1 PM Update

The 1 PM visible satellite image shows the approaching front/low pressure system with substantial convective clouds behind it.   The leading edge of the front is now stretching from Forks, on the NW coast, to NW Washington.

The latest radar indicates showers along the coast and over NW Washington, all of which are reaching the surface as rain.  A few snow flurries have been noted around the region.

The latest sounding above Sea-Tac airport (12:30 PM) shows a freezing level around 950 ft, which means the atmosphere is now close to cold enough for snow to reach sea level.  This morning's model output suggests some warming aloft this afternoon.

However, the time-height cross section above Seattle does not suggest much cooling aloft, which gets me worried, as does the fact that temperatures are cooler than forecast.

Thus, I have some concerns that we might see a switch to snow earlier than forecast over Puget Sound (which was around midnight) and during a period when precipitation is heavier (after midnight there are only a few snow showers).

I am also concerned that the upper level pattern (see 500 hPa heights below for 1 AM Sunday) looks fairly close to the canonical snow pattern.

In such a situation difficult, rapidly changing situation, one turns to the HRRR...the constantly updated NWS High Resolution Rapid Refresh model.   The 1-h snow forecast ending 4 PM shows snow reaching the surface over NW Washington.

 By 7 PM, there is light snow reaching Everett and the eastern Seattle suburbs.  The snow areas are where the precipitation rates are large enough to drive the snow level to the surface.

 The 2 AM and 3 AM forecast show snow over Puget Sound (particularly Snohomish County and north King County in a convergence zone.

This is an extraordinarily difficult forecast because the temperatures are so close to the line for rain versus snow.  The classic western WA dilemma.  And above is only one solution.  There are large uncertainties in the model solutions (see NWS Short Range Ensemble Forecasts of total snow) for Seattle from nearly no snow to several inches.

The bottom line:  there is a good chance of snow showers later this afternoon and evening, particularly north of Everett.    As the atmosphere cools down further later this evening and a convergence zone sets up, several inches could fall north and east of Seattle after midnight.  Will have to watch this situation very carefully during the afternoon, as my colleagues at the NWS will certainly be doing.



from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2itraki

1 PM Update

The 1 PM visible satellite image shows the approaching front/low pressure system with substantial convective clouds behind it.   The leading edge of the front is now stretching from Forks, on the NW coast, to NW Washington.

The latest radar indicates showers along the coast and over NW Washington, all of which are reaching the surface as rain.  A few snow flurries have been noted around the region.

The latest sounding above Sea-Tac airport (12:30 PM) shows a freezing level around 950 ft, which means the atmosphere is now close to cold enough for snow to reach sea level.  This morning's model output suggests some warming aloft this afternoon.

However, the time-height cross section above Seattle does not suggest much cooling aloft, which gets me worried, as does the fact that temperatures are cooler than forecast.

Thus, I have some concerns that we might see a switch to snow earlier than forecast over Puget Sound (which was around midnight) and during a period when precipitation is heavier (after midnight there are only a few snow showers).

I am also concerned that the upper level pattern (see 500 hPa heights below for 1 AM Sunday) looks fairly close to the canonical snow pattern.

In such a situation difficult, rapidly changing situation, one turns to the HRRR...the constantly updated NWS High Resolution Rapid Refresh model.   The 1-h snow forecast ending 4 PM shows snow reaching the surface over NW Washington.

 By 7 PM, there is light snow reaching Everett and the eastern Seattle suburbs.  The snow areas are where the precipitation rates are large enough to drive the snow level to the surface.

 The 2 AM and 3 AM forecast show snow over Puget Sound (particularly Snohomish County and north King County in a convergence zone.

This is an extraordinarily difficult forecast because the temperatures are so close to the line for rain versus snow.  The classic western WA dilemma.  And above is only one solution.  There are large uncertainties in the model solutions (see NWS Short Range Ensemble Forecasts of total snow) for Seattle from nearly no snow to several inches.

The bottom line:  there is a good chance of snow showers later this afternoon and evening, particularly north of Everett.    As the atmosphere cools down further later this evening and a convergence zone sets up, several inches could fall north and east of Seattle after midnight.  Will have to watch this situation very carefully during the afternoon, as my colleagues at the NWS will certainly be doing.



from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2itraki

Othello World Championship Takes Place in Game’s Birthplace

New Year's Eve Snow for the Puget Sound Lowlands?

