 is Critically Needed to Deal with the Global Warming Threat
There is no time to wait on dealing with the increasing levels of CO2 in the atmosphere. We need a powerful tool to reduce emissions in our State, one that will be so attractive that it can spread to rest of the country.
Initiative 732 is such a powerful tool, one supported by a wide range of groups, including over 50 climate scientists at the UW, the Audubon Society, the Stranger, The Weekly, The Olympian many Democratic organizations, Republican and Democratic state legislators, major political figures of our region (e.g., ex-Congressman Jim McDermott), the Seattle Green Party, and many, many more.
Initiative 732, uses the most effective approach for reducing emissions, the free market system, by taxing carbon emissions. Economists of both political persuasiona agree that taxing carbon is the most effective approach for reducing carbon emissions, and this method has been tried with great success in British Columbia, and several nations around the world.
Initiative 732 is revenue neutral, returning all the proceeds back to citizens. This has some wonderful consequences. First, the money is used to reduce the sales tax and provide a low-income household rebate. The result is that Initiative 732 works to make our take system less regressive, which is good since WA State has the most regressive taxation in the nation. Second, by not increasing the size of government, 732 is attractive to folks of all political opinions. It can be bipartisan.
Effective reduction of greenhouse gas emission can't be a Democrat thing or a Republican thing--only by devising an approach that both sides of the aisle can support can we develop a policy that can pass in WA State and have a good chance of spreading to the rest of the nation.
I-732 has a real chance. Current polls (Elway) show that it is about 8 points ahead, but there are still lots of undecided voters. Some folks have been spreading false information about whether it is revenue neutral (it is, as close as humanly possible). Others want to harvest the revenue and use them for their pet projects and help their particular groups. Not only is government ineffective in picking winning approaches (Pronto bicycle anyone?), but a revenue positive approach would make the State's tax laws MORE regressive, hurting low-incoming and minority communities.
Effective in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, bipartisan, makes the tax system fairer, highly progressive, and free market. What is not to like?
The record breaking precipitation this month is a warning. Will we be wise enough to take action before greenhouse warming profoundly changes our climate? If you are a WA State voter, it is in your hands.
from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2exOif4
And as I will explain below, it provides a dramatic reminder why voters in Washington State should support Initiative I-732, which will reduce carbon emissions in our state and could lead to a nationwide movement for effective restriction of greenhouse gas production.
Picture Courtesy of the Seattle Times
The numbers
As of 10 PM on Wednesday, the rain gauge at Seattle Tacoma Airport had 8.84 inches, .12 inches less than the record. With rain falling overnight and several more storms coming this week, there will not be any trouble breaking the October record. We will be breaking a major record.
What makes this month so remarkable is that most of the precipitation fell in a very soggy two-week period that began around October 13th (see plot of observed precipitation--blue line-- below)
We can not conclusively point to global warming as the "cause" of this month's substantial rainfall. It could be the result of the random, chaotic nature of the atmosphere. But I can tell you that climate models driven with increased greenhouse gases show a dramatically increased amount of early fall precipitation, particularly during October. In fact, I have been actively researching this issue with UW scientist Michael Warner.
Seattle's reservoir levels have zoomed up with all the rain (red line),
with current values similar to what are usually observed in December.
Below is a figure from a paper we just submitted to a peer-reviewed journal. It is a bit complicated so let me explain. Our goal was to see how the frequency of extreme precipitation days will increase under global warming in our region during the 21st century. The blue symbols represent the numbers of days in each month that a measure of extreme precipitation potential (called the water vapor flux) exceeds the 99% value for the current period using a collection of models.. The median of the various models is shown by horizontal line in the middle of the rectangle. The red figures show that same thing at the end of this century, assuming we keep up our current fossil fuel burning ways.
A very large increase, particularly in the fall. October's increase is the largest of all.
So although we can not definitively point a finger at global warming as the causal factor this month, by the second half of the century we can expect global warming to make such wet Octobers much more frequent. We are getting a taste of our future if greenhouse gases continue to rise.
I-732 is Critically Needed to Deal with the Global Warming Threat
There is no time to wait on dealing with the increasing levels of CO2 in the atmosphere. We need a powerful tool to reduce emissions in our State, one that will be so attractive that it can spread to rest of the country.
Initiative 732 is such a powerful tool, one supported by a wide range of groups, including over 50 climate scientists at the UW, the Audubon Society, the Stranger, The Weekly, The Olympian many Democratic organizations, Republican and Democratic state legislators, major political figures of our region (e.g., ex-Congressman Jim McDermott), the Seattle Green Party, and many, many more.
Initiative 732, uses the most effective approach for reducing emissions, the free market system, by taxing carbon emissions. Economists of both political persuasiona agree that taxing carbon is the most effective approach for reducing carbon emissions, and this method has been tried with great success in British Columbia, and several nations around the world.
Initiative 732 is revenue neutral, returning all the proceeds back to citizens. This has some wonderful consequences. First, the money is used to reduce the sales tax and provide a low-income household rebate. The result is that Initiative 732 works to make our take system less regressive, which is good since WA State has the most regressive taxation in the nation. Second, by not increasing the size of government, 732 is attractive to folks of all political opinions. It can be bipartisan.
Effective reduction of greenhouse gas emission can't be a Democrat thing or a Republican thing--only by devising an approach that both sides of the aisle can support can we develop a policy that can pass in WA State and have a good chance of spreading to the rest of the nation.
I-732 has a real chance. Current polls (Elway) show that it is about 8 points ahead, but there are still lots of undecided voters. Some folks have been spreading false information about whether it is revenue neutral (it is, as close as humanly possible). Others want to harvest the revenue and use them for their pet projects and help their particular groups. Not only is government ineffective in picking winning approaches (Pronto bicycle anyone?), but a revenue positive approach would make the State's tax laws MORE regressive, hurting low-incoming and minority communities.
Effective in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, bipartisan, makes the tax system fairer, highly progressive, and free market. What is not to like?
The record breaking precipitation this month is a warning. Will we be wise enough to take action before greenhouse warming profoundly changes our climate? If you are a WA State voter, it is in your hands.
from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2exOif4
The Wettest October on Record, Global Warming, and I-732
After a very wet day on Wednesday, it is now clear that Seattle will exceed the all-time record for precipitation in October: 8.96 inches that fell in October 2003
And as I will explain below, it provides a dramatic reminder why voters in Washington State should support Initiative I-732, which will reduce carbon emissions in our state and could lead to a nationwide movement for effective restriction of greenhouse gas production.
The numbers
As of 10 PM on Wednesday, the rain gauge at Seattle Tacoma Airport had 8.84 inches, .12 inches less than the record. With rain falling overnight and several more storms coming this week, there will not be any trouble breaking the October record. We will be breaking a major record.
What makes this month so remarkable is that most of the precipitation fell in a very soggy two-week period that began around October 13th (see plot of observed precipitation--blue line-- below)
Global Warming and October Precipitation
We can not conclusively point to global warming as the "cause" of this month's substantial rainfall. It could be the result of the random, chaotic nature of the atmosphere. But I can tell you that climate models driven with increased greenhouse gases show a dramatically increased amount of early fall precipitation, particularly during October. In fact, I have been actively researching this issue with UW scientist Michael Warner.
Below is a figure from a paper we just submitted to a peer-reviewed journal. It is a bit complicated so let me explain. Our goal was to see how the frequency of extreme precipitation days will increase under global warming in our region during the 21st century. The blue symbols represent the numbers of days in each month that a measure of extreme precipitation potential (called the water vapor flux) exceeds the 99% value for the current period using a collection of models.. The median of the various models is shown by horizontal line in the middle of the rectangle. The red figures show that same thing at the end of this century, assuming we keep up our current fossil fuel burning ways.
A very large increase, particularly in the fall. October's increase is the largest of all.
A number of papers in the literature show consistent results: under global warming we expect the most extreme precipitation events to increase (because warm air holds more water vapor than cold air) and that the greatest increases will be in early fall.
So although we can not definitively point a finger at global warming as the causal factor this month, by the second half of the century we can expect global warming to make such wet Octobers much more frequent. We are getting a taste of our future if greenhouse gases continue to rise.
I-732 is Critically Needed to Deal with the Global Warming Threat
There is no time to wait on dealing with the increasing levels of CO2 in the atmosphere. We need a powerful tool to reduce emissions in our State, one that will be so attractive that it can spread to rest of the country.