Confidence is high in a transition to much colder temperatures over the Northwest starting on Sunday, but what about lowland snow around Puget Sound?

Will there be snow flakes flying as folks return home from their New Year's celebrations early Sunday morning?  Perhaps...but not too much.

The general situation for Saturday/Sunday is clear.   As shown in the upper level map for 4 PM on Saturday, an upper level trough will move southward over the Northwest (with ridging over the Gulf of Alaska).  The trough will provide upward motion that brings clouds and precipitation, and as it passes, cold arctic air from the continental interior will sweep south and west over our region.

By 1 AM Sunday morning, cold air (blue colors in surface chart below) will be moving into Washington State, with a trough of surface low pressure just south of Seattle.

At 10 AM Monday, very cold air has spread over the Northwest, with easterly flow pushing the frigid, arctic flow over the Pacific.

Although we will have both upward motion and cold air, the configuration above it not ideal for much snow.  For substantial Puget Sound snow one wants the upper trough to extend farther offshore, with the associated surface low moving southward along the coast.  That would both draw cold air southward and provide precipitation at the same time.

So what do the models show?  The European Center ensemble (many model) snow total prediction for Seattle suggests only light snow, mainly after midnight--perhaps .5 to 1 inch.   A much greater risk is suggested for next weekend (roughly 6 inches).

The high-resolution European Center snow forecast through 4 AM Sunday shows light snow over the west (0-1 inches around Puget Sound near sea level, 1-2 inches near the Cascade foothills.

The National Weather Service (GEFS) ensemble forecasts shows a mean snow total around 1 inch by Sunday AM.  This is snowfall, not snow depth.

So the bottom line in all this is that you should expect increasing clouds on Saturday as the trough approaches.  Light rain will begin over the lowlands around dinner time and then transition to snow showers between 10 PM Saturday and 1 AM on Sunday.   A few hours of light snow will follow before the atmosphere dries out on Sunday in the cold air.   Much of the lowland snow will be focused on a Puget Sound Convergence Zone over north Seattle and the arctic front--the zone of transition to the cold, continental air.  Most of the region will end up with little to perhaps an inch of snow.  Not a big event, unless our forecasts are way off.

As noted earlier, the cold forecast for next week looks solid... the coldest period around here since December 2008.   The latest European Center forecasts for high and low temperatures at Seattle suggest highs near freezing and lows in the mid to lower 20s for Monday through Thursday.  Teens in cooler locations away from water.

Good time to remove exterior hoses, protect faucets, and block exterior vents.  And keep pets inside.



from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2iNAnAe

New Year's Eve Snow for the Puget Sound Lowlands?

Confidence is high in a transition to much colder temperatures over the Northwest starting on Sunday, but what about lowland snow around Puget Sound?

Will there be snow flakes flying as folks return home from their New Year's celebrations early Sunday morning?  Perhaps...but not too much.

The general situation for Saturday/Sunday is clear.   As shown in the upper level map for 4 PM on Saturday, an upper level trough will move southward over the Northwest (with ridging over the Gulf of Alaska).  The trough will provide upward motion that brings clouds and precipitation, and as it passes, cold arctic air from the continental interior will sweep south and west over our region.

By 1 AM Sunday morning, cold air (blue colors in surface chart below) will be moving into Washington State, with a trough of surface low pressure just south of Seattle.

At 10 AM Monday, very cold air has spread over the Northwest, with easterly flow pushing the frigid, arctic flow over the Pacific.

Although we will have both upward motion and cold air, the configuration above it not ideal for much snow.  For substantial Puget Sound snow one wants the upper trough to extend farther offshore, with the associated surface low moving southward along the coast.  That would both draw cold air southward and provide precipitation at the same time.

So what do the models show?  The European Center ensemble (many model) snow total prediction for Seattle suggests only light snow, mainly after midnight--perhaps .5 to 1 inch.   A much greater risk is suggested for next weekend (roughly 6 inches).

The high-resolution European Center snow forecast through 4 AM Sunday shows light snow over the west (0-1 inches around Puget Sound near sea level, 1-2 inches near the Cascade foothills.

The National Weather Service (GEFS) ensemble forecasts shows a mean snow total around 1 inch by Sunday AM.  This is snowfall, not snow depth.