Initiative 732 is such a powerful tool, one supported by a wide range of groups, including over 50 climate scientists at the UW, the Audubon Society, the Stranger, The Weekly, The Olympian many Democratic organizations, Republican and Democratic state legislators, major political figures of our region (e.g., ex-Congressman Jim McDermott), the Seattle Green Party, and many, many more.
Initiative 732, uses the most effective approach for reducing emissions, the free market system, by taxing carbon emissions. Economists of both political persuasiona agree that taxing carbon is the most effective approach for reducing carbon emissions, and this method has been tried with great success in British Columbia, and several nations around the world.
Initiative 732 is revenue neutral, returning all the proceeds back to citizens. This has some wonderful consequences. First, the money is used to reduce the sales tax and provide a low-income household rebate. The result is that Initiative 732 works to make our take system less regressive, which is good since WA State has the most regressive taxation in the nation. Second, by not increasing the size of government, 732 is attractive to folks of all political opinions. It can be bipartisan.
Effective reduction of greenhouse gas emission can't be a Democrat thing or a Republican thing--only by devising an approach that both sides of the aisle can support can we develop a policy that can pass in WA State and have a good chance of spreading to the rest of the nation.
I-732 has a real chance. Current polls (Elway) show that it is about 8 points ahead, but there are still lots of undecided voters. Some folks have been spreading false information about whether it is revenue neutral (it is, as close as humanly possible). Others want to harvest the revenue and use them for their pet projects and help their particular groups. Not only is government ineffective in picking winning approaches (Pronto bicycle anyone?), but a revenue positive approach would make the State's tax laws MORE regressive, hurting low-incoming and minority communities.
Effective in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, bipartisan, makes the tax system fairer, highly progressive, and free market. What is not to like?
The record breaking precipitation this month is a warning. Will we be wise enough to take action before greenhouse warming profoundly changes our climate? If you are a WA State voter, it is in your hands.
from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2exOif4
And as I will explain below, it provides a dramatic reminder why voters in Washington State should support Initiative I-732, which will reduce carbon emissions in our state and could lead to a nationwide movement for effective restriction of greenhouse gas production.
Picture Courtesy of the Seattle Times
The numbers
As of 10 PM on Wednesday, the rain gauge at Seattle Tacoma Airport had 8.84 inches, .12 inches less than the record. With rain falling overnight and several more storms coming this week, there will not be any trouble breaking the October record. We will be breaking a major record.
What makes this month so remarkable is that most of the precipitation fell in a very soggy two-week period that began around October 13th (see plot of observed precipitation--blue line-- below)
We can not conclusively point to global warming as the "cause" of this month's substantial rainfall. It could be the result of the random, chaotic nature of the atmosphere. But I can tell you that climate models driven with increased greenhouse gases show a dramatically increased amount of early fall precipitation, particularly during October. In fact, I have been actively researching this issue with UW scientist Michael Warner.
Seattle's reservoir levels have zoomed up with all the rain (red line),
with current values similar to what are usually observed in December.
Below is a figure from a paper we just submitted to a peer-reviewed journal. It is a bit complicated so let me explain. Our goal was to see how the frequency of extreme precipitation days will increase under global warming in our region during the 21st century. The blue symbols represent the numbers of days in each month that a measure of extreme precipitation potential (called the water vapor flux) exceeds the 99% value for the current period using a collection of models.. The median of the various models is shown by horizontal line in the middle of the rectangle. The red figures show that same thing at the end of this century, assuming we keep up our current fossil fuel burning ways.
A very large increase, particularly in the fall. October's increase is the largest of all.
So although we can not definitively point a finger at global warming as the causal factor this month, by the second half of the century we can expect global warming to make such wet Octobers much more frequent. We are getting a taste of our future if greenhouse gases continue to rise.
I-732 is Critically Needed to Deal with the Global Warming Threat
There is no time to wait on dealing with the increasing levels of CO2 in the atmosphere. We need a powerful tool to reduce emissions in our State, one that will be so attractive that it can spread to rest of the country.
Initiative 732 is such a powerful tool, one supported by a wide range of groups, including over 50 climate scientists at the UW, the Audubon Society, the Stranger, The Weekly, The Olympian many Democratic organizations, Republican and Democratic state legislators, major political figures of our region (e.g., ex-Congressman Jim McDermott), the Seattle Green Party, and many, many more.