So the bottom line in all this is that you should expect increasing clouds on Saturday as the trough approaches.  Light rain will begin over the lowlands around dinner time and then transition to snow showers between 10 PM Saturday and 1 AM on Sunday.   A few hours of light snow will follow before the atmosphere dries out on Sunday in the cold air.   Much of the lowland snow will be focused on a Puget Sound Convergence Zone over north Seattle and the arctic front--the zone of transition to the cold, continental air.  Most of the region will end up with little to perhaps an inch of snow.  Not a big event, unless our forecasts are way off.

As noted earlier, the cold forecast for next week looks solid... the coldest period around here since December 2008.   The latest European Center forecasts for high and low temperatures at Seattle suggest highs near freezing and lows in the mid to lower 20s for Monday through Thursday.  Teens in cooler locations away from water.

Good time to remove exterior hoses, protect faucets, and block exterior vents.  And keep pets inside.



from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2iNAnAe

Study Shows Women Now Drink Nearly as Much Alcohol as Men

【Unlocking Word Meanings】
今日の単語・フレーズ

Read the following words/expressions found in today’s article. 

1. consumption / kənˈsʌmp ʃən / (n.) – the amount used

Example: This car’s gas consumption is too high.

2. zoom in (on something) / zum ɪn / (phrasal v.) – to give special attention to something

Example: We were supposed to discuss world history, but we zoomed in on the history of Asian civilizations.

3. prevalence / ˈprɛv ə ləns / (n.) – the condition of being widespread

Example: The prevalence of underage drinking is alarming.

4. workforce / ˈwɜrk fɔrs / (n.) – the total number of people who are working or who can work

Example: Every year, millions of young professionals enter the workforce.

5. dominate / ˈdɒm əˌneɪt / (v.) – to control the majority of something

Example: Men dominate the IT industry.


【Article】
ニュース記事

Read the text below.

A recent study shows that women are now drinking as much alcohol as men—and are increasing their health risks as a result. A study from Australia’s National Drug and Alcohol Research Center examined the changes in the ratio of male to female alcohol consumption over the years. The research zoomed in on how the drinking habits of men and women have become similar over the last three centuries. They found that among people born between 1991 and 2000, the number of males and females who drink alcohol is almost equal. The research showed that historically, more men drank alcohol than women. For example, men born between 1891 and 1910 were twice as likely as their female peers to drink. However, the number of female drinkers became almost equal to the number of male drinkers among those born between 1991 and 2000. Among the reasons for the increased prevalence of drinking among women is the change in women’s roles in society. The number of women in the workforce increased after World War II, and as women began entering industries that were once dominated by men, they also began adopting drinking habits such as after-work drinking. In relation to this finding, the US National Statistics also found that women who hold management or professional positions drink more than other women. However, with the increase of women’s alcohol intake comes the increase of drinking-related health problems among them. According to the US National Institute of Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (NIAAA), alcohol-related problems affect women more easily than men because of biological differences. Excessive drinking raises risks for liver inflammation, heart disease, and breast cancer in women.

【Viewpoint Discussion】
ディスカッションテーマ

Enjoy a discussion with your tutor.  

Discussion A

·         Do you agree that women drink as much as men nowadays? Why or why not?

·         Aside from work culture, what do you think are other reasons why women drink more nowadays?

Discussion B

·         Describe the drinking culture in your country (i.e., on what occasions, with whom, etc.).

·         In your opinion, should an individual give up alcohol entirely to take care of his/her health? Discuss.

from 英会話ニュース教材 Daily News Article | 英会話ならレアジョブ http://ift.tt/2ixXiAv

An Amazing Rainshadow

 The regional radar image at 2 PM was amazing and dramatic (see below).  Moist flow from the west is approaching our coast, rising on the western side of the Olympics and sinking on its eastern side.  The result is distinct hole in precipitation to the lee (east) of the Olympic barrier....a rainshadow.  As the air rises again on the Cascades, precipitation reforms.

Why is the rainshadow over Seattle to Everett rather than over Sequim?  Because of the westerly wind direction aloft rather the typical south-southwesterly flow of winter.

But what is really exceptional is the satellite imagery.    Here is the image from the NASA MODIS satellite...you see the black, cloudless  "hole" downstream of the Olympics.  It is sunny there!

Here is a blow up of the "cloud shadow".   Really dramatic.

from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2ivBIfG

An Amazing Rainshadow

 The regional radar image at 2 PM was amazing and dramatic (see below).  Moist flow from the west is approaching our coast, rising on the western side of the Olympics and sinking on its eastern side.  The result is distinct hole in precipitation to the lee (east) of the Olympic barrier....a rainshadow.  As the air rises again on the Cascades, precipitation reforms.

Why is the rainshadow over Seattle to Everett rather than over Sequim?  Because of the westerly wind direction aloft rather the typical south-southwesterly flow of winter.

But what is really exceptional is the satellite imagery.    Here is the image from the NASA MODIS satellite...you see the black, cloudless  "hole" downstream of the Olympics.  It is sunny there!

Here is a blow up of the "cloud shadow".   Really dramatic.

from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2ivBIfG

Man Returns Fifty-Year-Old Message in a Bottle

Coca-Cola Japan and Kirin Plan Partnership

The Potential for a Major Cold Spell in the Northwest

Although temperatures have been relatively normal for the last few days, the last month has been decidedly colder than normal over the Northwest, as suggested by this map, which shows the deviation from normal for the past 30 days.  Much of our region has been 2-4F colder than typical during the past month.  Such cold temperatures have brought us a very healthy snowpack.

But the latest model runs are suggesting a much colder period next week, one that would be far colder than we have seen in many years.  

Since we are looking forward in time for an extended period, we must think probabilistically and thus I will show you mainly ensemble (many forecast) output.

We can start with European Center ensemble forecasts (51 forecasts) for surface temperatures (max and min) over Seattle.  The range of their ensembles are shown by the blue bracket, while the ensemble mean (often very skillful) by the green line.  Their single high-resolution run by the black line.  50% of the ensemble members are within the green box.

Note that just after the new year, the high temps drop below freezing and then plateau out around 25-28F.  But uncertainty gets large as well, with some ensemble members staying warm.

The US GFS ensemble, shown below, does something similar (Seattle temperature shown, ensemble mean indicated by the black line, high-res member, blue line).  Much colder next week, but with substantial uncertainty.

The forecast surface weather maps for next week based on the high-resolution NWS GFS model are chilling, with cold air (blue colors) extending over the whole region.

The latest weather.com forecast (which is generally excellent) is going for cold and sunny early next week as the cold, arctic air spreads south.  Is there a chance of snow as the cold air moves in?  The answer is yes...but the uncertainties are too large to speculate on that now.  

I feel sorry for those Northwesteners who have travelled to warmer climes over the holidays....they are going to suffer terribly next week, while the cold-hardened folks who remained will be more comfortable.




from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2hKU6Al

The Potential for a Major Cold Spell in the Northwest

Although temperatures have been relatively normal for the last few days, the last month has been decidedly colder than normal over the Northwest, as suggested by this map, which shows the deviation from normal for the past 30 days.  Much of our region has been 2-4F colder than typical during the past month.  Such cold temperatures have brought us a very healthy snowpack.

But the latest model runs are suggesting a much colder period next week, one that would be far colder than we have seen in many years.  

Since we are looking forward in time for an extended period, we must think probabilistically and thus I will show you mainly ensemble (many forecast) output.

We can start with European Center ensemble forecasts (51 forecasts) for surface temperatures (max and min) over Seattle.  The range of their ensembles are shown by the blue bracket, while the ensemble mean (often very skillful) by the green line.  Their single high-resolution run by the black line.  50% of the ensemble members are within the green box.

Note that just after the new year, the high temps drop below freezing and then plateau out around 25-28F.  But uncertainty gets large as well, with some ensemble members staying warm.

The US GFS ensemble, shown below, does something similar (Seattle temperature shown, ensemble mean indicated by the black line, high-res member, blue line).  Much colder next week, but with substantial uncertainty.

The forecast surface weather maps for next week based on the high-resolution NWS GFS model are chilling, with cold air (blue colors) extending over the whole region.

The latest weather.com forecast (which is generally excellent) is going for cold and sunny early next week as the cold, arctic air spreads south.  Is there a chance of snow as the cold air moves in?  The answer is yes...but the uncertainties are too large to speculate on that now.  

I feel sorry for those Northwesteners who have travelled to warmer climes over the holidays....they are going to suffer terribly next week, while the cold-hardened folks who remained will be more comfortable.




from Cliff Mass Weather Blog http://ift.tt/2hKU6Al