Initiative 732, uses the most effective approach for reducing emissions, the free market system, by taxing carbon emissions. Economists of both political persuasiona agree that taxing carbon is the most effective approach for reducing carbon emissions, and this method has been tried with great success in British Columbia, and several nations around the world.
Initiative 732 is revenue neutral, returning all the proceeds back to citizens. This has some wonderful consequences. First, the money is used to reduce the sales tax and provide a low-income household rebate. The result is that Initiative 732 works to make our take system less regressive, which is good since WA State has the most regressive taxation in the nation. Second, by not increasing the size of government, 732 is attractive to folks of all political opinions. It can be bipartisan.
Effective reduction of greenhouse gas emission can't be a Democrat thing or a Republican thing--only by devising an approach that both sides of the aisle can support can we develop a policy that can pass in WA State and have a good chance of spreading to the rest of the nation.
I-732 has a real chance. Current polls (Elway) show that it is about 8 points ahead, but there are still lots of undecided voters. Some folks have been spreading false information about whether it is revenue neutral (it is, as close as humanly possible). Others want to harvest the revenue and use them for their pet projects and help their particular groups. Not only is government ineffective in picking winning approaches (Pronto bicycle anyone?), but a revenue positive approach would make the State's tax laws MORE regressive, hurting low-incoming and minority communities.
Effective in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, bipartisan, makes the tax system fairer, highly progressive, and free market. What is not to like?
The record breaking precipitation this month is a warning. Will we be wise enough to take action before greenhouse warming profoundly changes our climate? If you are a WA State voter, it is in your hands.
from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2exOif4
Tuesday, October 25, 2016
Big Low and Big Waves Off of the Northwest Coast
A huge, deep low pressure system is right off our coast, as shown by infrared satellite image on Monday evening. You can see the cloud bands spiraling into the low center....the more turns, the deeper the low. To paraphrase Donald Trump--its HUGE.
The UW WRF forecast for 8 PM Monday night shows the pressure distribution at 8 PM. An extremely large system with an intense pressure gradient, and thus strong winds, over the eastern Pacific. Fortunately, we are just outside of the action.
Big waves can be generated by three things: strong winds, long duration, and long fetch (length over which the winds interact with the ocean). With this strong, large, and slow-moving system, these requirements were available in spades.
Here is the forecast wave heights for Tuesday evening from the NOAA/NWS WaveWatch III system. Up to 10 m (32 ft) waves off the WA coast! If you were planning a cruise offshore, you might pick another activity.
_____________________
I-732 is perhaps the most important ballot measure in decades, please support it.
I-732, the revenue-neutral carbon tax swap, will help reduce Washington State's greenhouse gas emissions, make our tax system less regressive, and potentially serve as a potent bipartisan model for the rest of the nation. More information here.
Some opponents of I-732 are spreading false information, suggesting that I-732 is not revenue neutral. This claim can be easily disproven as discussed here.
I strongly support I-732 as do many UW climate scientists. We have an unprecedented opportunity to lead the nation in reducing carbon emissions and to establish a model that could spread around the country.
Climate on tap: http://ift.tt/2fbNvl6
from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2ejM15C
The UW WRF forecast for 8 PM Monday night shows the pressure distribution at 8 PM. An extremely large system with an intense pressure gradient, and thus strong winds, over the eastern Pacific. Fortunately, we are just outside of the action.
The forecast wind gusts are substantial with peak gusts over 70 mph, with strong winds extending to just offshore of the Washington/Oregon Coast. The lowest wind speed? In the center of the storm!
Here is the forecast wave heights for Tuesday evening from the NOAA/NWS WaveWatch III system. Up to 10 m (32 ft) waves off the WA coast! If you were planning a cruise offshore, you might pick another activity.
I-732 is perhaps the most important ballot measure in decades, please support it.
I-732, the revenue-neutral carbon tax swap, will help reduce Washington State's greenhouse gas emissions, make our tax system less regressive, and potentially serve as a potent bipartisan model for the rest of the nation. More information here.
Some opponents of I-732 are spreading false information, suggesting that I-732 is not revenue neutral. This claim can be easily disproven as discussed here.
I strongly support I-732 as do many UW climate scientists. We have an unprecedented opportunity to lead the nation in reducing carbon emissions and to establish a model that could spread around the country.
Climate on tap: http://ift.tt/2fbNvl6
from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2ejM15C
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